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UKTop Week 16 NFL Prop Bets (2025)
Wagering on NFL props in Week 16 is a great way to add excitement to one of the final weeks of the regular season. Every team is in action, so there is no shortage of props to choose from.
Continue reading to see the best prop bets for Week 16. I break down my top props for the week and analyze why each market is worth the risk.
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Best TNF Prop Bet: Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 Interceptions (+107)
Lucky Rebel has hundreds of props for Thursday night’s showdown between the Rams and the Seahawks. First place in the NFC West and the top seed in the conference are on the line in this divisional game.
The first time these teams played, Matthew Stafford was in the middle of a record-setting streak of 28 TD passes without an interception. That streak ended in Week 13, and Stafford has now thrown three interceptions over the last three games.
Stafford is listed at +107 to throw an interception this week against Seattle. The Seahawks defense has forced 16 interceptions, the fourth-most in the NFL so far this season.
The Rams could be without Davante Adams, Stafford’s favorite target in goal-line situations. With Stafford throwing to less familiar targets, he is more likely to throw an interception. With that in mind, I think Stafford will throw at least one pick against Seattle on TNF.
Top NFL Player Props for Week 16
Top NFL betting sites are also loaded with exciting player props for this weekend’s most anticipated matchups.
Jalen Hurts Anytime TD Scorer (+105)
The Eagles take on the Commanders this Saturday in the first of their two matchups this season. Philadelphia shut out Las Vegas last week, easily covering their Week 15 props, and its offense has another chance to rack up points against Washington.
Jalen Hurts is listed at +105 in the current anytime TD scorer markets. Hurts has eight rushing scores to go with his 22 passing touchdowns this year.
Washington has allowed over 136 rushing YPG, the fifth-most in the NFL. The Commanders have also surrendered 14 rushing scores this year. If the Eagles get close to the goal line, the patented Tush Push will help Hurts find the endzone against Washington.
Josh Jacobs Over 79.5 Scrimmage Yards (-112)
Josh Jacobs and the Packers also play on Saturday, taking on the Bears to finish their regular-season series. Green Bay won the first matchup in Week 14, but they will be without key pieces for the rematch.
Micah Parsons tore his ACL last week, and Christian Watson was also banged up in the loss to Denver. Those injuries will put more pressure on Jacobs and the running game to help Green Bay try to secure the season sweep of Chicago.
Jacobs has had 90+ scrimmage yards in three straight games, including 92 total yards against the Bears two weeks ago. He is listed at -112 odds to have over 79.5 scrimmage yards against Chicago this week.
With their best receiver limited at best, Jacobs should shoulder more of the offensive load than usual this week. He will top 80 scrimmage yards for the ninth time this season.
Brandon Aubrey Over 8.5 Kicking Points Scored (-124)
The Cowboys face a must-win matchup this week against the visiting Chargers. Even if Dallas wins out, the Cowboys’ slow start to the season has them in danger of missing the playoffs.
Los Angeles is 10-4 this season, including a 4-2 record on the road. For Dallas to win, they need their star players to step up, including kicker Brandon Aubrey. Aubrey is listed at -124 odds to have over 8.5 kicking points this Sunday.
After an uncharacteristically inaccurate performance last week, the pressure is on Aubrey to bounce back against LA.
Field goals and PATs count toward Aubrey’s total in this prop wager. The Chargers have a great pass defense, but Dallas has the league’s best passing offense. If the Cowboys can get Aubrey in range, which is not hard to do, he should easily top 8.5 points this week.
Tetairoa McMillan Anytime TD Scorer (+160)
Tampa Bay’s second-half collapse has been driven by injuries on both sides of the ball. The Buccaneers have lost six of their last eight games, and their defense has allowed 24+ points in each loss.
Carolina’s passing attack has been hit or miss, but Bryce Young has a chance to show out against the Bucs this week. Tampa allows 246.9 passing YPG, the third-most in the league. That is great news for Tetairoa McMillian.
