Soccer Betting Strategy: Winning Tips for Soccer Bets

Soccer Betting Strategy: Before You Get Started

Before reviewing strategies for soccer betting, make sure that you understand the very basics of sports betting. Here is a quick primer on the essential need-to-know information for beginners when signing up for soccer betting sites.

Start With Small Bets

Small is relative, so another way to think about this is to only gamble with what you can afford to lose. Besides, there’s no point in laying down big wagers if you aren’t familiar with soccer or sports betting since you’re less likely to win.

Follow the Sport Closely

Sportsbooks make their margin off of beginner gamblers throwing cash on any and all markets. Take the time to learn trends, roster construction, team systems, and top players so that you can make an informed bet.

Understand the Difference in Bet Types

There are numerous ways to bet on sports, and in terms of soccer, there are hundreds of different markets to choose from. There can be multiple bet types that lead to the same outcome, whether it’s straight up bets on the winner or betting on the handicap. There are also more in-depth bets like Asian handicap bets and goal-based wagers available. While your team may win the straight up moneyline, they may not cover the handicap or spread. Knowing the difference in bet types can be the difference of you winning or burning cash.

Record All Wagers

Track your betting habits across wager amounts, profits and losses, and types of betting markets you’re selecting. Keeping this habit can help ensure safe play when sports betting, and minimize progressing symptoms of gambling addiction. Sports betting is for entertainment purposes only, not to add a stream of income.

Choosing Which Soccer Competitions to Bet On

There’s at least one professional league in most countries, as well as several competitions. Then there are the continental competitions such as the UEFA Champion’s League, and international competitions such as the FIFA World Cup.

High Profile vs Low Profile Competitions

One of the first (and most important) things you need to think about is whether you’re better off betting on high profile competitions or low-profile competitions. Both of these types of competitions offer a wide variety of options, and each comes with its own list of pros and cons. We’ll start with the main pros of betting on high profile competitions.

Lots of televised games
Extensive media coverage
Readily available information and data
Wagers accepted at most bookmakers and betting sites
Wide range of betting options

The cons of betting on the high profile competitions are as follows.

Bookmakers and betting sites pay close attention to these competitions
Value in the betting markets often disappears quickly

Leagues vs Knockout Competitions

Another factor to consider is the format of the competition(s) you choose to bet on. Most competitions are played in either a league format or a knockout format, and there are a few differences between the two. Here are the key ones.

Volume of games
Likelihood of upsets
Disparity in quality

International vs Club Competitions

Competitions involving national teams are a very different proposition to competitions involving club teams. Club teams play and train together on a weekly basis. If we follow them closely enough, we get to know all about their preferred playing styles, how well the players complement each other, what their strengths and weaknesses are and all kinds of other relevant details.

National teams train together just a handful of times each year, and they play fewer games. The makeup of the teams can change significantly from one game to the next, as different players may be selected by the national manager. No matter how closely we follow these teams, we’ll never get to know them as well as we know the club teams.

The Different Types of Soccer Betting Markets

There’s more variance in betting markets that who wins and who’s scoring a goal. Let’s take a closer glance at all the various soccer betting markets that you can take advantage of.

Betting on Soccer Matches

Result-based wagers are the simplest soccer bets out there. The most popular soccer wager is the moneyline, which enables you to predict the outcome of any given game. However, there are dozens of other markets for betting on individual soccer matches.

The table below details several of the most popular options.

Most Popular Betting Markets for Soccer Games

Betting Market	Description
Moneyline	Simply pick a team and back them to win. Alternatively, select the draw option.
Both Teams to Score	There are two options here on whether both teams will score – yes and no.
Correct Score	Predict the exact score of the game. For example, 2-1 or 3-4.
First/Anytime Goalscorer	Which player scores the first goal, or any point in a game.
Over/Under Goals	Choosing the over or under on the set total number of goals in a match.
Half-Time Result	Bet on who won the half-time outcome or if there’s a draw
Half-Time/Full-Time Combo	A bet on what the half time result & the full time result will be. Both components of the wager right to win.
Clean Sheet	Bet on a team to keep a clean sheet.
Handicap Betting	Used to make a game more of an even contest, this market gets a team a virtual deficit.
Double Chance	This covers two of three possible results. Back a team to win or draw, or back either team to win.
Draw No Bet	Back a team to win the match. If the game is drawn, you get your stake back.

Futures and Outright Soccer Betting Markets

Although gambling on individual matches is the most mainstream option for soccer bettors, here are futures and outright soccer markets we recommend you explore first.

