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UKLatest NFL MVP Odds and Picks (2026)
Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are poised for another heated battle in the early 2026 MVP odds. Allen won the award in 2024 and is the opening betting favorite. Jackson, a two-time MVP winner, is close behind his rival in the current odds.
Last year’s MVP runner-up, Drake Maye, is also near the top of the odds boards and is looking to build on a breakout sophomore season. Continue reading to see the latest odds to win the NFL MVP award in 2026 and my top pick in this futures market.
Odds to Win the 2026 NFL MVP Award
See the table below for the latest NFL MVP odds, courtesy of Lucky Rebel.
| Player | 2026 NFL MVP Odds |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen (BUF) | +675 |
| Lamar Jackson (BAL) | +875 |
| Joe Burrow (CIN) | +925 |
| Drake Maye (NE) | +1100 |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | +1100 |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | +1400 |
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | +1500 |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | +1500 |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | +1600 |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | +2200 |
Josh Allen opened the offseason at +600 odds to win MVP, but his chances have faded to +675 at the best NFL betting sites. Despite losing some ground, Allen is still the overall favorite to win his second MVP award this year.
Lamar Jackson’s odds have also faded over the summer, going from +750 to +875. On the bright side, the Ravens’ QB still has the second-most odds to win MVP this season. Jackson’s current odds offer an implied win probability of 10.26%.
Joe Burrow (+925), Drake Maye (+1100), and Justin Herbert (+1100) round out the top five.
Lucky Rebel has competitive odds for every NFL award, including the MVP. Read our Lucky Rebel review to find out more about this sportsbook.
Why Is Josh Allen the Frontrunner?
Right or wrong, Josh Allen has assumed the mantle as the NFL media’s favorite QB. With that in mind, it comes as no surprise that Allen is once again the MVP frontrunner to start the season.
Allen is currently listed at +675 odds, implying a 12.9% win probability.
He finished third in MVP voting last year after leading the Bills to a 12-5 record in the regular season. Despite winning double-digit games for the seventh straight year, Allen and the Bills did not win the AFC East, coming up short behind the Patriots.
Winning the division is nonnegotiable if Allen wants to win his second MVP award. He also needs to continue to be the driving force in a Bills offense that has limited receiving talent. RB James Cook has been great for Buffalo, but the team needs newly acquired WR D.J. Moore to open up the passing game this season.
Buffalo promoted OC Joe Brady to head coach this offseason. Brady’s promotion could be great news for Allen if the Bills’ offense takes more risks and pads his stats.
Another reason to back Allen is the Bills’ schedule. Buffalo has the eighth hardest schedule this season, and beating good teams will only add to Allen’s MVP case. Allen and company also have six prime-time games this season, giving him plenty of chances to impress voters in big spots.
Will Lamar Jackson Win a 3rd NFL MVP?
Speaking of former MVPs hoping to add to their trophy case this season, Lamar Jackson is listed at +875 to win his third MVP. He opened the offseason at 8-1 and remains second on odds boards despite a slight fade.
Jackson, like Allen, has a new head coach in charge of the team this year. Baltimore hired Jesse Minter to replace John Harbaugh after a disappointing 8-9 season in 2025.
Minter is a defensive head coach, and he hired Declan Doyle to be his offensive coordinator. Doyle, who is two months younger than Jackson, previously worked with the Saints and Broncos. Learning a new offense could limit Jackson’s production early in the year.
Jackson was not healthy last season, missing four games with a hamstring injury. It was the third time in the last five seasons that Lamar has missed at least four games due to injury.
When he returned to the field, Jackson was clearly limited and did not run as much as usual. Jackson finished the year with 5.2 rush attempts per game, the lowest of his career by far.
Health is not the only obstacle for Jackson to overcome, either. Jackson’s postseason struggles have, fair or not, cast a shadow over his regular season accomplishments. The media could exclude Lamar from MVP voting until he proves he can win in the playoffs.
More 2026 NFL MVP Contenders
- Joe Burrow (+925)
- Drake Maye (+1100)
- Justin Herbert (+1100)
Burrow, Herbert, and last year’s MVP runner-up Maye are also top contenders for the award this season.
Joe Burrow (+925)
Burrow is entering his seventh NFL season, and expectations are high for the three-time Pro Bowler. However, like Jackson, Burrow’s injury history cannot be overlooked.
The former LSU Tiger has suffered significant injuries in three of his six prior seasons. In two of his three healthy seasons, Burrow finished top-five in MVP voting. If he can stay healthy, Burrow has plenty of weapons at his disposal.
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are one of the best WR duos in the league. RB Chase Brown is also one of the top receiving backs, giving Burrow plenty of options to throw to. If Burrow is healthy and can lead the Bengals to a division win despite having one of the league’s worst defenses, he will get MVP votes.
Drake Maye (+1100)
Drake Maye’s breakout sophomore season ended with a runner-up MVP finish and crushing loss in Super Bowl 60. Despite how it ended, Maye’s 2025 season has raised expectations for New England this season.
Maye has new weapons to help him repeat last year’s success. A.J. Brown is an upgrade over Stefon Diggs, who led the team in receiving last season. New England also acquired Romeo Doubs, a deep threat who has averaged 13+ yards per reception in back-to-back seasons.