The rookie wide receiver leads Carolina in targets (102), catches (59), and receiving yards (851) this season. McMillan also has six receiving TDs, the most on the team. He is listed at +160 to score this weekend against the Bucs.
Tampa has allowed 24 passing TDs this year. McMillan is Carolina’s best receiver and the best bet to score against the Buccaneers’ poorly-rated pass defense.
Best Week 16 NFL Game Prop Bets
You can bet on exciting game props for Week 16, too.
Bills Do Not Win Both Halves (-136)
Buffalo kept its hopes of winning the AFC East alive last week with a massive comeback win over New England. Unfortunately, that major win puts the Bills in a classic trap game situation against the lowly Browns this weekend.
The Bills have one of the league’s worst rushing defenses. Buffalo allows 143.1 rushing YPG, third-most in the NFL. It has been their Achilles’ heel before, and their inability to stop the run could cost the Bills again this week.
Kevin Stefanski’s offense leans heavily on the run. An emotionally drained Bills team will struggle more than usual to stop the run, keeping Buffalo from winning both halves against Cleveland on Sunday.
Dolphins Over 10.5 Points in the 1st Half (+113)
Miami made the tough decision to bench Tua Tagovailoa after last week’s loss in Pittsburgh. The Dolphins will start rookie Quinn Ewers against the Bengals on Sunday.
Cincinnati has one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing league highs in total YPG (403.8) and points per game (31.2) this season.
Miami is at its best when it can lean on its running game. Cincinnati has the league’s worst rush defense, allowing 157.9 YPG. A healthy dose of De’Von Achane should help the Dolphins remain competitive in Ewers’ first career start and clear double digits in the first half.
Tennessee Titans Over 16.5 Points Scored (-128)
Tennessee gets the first crack at Kansas City after the three-time defending AFC Champions were eliminated from playoff contention. This will also be the Chiefs’ first game without Patrick Mahomes, who tore his ACL and LCL last week.
The Titans’ offense has been bad this year, but Cam Ward and company have quietly improved in recent weeks. Tennessee is averaging 16.1 PPG for the season, tied for the second-worst in the NFL. However, the Titans have scored 24+ points in three of their last four matchups.
Tennessee is listed at -128 to score over 16.5 points this weekend. The Titans are at home facing a demoralized KC team. Ward has played better in the second half of the season and will lead the Titans to at least 17 points this week.
Denver Broncos -4.0 (+107)
Denver, the only undefeated team at home, is laying 3.0 points against the visiting Jaguars this Sunday. Both teams lead their respective AFC divisions, but the Broncos are also fighting to maintain control of the number one seed.
Jacksonville had a great showing last week, with Trevor Lawrence scoring six total TDs against the Jets. A natural regression after that type of performance is to be expected. The step up in competition between the Jets’ and Broncos’ defense should also cause Lawrence to fall back to Earth.
Denver is favored by 3.0 points, but I think the Broncos can easily cover 4.0 this week. Bumping up the spread also rewards you with plus money odds at +107.
Week 16 NFL Prop Betting Trends and Tips
Keep these tips in mind before placing your Week 16 NFL bets.
QB and Coaching Changes Can Provide a Spark
Several teams have already been eliminated from playoff contention. With their regular season academic at this point, teams often make coaching or quarterback changes to get a head start on building their roster for next season. These changes can provide a short-term spark that allows the team to exceed expectations that week.
Tanking vs. Building for Next Year
As the saying goes, players do not tank. However, it is undeniable that some teams have more motivation to build momentum for next season than others. Bad teams with young stars typically play better down the stretch than teams where key starters are not expected to return the following year.
Where to Bet on NFL Week 16 Props
Lucky Rebel is the best place to wager on your Week 16 NFL prop bets. In addition to offering competitive lines for every game, this site features hundreds of prop markets. It even offers my favorite line of the week: Josh Jacobs over 79.5 scrimmage yards (-112) against Chicago.
New members can also claim a great welcome bonus after creating their account at Lucky Rebel. Use the 125% welcome offer to get up to $1,250 in bonus funds for your Week 16 NFL prop wagers.
