NFL Urges Supreme Court to Let States Regulate Prediction Markets

Key Highlights

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has been fighting multiple legal battles with states over prediction market regulatory authority. The NFL has now chosen a side in the increasingly complex debate. 

NFL Backs State Control of Sports Betting

The NFL is asking the Supreme Court to decide whether states can have authority over sports betting conducted through prediction markets. In an amicus brief backing New Jersey regulators in their case against Kalshi, the league argues that sports event contracts function as gambling rather than financial swaps under exclusive federal oversight. An NFL spokesperson clarified to CNBC that “in the end, we believe that given the current resource constraints of the CFTC, this is a job better left to the states.”

Kalshi has repeatedly defended its position in court against Minnesota, Nevada, and several other states, arguing that the contracts fall solely under federal regulation. The NFL takes the opposite position, saying gambling oversight is one of the states’ traditional sovereign police powers. Its brief asks what constitutional authority would let Congress displace those powers when regulating gambling that occurs within a state.

NFL betting on Kalshi generated $4.8 billion in prediction market trading on the season’s first Sunday, representing more than half of all volume. Contract trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket combined exceeded $14 billion during the first week of the 2026 NFL season. While those figures aren’t directly comparable to handle at football betting sites because prediction markets count both sides of each trade, they highlight the rapid growth of the industry and the overlap with sports betting.

Integrity Concerns Drive the League’s Position

At the center of the NFL’s objection are contracts it believes could be manipulated. A kicker could intentionally miss a field goal, or a wide receiver could deliberately fumble a pass if given sufficient monetary incentive. The league has also raised concerns about wagers involving injuries, officiating, and other details that insiders might know before the public.

Another issue is that Kalshi permits customers as young as 18. The NFL wants prediction market customers to be at least 21, matching the minimum age that most states require for sports betting. The league says neither the CFTC nor prediction market operators have accepted its repeated requests to prohibit bet categories vulnerable to manipulation or establish a 21-year-old threshold.

Those concerns shape the NFL’s firm position on prediction markets, which it says is intended to protect the integrity of football. The league prohibits advertising from prediction platforms and has not entered a partnership with one. Commissioner Roger Goodell said on September 10 that the NFL wants stronger safeguards before considering such a deal.

“We don’t feel like we have to be the first in this,” Goodell cautioned. “We feel like we’re going to be right, and the best thing to do is be patient.”

Sports Leagues Split as Courts Disagree

A few other major North American sports leagues have taken a different stance with prediction markets. The NHL has partnerships with Kalshi and Polymarket, while MLB, MLS, and UFC have agreements with Polymarket. By contrast, the NFL, NBA, and PGA have yet to sign prediction market partnerships. The difference highlights how sports organizations have chosen separate paths amid disputed regulatory authority.

Federal appeals courts have issued conflicting decisions on whether states may enforce gambling laws over contracts regulated by the CFTC. The NFL’s Supreme Court request followed a similar appeal by a group of 39 state attorneys general on Wednesday. A Supreme Court ruling could ultimately decide whether federal oversight displaces state authority.