Polymarket Bettor Loses Nearly $1M After Spain’s Shocking Cape Verde Draw

Key Highlights

Spain’s shocking World Cup opening match draw against Cape Verde may affect their ability to advance to the knockout stage, but it had even bigger implications for one bettor. 

An unidentified Polymarket user reportedly lost nearly $1 million after backing the 2024 Euro winners in the moneyline market.

Spain Draw Turns Massive Bet Into A Near-$1M Loss

Spain entered the Group H match as an overwhelming -1200 favorite, but Cape Verde held the European champion to a 0-0 draw thanks in large part to the play of goalkeeper Vozinha. The 40-year-old made seven saves in a game in which Spain had a 27-6 edge in shot attempts.

The Polymarket user’s bet carried a striking risk-reward profile, one that goes against common responsible gambling practices. Betting more than $999,000 on a -1200 favorite meant that they would have made $85,943.48 if Spain won.

That kind of wager can look safe when it’s tied to a major favorite, but soccer is low-scoring enough for one tight defensive performance to flip the result. Cape Verde didn’t need to win to crush the position. A draw was enough.

Another Trader Lost Millions on Netherlands & Belgium

The Spain loss wasn’t the only massive World Cup hit on Polymarket. Another trader using an account named “FlickRaw” lost roughly $4.2 million in less than 24 hours across two match winner bets.

The first was a $2.7 million position on the Netherlands to beat Japan. That bet would have returned about $5.83 million, including the original stake, if the Dutch had won. Instead, Japan equalized in the 88th minute for a 2-2 draw, making the Netherlands win contract worthless. FlickRaw then placed another $1.5 million on Belgium to beat Egypt, which would have returned about $2.4 million, including the stake. The two teams played to a 1-1 draw.

Together, those bets show how quickly prediction market exposure can go south when bettors treat heavy favorites as near certainties, especially in 3-way moneyline betting. Even when the potential outcomes look likely, match winner contracts become worthless if the favorite draws instead of wins.

Responsible Gambling Concerns Raised

Gambling problems cannot be diagnosed from one wager, especially when the bettor’s identity, financial situation, and full activity history are unknown. But risking nearly $1 million to win about $86,000 shows signs of potential problem gambling behavior.

That concern is particularly notable because in May Spain blocked prediction markets like Polymarket, Kalshi, and others while regulators investigated whether they were operating without required gambling licenses. Spain’s ban doesn’t prove anything about this bettor’s location, but it does underline why regulators are paying closer attention to platforms where high-risk wagers can be framed as trades.

Prediction markets can make these types of wagers feel more like trading than gambling. The aforementioned results showed how quickly a “safe” position can turn into a massive loss when a heavy favorite doesn’t deliver.