Who Will Win the 2026 World Cup: Betting Odds Preview

After a pair of upsets in the semi-finals, Spain has resumed its place as the betting favorite in the latest 2026 World Cup betting odds. La Roja upset France 2-0, and Argentina pulled off another comeback win to take down England. 

The final and the third–place game take place this weekend. Continue reading to see the latest odds to win the 2026 World Cup. I break down my winner pick and explain the odds for the third-place game between France and England. 

Updated 2026 World Cup Winner Odds

Lucky Rebel supplied the following odds to win the 2026 World Cup. 

Spain opened the World Cup as the betting favorite at top soccer betting sites, but quickly fell behind France on odds boards during group play. La Roja proved the early lines right by defeating France 2-0 in the semi-finals. 

Now, Spain is listed at -160 odds to win the World Cup. It would be La Roja’s second World Cup, and its first since 2010. 

Argentina also pulled off an upset to secure its place in the final. Lionel Messi and company beat England 2-1 to earn a spot in La Albiceleste’s second straight World Cup final. Argentina is a +130 underdog against Spain on Sunday. 

Lucky Rebel has provided profitable World Cup odds throughout this year’s tournament. Check out our experts’ Lucky Rebel review to learn more about this sportsbook. 

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Why Is Spain Favored to Win the 2026 World Cup?

Spain’s defense has smothered opposing teams throughout the World Cup. La Roja started the tournament with five clean sheets. Unai Simón surrendered his first goal of the tournament in Spain’s 2-1 win over Belgium in the quarter-finals. 

Simón was back in top form against France, shutting down the Les Bleus’ high-scoring offense. His three saves helped Spain pull off the upset against the tournament favorites. 

In addition to only allowing one goal, Spain’s defense also leads the tournament with 343 forced turnovers. La Roja is also third in defensive pressures applied (1,641) so far. 

Spain’s already great defense has been boosted by its ability to control the ball. It is second in passes (4,592), and Spain’s 91% pass accuracy is tied with Argentina for the best in the World Cup. La Roja’s dominance over possession derailed France and Belgium, two of the top offenses in the knockout round. 

As great as its defense has been, La Roja’s offense has struggled at times. Spain only has 13 goals in seven World Cup games. For comparison, Argentina leads the tournament with 19 goals so far. 

Defense will be the key to Spain’s World Cup hopes on Sunday. It cannot keep up with Argentina in a high-scoring game. Late defense will be especially important as 12 of Argentina’s 19 goals have come after the 75th minute. 

Can Argentina Upset Spain?

Argentina’s unlikely run to the final has been fueled by an even less believable tournament from Lionel Messi. The 39-year-old has eight goals in the tournament, tying him for the lead in the Golden Boot race. 

Messi has been the engine in Argentina’s offense in more ways than one. In addition to leading the team in goals, he also leads La Albiceleste with four assists. No other player on the team has had more than one assist so far. 

Argentina has been far from dominant in the knockout stage. It needed extra time to beat Cape Verde and Switzerland. Messi and company also had to author comebacks to take down Egypt and England. 

Despite their struggles early in matches, Messi and company have been unstoppable late in matches. They have scored 12 goals after the 75’ mark in this year’s World Cup. Continuing to score late will be easier said than done against Spain’s defense. 

Messi has also slowed down lately. He has three assists in Argentina’s last two matches but has not scored since the team’s Round of 16 win over Egypt. If La Albiceleste is going to pull off another upset, Messi will need to be involved early and often. 

2026 World Cup 3rd Place Game Odds

Lucky Rebel is also offering the following odds on the 3rd Place Game for the 2026 World Cup. 

France’s offense fell flat against Spain, losing once again to La Roja late in a major tournament. The 2-0 loss was the first time in this World Cup where France failed to score. 

Despite their issues against Spain, France is a -110 favorite to beat England in the 3rd-place game. Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, and the rest of the Three Lions are listed as +275 underdogs. 

France (-110)

Les Bleus looked unstoppable going into their semi-final match with Spain. France had a tournament-high +14 point differential and had won every match in regulation. 

Unfortunately for Kylian Mbappé and France, a familiar nemesis, La Roja, derailed their championship hopes once again. Mbappé was held scoreless in the 2-0 loss. It was just the second time in the World Cup that he failed to put the ball in the net. 

Mbappé was not the only player to struggle in the loss. Mike Maignan had his worst performance at the 2026 World Cup, giving up multiple goals for the first time in the tournament. 

England’s offense, led by Kane and Bellingham, will put plenty of pressure on Maignan. France’s offense should also have an easier time scoring on the Three Lions, who have allowed seven goals in the knockout rounds so far. 

England (+275)

England’s quest for its first World Cup finals appearance since winning the tournament in 1966 fell one game short. Anthony Gordon gave England a 1-0 lead in the second half, but late goals from Enzo Fernández (85’) and Lautaro Martínez (90’+2) won the match for Argentina. 

Kane and Bellingham only managed one shot between them, and England as a team produced just five. 

If England wants to beat France, Kane and Bellingham must be more active. Jordan Pickford must also be at his best to keep France from running up the score. Following Spain’s blueprint of dominating possession could be England’s best chance of pulling off the upset. 

Updated 2026 World Cup Predictions

Spain is once again the World Cup favorite, but Argentina has been unbeatable late in matches. Messi and La Albiceleste are one win away from being the first back-to-back World Cup winners since Brazil (1958, 1962). 

His scoring has slowed, but Messi has distracted opposing defenses and has started to rack up assists. Even if he is not scoring, Messi will play a key role in helping Argentina break down Spain’s nearly impenetrable defense. 

Argentina’s late-match offense has been otherworldly. If the match is close in the final 20 minutes of regulation, Messi and La Albiceleste will find a way to win. 

The third-place matchup is also exciting as France and England look to finish the tournament on a high note. It could also have implications for the Golden Boot race as Mbappé (8), Kane (6), and Bellingham (6) are all in play to be the tournament’s highest scorer. My money is on France to right the ship and beat England this Saturday. 

Where to Bet on the 2026 World Cup Winner

Lucky Rebel has the best odds for the 2026 World Cup. In addition to offering exciting odds on the winner, it also offers dozens of props and futures for the tournament. 

Sign up for a Lucky Rebel account today to bet on the 2026 World Cup. New members who make a qualifying first deposit can get up to $1,250 in extra funds for betting on the World Cup.