Tournament Winner – Pick a team and back them to win the given competition.
To Reach the Final – Predict which teams will reach the final.
Method of Victory — This prop is only available for soccer games that can go to extra-time and/or a penalty shoot-out. Bet on a team to win in regular time, a team to win in extra-time or a team to win by a penalty shoot-out.
Promotion/Relegation – If the league you are betting on has promotion and relegation, wager on which teams will leave the league at both ends of the standings.
Top Goalscorer – Choose the top scorer in any given league or tournament.

Futures enable you to bet on a league or tournament before it gets underway. Since your wager isn’t decided until the end of the event, these markets invariably offer great value. Futures and outrights are classed as “long-term” wagers. This is because they’re usually available well in advance of a competition starting. However, we don’t have to place these wagers as soon as the betting markets open. In fact, we actually have three options for when to place them.

Weeks or months in advance of the competition starting.
Shortly before the competition starts.
After the competition has started.

The best time to place futures is shortly before a competition starts, or after it’s begun. However, there are occasions when it’s worth taking a risk in advance. A good example is a tournament such as the FIFA World Cup, which only takes place every four years.

How to Pick a Golden Boot Winner

If you’re looking for a betting strategy for the FIFA World Cup top goalscorer, look no further. Below, we tell you how to predict which player will get their hands on the Golden Boot. When you scour the bookies’ list of Golden Boot favorites, you will always see a host of big-name stars. But how do you know which players to back and which players to avoid? Well, when picking the World Cup top scorer, we suggest asking the following questions.

Does the player have favorable group games?
Will the player’s team go far in the tournament?
Has the player just enjoyed a prolific domestic season?
Is the player on a penalty kick duty for this team?
Does the player have a good international record?

First, you should pick a player who has easy group games. If a striker for a top team is facing one or two of the tournament’s weakest teams in the group stage, the chances are they are going to score multiple goals. The 2018 World Cup Golden Boot winner – England’s Harry Kane – scored five of his six goals during the group stage. After bagging a brace against Tunisia, Kane netted a hat-trick as the Three Lions dispatched Panama. It is also worth noting that Kane took England’s penalties in Russia. In fact, he converted three spot-kicks at the 2018 World Cup. A player who takes his team’s penalties is always more likely to finish as the tournament’s top scorer.

As well as studying players’ international tally, you should also look at their recent domestic record. If a player is in good goalscoring form in the lead-up to the tournament, backing them to win the Golden Boot is a good idea.

Prop Bets and Specials

A prop is a wager made regarding the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event in a game or competition. Props are not generally tied to the final score or outcome of a game. Here are a few examples of popular soccer specials and prop bets.

Soccer Props and Specials to Look Out For

Betting Market	Description
Which Manager Will Be Sacked Next?	This is a common prop for the EPL. Predict which manager will get fired next.
Total Number of Goals in a Tournament	Predicting the total number of goals scored in a competition.
Nationality of Winning Team	This prop often appears in continental club competitions. You can select England, Spain, etc.
Player Transfers	Wager on which club a certain player will sign for next.
Will a Penalty Be Awarded?	Predict whether a penalty will be awarded in a game. Simply select Yes or No.
Will a Player Get Sent Off?	Predict whether you think a player will receive a red card in a match.

At the end of the day, there are always tons of soccer props and specials on offer. Most top sportsbooks dish up prop bets, while some bookies pride themselves on specials. As we already mentioned, it pays to shop around to find the best options.

Live Soccer Betting

The popularity of live (or in-play) betting has skyrocketed in recent years. Thanks largely to the rise of mobile gambling, many bookmakers enable you to bet on soccer games while they’re happening. Here are some of the live soccer betting markets you can expect to find online.

Next Goalscorer – Pick a player and back them to score the next goal in a match.
Next Player to Receive a Card – If you think a player is on the verge of getting a booking, back them to receive the next yellow or red card.
Next Team to Score – Choose the next team to score a goal in any given game.
Next Team to Win a Corner – Predict which team will get to the next corner.
Over/Under Total Cards — Betting on the total number of yellow and red cards shown during a match.
Time of Next Goal – Determine the time of the next goal by selecting options such as 0-15 minutes and 75-90 minutes.
Winning Margin — How many goals the winning team will win by. All that matters is the margin of victory regardless of winning team.

To find out more about in-play gambling, head over to our guide to live soccer betting.

Understanding Parlays/Accumulators

Usually referred to as a parlay in North America and an accumulator elsewhere in the world, a combination bet consists of multiple selections. Each selection must land to win the bet. Sportsbook operators love when bettors use parlays/bet builders/accumulators, because bettors often lose these types of bets through the extended odds and multiple outcomes needed to hit.

