Latest NFL MVP Odds and Picks (2026)

Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are poised for another heated battle in the early 2026 MVP odds. Allen won the award in 2024 and is the opening betting favorite. Jackson, a two-time MVP winner, is close behind his rival in the current odds. 

Last year’s MVP runner-up, Drake Maye, is also near the top of the odds boards and is looking to build on a breakout sophomore season. Continue reading to see the latest odds to win the NFL MVP award in 2026 and my top pick in this futures market. 

Odds to Win the 2026 NFL MVP Award

Lucky Rebel provided the following early 2026 NFL MVP odds. 

Top NFL betting sites have Buffalo QB Josh Allen as the +600 favorite to win MVP this season. Allen won MVP in 2024 and finished third in voting last year after receiving just two first-place votes. 

At 6-1 odds, Allen has an implied win probability of 14.29% to claim MVP honors this season. 

Lamar Jackson has the next-best odds at +750. Jackson is a two-time MVP, but is coming off an injury-riddled, disappointing 8-9 season. Drake Maye rounds out the top three at +850 odds after finishing with 23 first-place MVP votes last year. 

Lucky Rebel offers great value on a variety of NFL awards markets, including MVP. Our Lucky Revel review breaks down everything you need to know about this top-notch sportsbook.

90%

Expert Score

78%

Player Score

Featured Offer

Welcome Bonus

125% up to $1,250 + 50 free spins

Claim Bonus

Why Is Josh Allen the MVP Frontrunner?

Allen won the MVP in somewhat controversial fashion in 2024, earning 27 of the 49 first-place votes. He followed up his MVP campaign with a 12-5 season and a playoff berth. 

Despite losing just one extra game last year, the Bills’ 2025 season was largely a disappointment. The team did not win their division and, even though Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson failed to make the playoffs, Buffalo still could not get over the hump in the AFC playoffs. 

Allen was held under 4,000 passing yards for the second consecutive season, but he was a major part of the Bills’ dominant running game. Allen ran for 579 yards and 14 rushing TDs, both of which were first among QBs. 

Building an MVP resume this season will be tough given the Bills’ schedule. They open their new stadium against Detroit in Week 2 on a short week. Allen and the Bills also have to play on Thanksgiving, Christmas, and face the Super Bowl 61 favorite Rams in LA. 

On the bright side, the Bills do not have any international games this year. Also, the team added 10 rookies through the draft and traded for DJ Moore to give Allen more help in the passing game. 

Can Lamar Jackson Win His 3rd MVP?

Lamar Jackson only started 13 games last season, earning a 6-7 record for a struggling Ravens’ team. Jackson and the company still have a shot at winning the division, but they lost in Week 18 against division rival Pittsburgh. 

His playing style lends itself to injury, so Jackson’s health is always going to be a question mark. He has started every game in a season just once in his career. 

Jackson had an MVP-caliber season in 2024 but lost out on the award to Allen. He received 22 first-place votes to Allen’s 27. Jackson had the stats of an MVP, but his playoff struggles and voter fatigue were held against him. 

The Ravens have the ninth-easiest schedule based on 2025 win percentage. With the exception of a Week 3 matchup against Dallas in Rio, the Ravens do not leave the East Coast until a Week 12 game in Houston. An easy travel schedule should help Jackson stay healthy and return to his MVP-level play. 

Top 2026 MVP Contenders

• Drake Maye (NE) (+850)
• Joe Burrow (CIN) (+950)
• Justin Herbert (LAC) (+1000)

Drake Maye was not on the MVP radar before his breakout sophomore season. Now, the third-year QB is in the top five of MVP markets along with Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert.  

Drake Maye (NE) (+850)

Maye and the Patriots benefited from a friendly schedule last year. In addition to facing the easiest strength of schedule this century, New England did not have to cross the Mississippi until the AFC title game in Denver. 

The pressure is on Maye to build on his success from the Pats’ Super Bowl run. However, after the team let Stefon Diggs walk in free agency, Maye’s MVP hopes could hinge on the team’s rumored trade for AJ Brown. Without a top-level WR1, Maye and the Pats’ offense will likely take a step back. 

Joe Burrow (CIN) (+950)

Joe Burrow missed nine games last season thanks to a turf toe injury. Cincinnati went 5-3 in Burrow’s starts, but the team went just 1-8 in his absence. 

If Burrow is healthy, the Bengals offense should be one of the most productive units in the league. He finished fourth in MVP voting in 2022 and 2024, two of the three seasons he has played at least 16 games. 

On the other hand, Burrow has played 10 or fewer games in half of his NFL career. He is one of the top QBs in the league, but Burrow’s injury history makes him a risky futures bet for MVP.

Justin Herbert (LAC) (+1000)

Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert rounds out the top five of the latest MVP odds at 10-1. Herbert struggled behind an injury-depleted offensive line last season but still managed to rack up 3,700+ passing yards and 26 passing TDs. 

Herbert made the Pro Bowl and earned one first-place MVP vote. 

A healthy o-line should make life easier for Herbert this season. Herbert will need all the help he can get to win MVP while facing the ninth-toughest schedule. LA faces the NFC West, including Super Bowl champion Seattle, and the AFC East. 

Best 2026 NFL MVP Sleepers

• Caleb Williams (CHI) (+1400)
• Jayden Daniels (WAS) (+2200)
• Bijan Robinson (ATL) (+15000)

Caleb Williams is my top 2026 MVP sleeper at 14-1 odds. Williams and the Bears’ offense took several steps forward last year in their first season under Ben Johnson. Another year in a familiar offense should help Williams become a more consistent player in his junior season and compete for MVP honors. 

Another QB from the 2024 Draft to watch in MVP markets is Jayden Daniels. He won Rookie of the Year honors in 2024 but missed 10 games last season due to injury. If Daniels is healthy, he should help the Commanders take advantage of a third-place schedule and play at an MVP level. 

QBs have won the MVP every year since 2013, and that is unlikely to change. However, if a non-QB did win MVP, then my pick would be Bijan Robinson. The RB is set up for a productive season in year one under Kevin Stefanski, especially considering the Falcons’ issues at QB. 

Tips for Betting on the NFL MVP Winner

Here are a few tips to help you pick which stars to bet on in this NFL futures bet:

Recent NFL MVP Winners

2026 NFL MVP Predictions 

Josh Allen is a 6-1 favorite to win his second MVP this season. A second-place schedule and key offseason acquisitions have put the Bills in position to bounce back after a disappointing 2025 season. 

Expectations are high for Allen and company, though, so proving he is worthy of MVP honors will be difficult. 

Caleb Williams is listed at 14-1 odds and is in a better position to succeed. Even with losing Moore to the Bills this offseason, Williams and the Bears have a better receiving corps than Allen and Buffalo. 

Williams will also benefit from a second year in Ben Johnson’s system. Allen is familiar with Joe Brady’s offense, but the latter could be distracted from his new HC duties. Chicago has one of the hardest schedules in the NFL, but winning against tough opponents will help build Williams’ MVP case.

Where to Bet on the 2026 NFL MVP

Lucky Rebel makes it easy to shop for NFL futures markets, including the latest 2026 MVP betting odds. It lists Josh Allen as the 6-1 favorite, but I prefer the value of Caleb Williams at +1400. 

Create your Lucky Rebel account today to bet on the current NFL MVP odds. You can also claim a $1,250 sports bonus with your first qualifying deposit to fund your NFL bankroll.