Expert Strategy Advice for Betting on Tennis
Tennis betting offers tons of opportunities to make money because of the large number of tournaments each year and the wide coverage online.
There are several matches played almost every day, so building a working tennis betting strategy can lead to consistent returns. That’s not easy to achieve but we share various systems on this page that can help you.
We recommend visiting our main tennis betting guide first if you are new to betting on tennis. That’s where we cover some fundamental tips, the top sites to bet with, and other useful information.
All that can provide a solid basis for learning some winning tennis betting strategies.
Contents of Our Guide to Tennis Betting Strategies
Key Factors for Tennis Betting Strategies
Before we move on to our tennis betting strategies, we want to detail certain key factors that apply to most of the different approaches you might try.
Here are the areas that you need to consider in almost every situation if you want long-term success from betting on tennis.
- Overall Player Quality – You should learn how to evaluate the different players. The ATP and WTA rankings are a good start, but there are other factors like career record, tournament wins, and style of play.
- Current Form – Overall player quality is crucial but there are big fluctuations in the form of most players. Checking the latest results and players’ current health are factors you need to consider.
- Motivation – Most of the top players in the world target the biggest events, so they might underperform in smaller tournaments when they are less motivated. Motivation can also be important when it comes to specific matches. A lower-ranked player may raise their game against a top opponent, for example.
- Surface – Different surfaces suit different styles. The slow clay courts are excellent for baseliners, while grass courts favor aggressive athletes with a strong serve. Always analyze the surface if you want your system for betting on tennis to work.
- Playing Conditions – Some tennis tournaments take place in extreme heat. There’s wind and rain on other occasions. Some players perform better in tough weather conditions than others, so be sure to have that in mind.
You should include all of the above in your tennis betting systems one way or another. Every little factor can be the difference between winning and losing your tennis bets.
Using Stats and Trends in Your Tennis Betting Strategy
We almost included this in the previous section. However, analyzing stats and trends is so important that it deserves some special attention.
There are plenty of free online resources for tennis data, for both men and women, and you should take full advantage of them. Statistics can give you an objective overview of each player while recognizing trends early can help you identify value bets and beat the bookies.
Here are some examples of notable stats you can use when betting on tennis.
- Winners – Measures the number of points won by the player in which the opponent didn’t manage to reach the ball.
- Unforced Errors – Shows the number of mistakes made by a player while not under any pressure from the opponent.
- First Serve % – Shows the success percentage of the player’s first serve.
- First Serve Points Won – The percentage of points won by the player on first serve.
- % of Return Games Won – How frequently a player wins games when returning serve.
These only represent a fraction of the stats you can find online, but they are arguably the ones you should rely on the most for your tennis betting strategies.
We have written a dedicated guide to using stats and trends for betting on tennis. It includes details of several useful stats, how they are measured, and how to use them in your favor. Check it out if you want more information on this topic.
Strategies for Betting on Tennis Match Results
The tennis season brings us thousands of fixtures every year, so finding a good system for betting on tennis matches can be extremely profitable.
One of the potential approaches is to go after the most popular markets related to the outcome of the match; match result, handicaps, or correct score.
Here’s our strategy advice for each of them.
Betting on the Match Winner in Tennis
This simple market allows you to bet on the winner of each match. Although this is a straightforward betting market, it doesn’t mean that making money is easy.
There are several different strategies you can use here, with the following among the best.
- Backing Surface Specialists – Some players on the tour are notably better on specific surfaces, such as clay or grass. Backing players on their favorite courts can be a good starting point.
- Backing Underdogs That Care More – The best players on the tour usually try to peak during Grand Slam competitions and they use other tournaments to build their form without pushing themselves to the limit. When they meet a solid opponent who is highly motivated, that could lead to surprising defeats. Looking for such spots can be a profitable strategy.
- Men’s Grand Slam Parlays – The favorites often win with ease in the early stages of men’s Grand Slams, but the odds are low. Combining a few of the top players in an accumulator or parlay can increase the returns without hugely increasing risk.