As you would expect, the more selections you add to your parlay, the higher the odds will be. At the same time, more selections give you a smaller chance of success. The key with parlays is to find the right balance between probability and value. You want to include as few selections as possible while ensuring the odds will land you a rewarding profit. There are several of these wagers available for soccer, and two that are especially popular. These are the scorecast and the wincast. Let’s take a look at how they work.

Tips for Placing Soccer Parlays

Here are a key considerations and tips ahead of betting on soccer parlays.

Avoid Heavy Favorites – There is no point in combining multiple heavy favorites. If teams are priced below 1.30 to win, they won’t drastically enhance the overall odds of your parlay.
Combine Different Markets – Don’t just stick to simple moneylines. Instead, use goal-based markets, props, and other options to boost the prices of your parlay.
Don’t Select Too Many Legs – Adding three or four legs to your parlay is fine, but if you include nine or ten legs, your chances of winning will drop substantially.
Consider Form and League Positions – Just because a team’s odds enhance your parlay price, it doesn’t always mean it’s the right thing to do. That’s why it’s important to check the form.
Think About Fixture Relevance – If a certain game in your parlay has nothing riding on it, you should consider removing it because the pace of competition won’t drive action.

Best Strategy for Advanced Soccer Bettors

Ready to take your soccer betting to the next level? Then it’s time to get stuck into our advanced strategies for soccer betting. In this section, we share a series of expert soccer betting strategy tips. From goal-based wagers to the double chance market, and from parlays to in-playing gambling, these advanced soccer betting strategies are not to be missed.

Backing Heavy Favorites Using Handicaps

Backing heavy favorites is a safe betting strategy in itself. By and large, teams priced at 1.30 or lower tend to win soccer matches – that’s just the way it goes. However, this isn’t the most profitable betting strategy. If you want to back a team to win at 1.20, you would have to part ways with $100 just to make a $20 profit.

If a team is priced at 1.30 or lower to win, the chances of them tasting victory are very high. When this is the case, the bookies’ underdog will likely be priced around 9.00 or 10.00 – underlining the gulf in quality between the two sides. Given the gulf in quality, you would expect the favorite to beat the outsider by a significant goal margin, right? This is when the handicaps come into play, but how do they work? Consider the following odds.

Team A to Win: 1.30
Team A (-1): 1.90
Team A (-2): 3.50

The –1 handicap gives the favorite a virtual one-goal deficit to overcome. This means they will need to win by two clear goals for the bet to land. Similarly, applying a –2 handicap means the favorite must win by three clear goals for your wager to be successful. Placing bets using handicaps can even the outcome in a match with a heavy favorite, and can be a relatively safe soccer betting strategy that transforms low odds matchups into profitable prices with ease.

Backing Away Teams Using “Double Chance”

Home-field advantage makes a big difference when it comes to building a profitable soccer betting strategy. However, there are instances where backing the away team makes more sense.

Bookies frequently give away teams inflated odds, simply because they are playing away from home. Even if the away side is in good form and stands a good chance of winning, they are usually priced higher than the home team. When this is the case, the “double chance” wager is your best friend, as it covers two of three possible results between each side winning and a draw.

Let’s say that Team A is priced at 2.00 to win on home soil. Meanwhile, the away side – Team B – is priced at 3.50 to claim the road victory. The two sides are level on points in the standings, but Team A is enduring a five-game winless run. In this instance, you would select Team B and Draw – eliminating the home win option.

The double chance odds will be lower. But since the Team B win is already at 3.50, you will still get a price somewhere in the region of 1.80. Bearing in mind this market covers two of the three possible outcomes, that is excellent value. In summary, this is strong soccer betting strategy to use when an in-form away team is the bookies’ underdog and the home side is also on a bad run.

External Factors to Consider When Betting on Soccer

Finding an edge or angle is key when trying to win a bet, and outside factors can impact the final result of a match or fitness of a player. Here are some factors you should consider when making an informed bet.

The Role of the Manager

The manager has one of the most critical roles in soccer as they oversee the selection of the coaching staff, are involved in the transfers, develops the team, works on the tactics, motivates the players among other duties that are vital for the success of each soccer side. As the head of the team, they have direct influence on the success of a team.

A good manager can lift even an average group of players and push them to punch over their weight. On the contrary, a mediocre manager might struggle, even if he has the squad to succeed. It’s inevitable that the analysis of the manager plays a vital part in your evaluation of any soccer side out there.

