2026 World Cup Semi-Finals Odds and Picks

France and England are the leading favorites to advance in the 2026 World Cup semi-final odds. Spain and Argentina may be underdogs, but they still offer great betting opportunities for this week’s games. 

Continue reading to see my top picks for the semi-final odds. I highlight my top four bets for the World Cup semi-finals and give my predictions for France-Spain and England-Argentina. 

Best Semi-Finals World Cup Bets

Bovada provided the following wagers for the World Cup semi-finals. 

The highly anticipated matchup between France and Spain finally takes place this week. Top-rated soccer betting sites have Les Bleus favored over La Roja. Spain is an underdog, but a first-half goal from Mike Oyarzabal (+425) should help keep the game interesting. 

Kylian Mbappé has cemented himself as one of the best World Cup performers of all time, adding another eight goals this tournament. He is listed at +850 to score another goal and an assist against Spain. 

England vs. Argentina is also full of exciting betting options. I like Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham to each score their seventh goals (+951) and Lionel Messi to score in a game with over 4.5 goals (+911). 

Bovada has hundreds of bets for both semi-final matchups, and you can create your own wagers using the parlay building tool. Check out our Bovada review to learn more about this soccer sportsbook. 

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Mikel Oyarzabal to Score in the 1st Half (+425)

Lamine Yamal was supposed to be the star of this World Cup for Spain. However, with Yamal hindered by a hamstring injury, La Roja needed someone else to step up and take charge of its offense. 

Enter Mikel Oyarzabal, who has racked up four goals and one assist in his six starts this World Cup. Oyarzabal has scored nearly half of Spain’s 10 goals in the tournament. He also has 10 shots on target, tied for the most on the team. 

Oyarzabal is listed at +190 odds to score against France in this semi-final match, the second-best odds overall. You can boost your odds to +425 if you bet on Oyarzabal scoring in the first half. 

France has been the best offense in this World Cup, earning a +14 point differential. Spain must score early if it wants to keep pace with Les Bleus this week.

Oyarzabal has been Spain’s top scorer this tournament and is one of two players with multiple goals. Mikel Merino (2) is the other. Oyarzabal is Spain’s best chance of getting on the board early. 

Will Oyarzabal End France’s Shutout Streak?

France allowed two goals in the group stage, but Mike Maignan has been perfect since. Maignan’s play is a big reason France is the betting favorite in the latest 2026 World Cup winner odds.

Spain’s offense has not racked up as many goals as France’s, but it does allow La Roja to control possession. 

Dominating possession helped Spain slow down Belgium’s red-hot offense, and a similar strategy could help against France. It will also allow La Roja to put more pressure on Maignan than he has faced so far this World Cup and increase Oyarzabal’s odds of scoring.   

Kylian Mbappé to Score and Assist (+850)

Oyarzabal has been La Roja’s best weapon, but Kylian Mbappé has been a top scorer in the whole tournament. Mbappé has scored eight goals so far, tying him with Lionel Messi for the lead in the World Cup Golden Boot race. 

Even more impressive has been Mbappé’s ability to help his teammates score in France’s high-powered offense. Michael Olise leads the tournament with five assists, but Mbappé is second on the team with three. He is tied with England’s Bukayo Saka and Anthony Gordon for the second-most of any player remaining in the World Cup. 

Mbappé is listed at +110 in the anytime goalscorer market for this match. He is also available at +475 to record an assist against Spain. Or you can combine those outcomes and bet on Mbappé scoring and assisting at +850 odds. 

So far this World Cup, Mbappé has scored in five of his six appearances. He did not score against Norway, but Mbappé only played half the game and still managed to assist on two goals in France’s 4-1 win. 

Can Mbappé Score on Spain?

France has not allowed a goal since the group stage, but Spain did not allow a goal until the quarter-finals. Unai Simón finally gave up a goal in La Roja’s 2-1 win over Belgium. 

Mbappé has scored in every match this tournament in which he played both halves and has 20 goals in 20 career World Cup games. France excels at counterattacking, and Mbappé will take advantage of these situations to score at least once against Simón. 

Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham Both Score (+951)

Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham have emerged as one of the best duos in this World Cup. Kane had high expectations heading into the tournament and has lived up to the hype. He has scored in four of six games so far, including braces against Croatia and DR Congo. 

Bellingham’s success was more surprising. The now 23-year-old midfielder also has six goals, tying Kane for the fourth-most this World Cup. Like Kane, Bellingham has scored in four of six games in the World Cup and has two braces so far. 

He only scored twice in the group stage, but Bellingham has scored four of England’s seven goals in the knockout stage. 

Kane is listed at +170 odds to score against Argentina, and Bellingham is available at +330. Using Bovada’s parlay builder, you can bet on Kane and Bellingham to both score at +951 odds. 

Bellingham and Kane have scored in the same game three times so far this tournament. They will both need to be active if England wants to end Argentina’s quest to win back-to-back World Cups.

Argentina’s Defensive Struggles

Argentina’s offensive machine runs on Messi Magic. Its defense, however, has left a lot to be desired this tournament. 

La Albiceleste started the group stage with clean sheets against Algeria and Austria. However, it has allowed six goals in the four games since. Cape Verde and Egypt both scored multiple goals in their knockout-stage matches against Argentina. 

Lionel Messi 1+ Goals Scored and Over 4.5 Total Goals (+911)

Argentina has scored three goals in five of its six games so far, including its 3-1 win over Switzerland in the quarter-finals. The win against the Swiss was also the first time in the knockout stage that Argentina held its opponent to just one goal. 

Two of Argentina’s three knockout games have also gone to extra time, and the team needed every bit of Messi’s magic against Cape Verde and Egypt. 

The win over Switzerland was the first game in this tournament where Messi did not score. He is listed at +160 odds to score his ninth goal of the 2026 World Cup in Wednesday’s match with England. 

As mentioned above, I think Bellingham and Kane will both score. However, I believe Argentina will win the match. For that to happen, Argentina would need at least three goals, putting the total for the match over 4.5 goals. 

A bet on Messi scoring 1+ goals and the match having over 4.5 total goals offers +911 odds. 

Messi has struggled on penalty kicks, but he is still tied for the most goals this tournament with eight. He is also the all-time leader with 21 World Cup goals. He is a safe bet to score in any game, and all of Argentina’s knockout matches have racked up at least four total goals. 

England’s Recent Defensive Issues

England had a clean sheet in two of its three group stage matches. In the knockout stage, though, the Three Lions have allowed four total goals and at least one in every match. 

Kane and Bellingham’s offensive prowess has made up for England’s defensive struggles. Argentina has used a similar strategy. Two high-scoring teams with struggling defenses should lead to a high-scoring game between England and Argentina. 

Where to Bet on the 2026 World Cup Semi-Finals

Bovada’s 2026 World Cup semi-final markets are the best way to bet on the final four teams. It offers hundreds of markets for each game, including player props, goal totals, and parlays. 

Create your new Bovada account today to bet on your 2026 World Cup semi-final predictions. New members can get a 75% match worth up to $750 on their first qualifying crypto deposit.