On the other hand, New England will face a much harder schedule this season after winning the AFC East last year. A slow start could derail Maye’s MVP hopes and the Pats’ season altogether.
Justin Herbert (+1100)
Allen is not the only media darling being overvalued in the latest MVP odds. Justin Herbert is tied for the fourth-best odds at 11-1.
Herbert has failed to top 4,000 passing yards in three straight years. He was also sacked 54 times last year, the most in his career. Both of those issues could be corrected if the Chargers’ offensive line can stay healthy this year.
Jim Harbaugh is not a pass-heavy head coach, but adding Mike McDaniel as the OC could change that. If Herbert can return to his early career form and help lead the Chargers to their first division title since 2009, he has a chance at winning MVP.
Best 2026 NFL MVP Sleepers
- Dak Prescott (+1500)
- Caleb Williams (+1600)
Maye and Stafford proved last year that sleepers can be great MVP bets. My top MVP sleepers for this year are Dak Prescott and Caleb Williams.
Dak Prescott (+1500)
To win MVP in the modern NFL, players need to: be a quarterback, win their division, and play well in big games and prime time. Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott, who finished second in MVP voting in 2023, has a chance to check all of those boxes this season.
Prescott has plenty of weapons on offense, namely CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Dallas has the 13th weakest schedule and plays in six prime-time games. If Prescott and co. light up the scoreboard, he could bring the MVP back to Dallas for the first time since 1993.
Caleb Williams (+1600)
Another QB looking to break into MVP conversations this year is Caleb Williams. The combination of Williams and new HC Ben Johnson helped the Bears win the NFC North last year.
It is Williams’s second season in Johnson’s offense, and he should take a step forward. Chicago’s young receiving corps will also be better, boosting Williams’s chances at MVP. Repeating as NFC North champs will not be easy, though, as Chicago has the toughest strength of schedule in the NFL this season.
Tips for Betting on the NFL MVP Winner
Here are a few tips to help you pick which stars to bet on in this NFL futures bet:
Place Bets Early in the Season
Betting on a futures wager early in the season is the best way to secure the most value for your money.
Matthew Stafford, for example, closed the 2025 regular season at +225 odds before winning MVP. Josh Allen is the opening favorite ahead of the 2026 season at 6-1 odds.
Also, since the odds offer better payouts, you can bet smaller amounts and pick up multiple MVP futures tickets for the same price. The more tickets you have, the better your chance of winning your MVP future.
Bet on a Quarterback to Win MVP
Many players, particularly running backs and wide receivers, have broken records in their attempts to win the MVP award. Cooper Kupp and Ja’Marr Chase won the receiving Triple Crown in 2021 and 2024, respectively. Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley have all had 2,000+ yards from scrimmage in recent years.
However, despite their best efforts, the MVP has been a quarterback every year since 2013.
Simply put, the AP voters who decide the MVP favor quarterbacks. So, bettors should follow their lead and bet on a QB with the NFL MVP futures tickets.
Look for Players Who Exceed Expectations
“Value” can be subjective but helping your team exceed expectations despite having a poor cast of players around you is a good way to prove you are the Most Valuable Player in the NFL.
The lack of Pro Bowlers and All-Pros on Buffalo’s roster in 2024 is a major reason why Allen took home the MVP over Lamar. Identifying players who can elevate the talent around them is a good way to win your MVP futures bets.
Consider Recent Playoff Success
The regular season MVP is supposed to reflect the results of the regular season. However, MVP voters tend to hold playoff success, or lack thereof, against contenders.
This puts added pressure on players like Lamar Jackson, who is just 3-5 in the postseason. He already has two MVPs, but giving Jackson a third when he has fallen short in the biggest games of his career is a tough ask.
Recent NFL MVP Winners
| Year | MVP Winner | MVP Runner-Up |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Matthew Stafford | Drake Maye |
| 2024 | Josh Allen | Lamar Jackson |
| 2023 | Lamar Jackson | Dak Prescott |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes | Jalen Hurts |
| 2021 | Aaron Rodgers | Tom Brady |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers | Josh Allen |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson | N/A |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes | Drew Brees |
| 2017 | Tom Brady | Todd Gurley |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan | Tom Brady |
2026 NFL MVP Predictions
Beating tough teams is hard, but that is exactly what you need to do to create an airtight MVP case. That is why I think Caleb Williams (+1600) is the best bet to win MVP this year.
Williams broke out last season in his first year with Ben Johnson, living up to the hype as the top pick from the 2024 NFL draft. Another step forward could see Williams shatter Bears’ franchise records, including passing TDs and passing yards in a season.
Chicago also has plenty of chances to show out in front of the entire country. The Bears play five prime-time games this year and two holiday matchups.
A record-breaking year while overcoming the hardest schedule in the NFL will put Williams in position to win MVP in his third NFL season. Beating the Lions on Thanksgiving and the Packers on Christmas will help Williams wrap up the NFC North and the MVP in 2026.
Where to Bet on the 2026 NFL MVP
Lucky Rebel makes it easy to shop for NFL futures markets, including the latest 2026 MVP betting odds. It lists Josh Allen at +675, but I prefer the value of Caleb Williams at +1600.
Create your Lucky Rebel account today to bet on the current NFL MVP odds. You can also claim a $1,250 sports bonus with your first qualifying deposit to fund your NFL bankroll.
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