Schedule

If you are looking to place a bet on some of the top European leagues, you should always consider the schedule. The teams in England, Spain, Germany, and France have busy schedules and regularly have to face strong competition. The leading five or six there also play in the UEFA competitions, which makes the situation even worse. As a result, the managers are often forced to rotate their players in order to cope with the schedule. Imagine if one of the teams involved in a game you’re exploring had a gruesome Champions League clash a couple days ago and has an important cup game a couple of days after the match. Naturally, the manager will have to rest some of his players and field a starting eleven that includes some fresh legs and/or rests some players for the next game. You should always be aware of such situations and try to predict the actions of the teams involved.

Consider Climate and Altitude

When it comes to continental or international matchups, the climate and altitude at which a game is played can have a big bearing on the end result. Certain players and teams are accustomed to playing at a high altitude, while others struggle to adapt. This is important to remember if you’re serious about creating an effective soccer betting strategy.

Cartoon Man with information I behind him

Top Tip

During a 2014 FIFA World Cup qualification match between Bolivia and Argentina in La Paz (the highest capital city on earth), a number of Argentine players required oxygens masks mid-game, while others vomited.

Led by the legendary Lionel Messi, Argentina was ranked #3 in the world at the time, while Bolivia was ranked #37. Remarkably, the game ended 1-1, despite Argentina being the bookies’ overwhelming favorite to win. Always consider factors such as altitude and humidity before parting ways with your money. A team may be heavily favored to win, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it is a formality.

Backing Underdogs to Win Tournaments

Gambling on entire soccer seasons can be predictable. Over the course of a 30 or 40-game campaign, the best teams nearly always come out on top. If you don’t mind waiting a year for a relatively probable bet to land, then backing favorites to win domestic leagues isn’t the worst strategy for soccer betting. But if you’re looking for better value and a speedy return, backing underdogs to win tournaments such as the World Cup, Euros, Copa America, and Gold Cup is the way to go. Let’s take the UEFA European Championship, for example.

UEFA European Championship Winners (1960-2020)

Team	Year(s)
Germany	1972, 1980, 1996
Spain	1964, 2008, 2012
Italy	1968, 2020
France	1984, 2000
Russia	1960
Czech Republic	1976
Portugal	2016
Netherlands	1988
Denmark	1992
Greece	2004

As the table above details, ten different teams have won Europe’s leading international tournament over the years, with six countries triumphing on just one occasion. Still, there have only been 16 editions of the competition to date. This emphasizes the competitiveness of the tournament, suggesting that smaller nations consistently upset the odds.

Denmark didn’t even qualify for Euro ‘92 but was brought into the tournament following Yugoslavia’s disqualification. Against all odds, the Danes ended up lifting the trophy. With no pressure on the team, they were able to go all the way.

In 2004, Greece was among the bookies’ outsiders. But the minnows managed to beat host nation Portugal in the final, thanks largely to spirited teamwork and squad cohesion. These are just two examples of underdogs that upset the odds, but it happens all the time in different tournaments around the world. If you’re prepared, you can take advantage of these kinds of situations. With that in mind, here are a few things to look out for if you want to make full use of this soccer betting strategy.

Consider team atmosphere and morale. If a favorite is experiencing unrest behind the scenes, back a less favored side. The underdogs are invariably in high spirits, as they have nothing to lose.
The coaching staff can have a big impact on the way a team plays. Just because a side is stacked with world-class players, that doesn’t necessarily mean they will succeed.
Make sure you analyze entire squads and not just star power – remember what Denmark and Greece achieved!? They didn’t have many big-name players, but they triumphed through teamwork and determination.
You can also consider the potential routes of teams in the tournament. If an outsider has an easy group and a favorable path through the knockout phase, back them to go far.

At the end of the day, anything can happen in knockout soccer. Favorites often get knocked out in the early rounds, while underdogs can upset the odds. If you can spot outsiders that have the potential to succeed, you could land yourself a tasty profit at the end of the tournament.

Putting Your Soccer Betting Strategy into Practice

We hope that you picked plenty of useful information while going through our top tips for soccer betting. It’s now time for you to put your newly learned soccer betting strategies into practice! There are countless soccer leagues and competitions to bet on across the world, so practicing various strategies won’t be difficult.

Evan

Hatfield

Content Editor

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Evan Hatfield is an experienced online poker player and Content Management Specialist for GamblingSites.com. His expertise spans esports, poker and casino platforms. As a huge fan of esports and basketball, you’ll usually find Evan researching the best odds for his favorite teams: the Los Angeles Lakers and Faze Clan. Evan lives in Nova Scotia.

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Best Strategies for Betting on Soccer