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UKWorld Cup Betting Picks for July 6: Portugal vs Spain & USA vs Belgium
The Round of 16 delivers its biggest double-header yet. Two knockout matches with genuine weight land on Sunday, and both carry storylines that go beyond the pitch. Portugal vs Spain is a penalty-box Iberian derby where a 41-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo meets the reigning European champions, and USA vs Belgium puts the co-hosts in front of a Seattle crowd against a Belgian side running out of runway for its golden generation. You can find the full World Cup betting coverage here.
Both matches sit in the same quarter-final bracket, so the winners will face off at SoFi Stadium on July 10. That makes today’s slate a de facto quarterfinal eliminator. Below you will find odds from top offshore sportsbooks, match breakdowns, and a single pick per game.
Odds Comparison
| Match | ML Favorite | ML Underdog | O/U | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal vs Spain (3:00 PM ET) | Spain -110 (BetOnline) | Portugal +300 (Bovada) | 2.5 | -122 (Bovada) | +111 (BetOnline) |
| USA vs Belgium (8:00 PM ET) | USA +145 (Everygame) | Belgium +165 (BetUS) | 2.5 | -140 (BetUS) | +132 (BetOnline) |
Spain opened as clear favorites against Portugal, with the best price at -110 through BetOnline and Bovada. The USA sits as a slight home favorite against Belgium, where you will find the sharpest line at +145 through Everygame. Both overs are juiced, reflecting expectations for open knockout-round play.
Portugal vs Spain
3:00 PM ET | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Spain enter this one as Euro 2024 champions with a squad built around Lamine Yamal, Pedri, and Rodri. They topped Group H convincingly and handled Austria without trouble in the Round of 32. Luis de la Fuente’s side controls possession, presses high, and creates volume through the wings. Portugal present a different profile. Roberto Martinez’s team scraped through Group K with a draw against DR Congo and a loss to Colombia before needing a 94th-minute Goncalo Ramos goal to beat Croatia 2-1 in the Round of 32. That late VAR drama summed up their tournament so far: talent on paper, grinding results in practice.
The moneyline gap tells the story. Spain sit at -110 (Bovada, BetOnline) while Portugal are out at +300 (Bovada). Spain’s depth across midfield and the front line is a clear edge. Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva can hurt you, but Ronaldo’s mobility at 41 limits Portugal’s press and transition speed. The spread market offers Spain -0.5 at -110 (BetOnline), which is essentially the same as backing them on the moneyline at a slightly better number. The total at 2.5 sits with the over juiced to -122 (Bovada), and both teams to score is priced at -149 (Everygame), reflecting the expectation that Portugal’s attack will find at least one.
Pick: Spain Moneyline -110 (BetOnline): Spain have been the most balanced side in this tournament. Their midfield control through Pedri and Rodri limits Portugal’s ability to build from the back, and Yamal’s pace on the right wing targets the space behind Nuno Mendes. Portugal’s reliance on late heroics is not a repeatable formula against a team that concedes this few chances. BetOnline’s -110 matches the best available price across the board.
USA vs Belgium
8:00 PM ET | Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
The USA earned this moment by winning Group D as co-hosts and beating Bosnia & Herzegovina in the Round of 32. Mauricio Pochettino has built a side around pressing intensity, with Christian Pulisic pulling the strings, Folarin Balogun leading the line, and Weston McKennie and Tyler Adams anchoring the midfield. Playing in Seattle adds a genuine home-field factor. The atmosphere at Lumen Field will be loud, and this squad has fed off crowd energy throughout the group stage.
Belgium topped Group G but showed cracks. A 0-0 draw with Iran, where they played with 10 men after a red card to Ngoy, exposed a lack of creativity when the game goes sideways. Rudi Garcia’s squad still features Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku, and Thibaut Courtois, but the golden generation is aging out. This could be the last major tournament for several of their core players. The odds reflect uncertainty: Belgium’s moneyline ranges from +165 (BetUS) to +240 (Bovada), a 75-point gap that signals disagreement among oddsmakers. The USA are favored at every book, with the sharpest price at +145 (Everygame). The pick-em spread has the USA at -115 (BetUS), making them roughly a coin-flip favorite with a slight lean.
Pick: USA to Qualify -123 (BetOnline): Backing the USA to qualify rather than the moneyline removes the draw risk at a reasonable price. This American side is deeper and younger than Belgium, and the home crowd in Seattle tilts the margins in a tight game. Belgium’s defensive structure has shown vulnerability under pressure, and Pochettino’s pressing system is designed to exploit exactly that. BetOnline’s -123 is the best available number for this market.
Where to Bet on Today’s World Cup Matches
BetOnline stands out as the strongest book for today’s Round of 16 slate. They are offering the best Spain moneyline at -110 and the sharpest USA to Qualify price at -123, giving you top value on both picks without needing to split action across multiple accounts. Their World Cup market selection covers everything from spreads and totals to anytime goalscorer props, and the mobile interface handles live in-game wagering smoothly for those who want to get down after kickoff.