Using these tennis betting systems effectively requires a lot of research. You can definitely make money from them, but make sure you’re prepared to put in the effort and dig deep into data analysis.
The best tennis betting sites offer several handicap options for mainstream matches and you should certainly consider this market.
There are two types of spreads here, depending on the type of handicap. The first one is the set handicap which is a preferred choice for many people.
A good strategy for set handicaps is to back major favorites. The odds for them to simply win are usually very low, but backing them with a set handicap is a viable alternative that gets you a higher price.
The other type of handicaps are game handicaps. They are usually much closer, with the probabilities of each outcome around the 50% mark for the main lines. There are two good systems that are worth targeting with these.
- Aggressive Favorites – Certain top players are known for their aggressive style that leads to many breaks in the match. Backing them to cover the games spread is a good approach.
- Strong Underdogs – If you like the chances of an underdog but prefer a safer wager, you can back them on the handicap market for a better chance of winning.
It’s crucial to understand certain key numbers when preparing for the game handicaps, no matter what strategy you’re using. Most sets in men’s matches are decided by a single break, so the most common difference per set is 2 or 3 games, depending on who is serving.
That should be the starting point of your calculations, factoring in other potential breaks if you think they are likely.
Correct Score Betting
Finally, we have the correct score betting. This is less popular and not available at every single sportsbook online.
The market is similar to the sets handicap option and you can use similar strategies. The main difference comes in men’s Grand Slam matches where the best-of-five format increases the number of potential scores.
A good approach for Grand Slam matches is to back two outcomes to cover your risk a bit. For example, 3-1 and 3-2 for the favorite in a fixture where you expect the underdog to put up a reasonable fight.
Totals Betting Strategy for Tennis
A great alternative to targeting tennis betting markets that are related to the match-winner are the ones that depend on the total score.
All tennis sportsbooks online have them for pretty much every encounter covered, so you will have more than enough opportunities to win some cash.
Here are the best tennis betting strategies for the main totals markets.
Set Totals Betting
The first popular option is the set totals and it’s an interesting one. The main question you need to ask here is if the underdog can snatch a set or two. That’s the cornerstone of most strategies for this market.
A particularly good approach is to look for underrated underdogs and bet on the overs. Here are some examples of such cases.
- Young Players on the Rise – Young players take a while to adjust to the senior tour even if they’re very talented. There’s always a breakout moment during which they are underrated by the bookies based on their early struggles.
- Players Defending Many Points – If a player had a strong run in the same tournament the previous season, he or she will be highly motivated to defend the ranking points earned and that could lead to strong performances.
- Home Advantage – If an athlete plays in his or her home country, the support of the crowd could be helpful.
- Favorites with Questionable Health – Sometimes, the favorite in a match might be returning after an injury or there might be rumors about a health problem.
If you can find a reliable way to identify underrated players, the total sets market is one of the best ways to capitalize on that.
Game Totals Betting
The other mainstream totals market is related to the number of games in a match. There are different strategies that you can try here and most of them are focused on the following two main factors in the initial calculations.
- Number of Sets – The number of sets is the number one factor here. Realistically, you can expect 9-10 games per set in most matches and that’s how you have to calculate the expected totals.
- Games Per Set – There are certain exceptions to plan around when it comes to the number of games per set. If there’s a clear favorite who is pretty good at breaking the opponents, you might be looking for something for 7 or 8 per set, while tough matches could produce an average of 11-12.
A good totals strategy for tennis betting based on the above is to look for close matches between players with a strong serve. They usually result in long sets and backing the over makes a lot of sense.
Other Tennis Totals
Bookmakers offer plenty of other interesting totals betting markets for tennis, especially for the bigger events. Here are some of them.
- Number of Aces – You can bet on the total number of aces in the match or the total of each of the players.
- Number of Double Faults – The logic is similar here and again a bet can cover both players or only one of them.
- Number of Breaks – This one is only available for some big tournaments, mostly Grand Slams.
- Number of Winners – You can sometimes bet on the number of winners registered by a player.
It’s hard to find a consistent tennis gambling system for any of the above and the best advice we could give you is to dig into the stats. Look for career numbers and recent trends for the most accurate results.
Betting Strategy for Tennis Futures
Most people target individual matches but there are also tennis futures available for big competitions including Grand Slams, the Olympics, the ATP, WTA Finals, and more.
You can back the tournament winner, pick a player to reach the final, name both finalists, or back an athlete to win his or her quarter of the draw.
Here are the best strategies for tennis futures and outrights.
Early Betting on Tournament Winners
The futures odds for big tennis tournaments are often available weeks and even months in advance. Placing early wagers as opposed to placing your bets right before the start of the event can be advisable in the right spots.
Bookmakers usually play it safe and offer low odds on the main favorites, so backing a well-known contender is not ideal.
However, some of the underdogs might be heavily underrated and can represent a good opportunity to make some money.
Backing Rising Youngsters to Win Women’s Grand Slams
You will rarely see young players win men’s Grand Slams because of the different format of the biggest tournaments. The best-of-five matches are draining physically and mentally.
They are uncomfortable for the upcoming stars who have played in the best-of-three their entire career, so the transition is painful and can take a few years for even the most talented guys.
That’s not the case in women’s tennis, though, where Grand Slam fixtures are in the same format as all of the other tournaments. As a result, we often see talented teenagers leave their mark by winning big competitions and the odds are usually very attractive.
Placing a few wagers on rising stars for major tournaments can be a viable tennis futures strategy. Just make sure there’s no dominant favorite and do your homework before risking your money.
Other Strategies for Tennis Futures
We have several other suggestions for tennis futures betting strategies that you can use when going after long-term markets.
- Betting After the Start of the Tournament – Some people prefer to see a round or two of the competition before placing their wagers and that’s a viable strategy because it gives you more data to work with.
- Cautious Underdog Betting – You don’t have to back an underdog to win the competition, you can pick the player to reach the final or even win their quarter of the draw instead. It’s a safer approach and the odds are usually high enough to offer value.
- Backing Multiple Players to Win – There’s often enough value in the odds to make multiple betting picks. For example, backing one of the favorites and one or two dark horses improves your chances to win significantly.
All of these are viable if you work hard enough to prepare and find ways to improve them. Mix in some stats with your personal opinions, check out what other tennis specialists think, and make sure to always look for those good value bets.
Strategy for Live Tennis Betting
We love live betting on tennis and it’s another area that can bring you a lot of success. With so many matches available, unique markets, and constant swings, you have all the ingredients you need for making money.
Of course, you also need a strategy for live tennis betting! It’s hard to bring order tp something so chaotic as in-play tennis wagers, but there are certain rules that are applicable to most approaches, such as the following.
|Objective Factors||Subjective Factors|
|Pre-match Stats||Eye Test|
|Live Stats||Body Language|
You should analyze all of the above and make sure to use them in your strategy. Some people lean heavily on one factor, like body language. Betting against players that are visibly upset could work well, but you should always explore other criteria, too.
If you are interested in more tips that can help you find a profitable live betting system for tennis, you should visit the following page.
More Betting Strategy and Advice
Our website is a comprehensive resource for sports gambling, and we have plenty of other pages that can help you improve your tennis betting strategy.
Here are more pages you should check out.
- Sports Betting Guide – Our main sports betting guide is a great place to start if you don’t have much experience.
- Bankroll Management and Staking Plans – Even if you have the best tennis betting strategy, proper bankroll management is still crucial.
- Arbitrage Betting – Some tennis systems rely on arbitrages and this page can help you with everything you need to know about this topic.
- The Hedging Technique – Hedging is an extremely useful technique for live betting on tennis because of the constant movement of the odds.
If you don’t have the time and energy to build your own tennis betting strategies, we have experts in the sport that share their opinions and analysis of various events on our tennis blog.
We also have a tennis picks section where you can find their recommended wagers for individual games.