2026 World Cup Final Odds and Picks

Only two teams remain in the World Cup final odds, and Spain is a slight favorite over Argentina in Sunday’s championship game. Sportsbooks are pulling out all the stops for the match, and bettors have hundreds of bets to choose from. 

I highlight my top four bets for the 2026 World Cup final below. Also, I will tell you which sportsbook to bet at for the best odds on Spain vs. Argentina. 

Best 2026 World Cup Final Bets

Bovada provided the following prop bet odds for the 2026 World Cup final. 

Argentina’s late-match heroics have made La Albiceleste an unstoppable force this tournament. Spain, on the other hand, has had a near-perfect defensive performance, allowing only one goal in seven games. 

I believe the exciting performances will continue, starting with either team’s keeper stopping a penalty (+1200). 

Spain’s Mikel Oyarzabal is also having a great tournament, leading La Roja with five goals. He is listed at 5-1 odds at top soccer betting sites to be the first goal scorer this Sunday. 

Finally, I think Lautaro Martinez will score on an assist from Lionel Messi (+600), and Argentina will continue its trend of winning from behind (+1400). Martinez has been Argentina’s second-best scorer, and Messi now leads the team with four assists. Their late-match chemistry will help La Albiceleste become just the third team to repeat as World Cup winners. 

Bovada has hundreds of props for the 2026 World Cup final. Read our complete review of Bovada to find out more about this highly-rated sportsbook. 

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Any Keeper to Save a Penalty (+1200)

Unai Simón has delivered one of the best World Cup performances of all time. His six clean sheets this year are the most for a single tournament. 

Emiliano Martínez has had a much tougher tournament, allowing seven goals in his seven starts. Six of the goals Martínez has conceded have been in the knockout stage. Despite his struggles, though, Martínez has tightened up late in games, allowing Argentina to complete its exciting comeback wins. 

Bovada has the odds of any keeper saving a penalty at +1200. 

Stopping a penalty is tough, and there is no telling how many chances either keeper will have to stop one. On the bright side, this wager is not tied to a single team, let alone a specific keeper. The 12-1 odds also mean you can wager a small amount and still cash in for a big payday. 

The pressure of kicking a penalty in the World Cup final can work against the kicker. Also, even the likes of Messi are not guaranteed to make their kicks in this high-pressure environment. Messi has already missed two penalty kicks this tournament and has the record for most missed penalties in the tournament’s history.

For this bet to cash, the keeper has to officially save the penalty. So, a kick that goes wide or over the net would not count as a win. However, with experienced keepers like Martínez and Simón in the match, this wager is worth the risk.

Mikel Oyarzabal 1st Goal Scorer (+500)

Spain’s excellent defense has carried it to the final. La Roja needed every bit of its stellar defense to make up for its struggling offense. Spain’s defense is a major reason it has the best odds of winning the World Cup.  

The 13 goals scored by Spain are the fewest by any team that made the semi-finals. It is one behind Belgium, which Spain eliminated in the quarter-finals. The offense as a whole has not been great, but Mikel Oyarzabal has been an exception. 

Oyarzabal leads La Roja with five goals this tournament. Only two other players, Mikel Merino (2) and Pedro Porro (2), have multiple goals for Spain this World Cup. 

There is no denying that Oyarzabal has been Spain’s best offensive weapon. He is listed at +500 odds to be the first goal scorer in this match. 

Argentina has been plagued by slow starts in the knockout stage. That gives Spain a huge advantage in getting on the board first. Oyarzabal has been La Roja’s most reliable scorer, securing three goals in the knockout stage, including scoring first against France and Austria. 

Simón Will Help Spain Score First 

Thanks in large part to Simón, Spain has scored first in six of its seven matches. The lone exception was La Roja’s 0-0 draw with Cape Verde in the group stage. 

Assuming Simón continues to be nearly unbeatable in the net, Argentina is not likely to score a goal early in the match. Most of Argentina’s scoring has happened late in matches, too, increasing the odds that La Roja will get on the board first.  

Lautaro Martinez Scores on an Assist from Lionel Messi (+600)

Messi started the 2026 World Cup with six goals in the group stage. Since the knockout rounds started, though, Messi has been held to just two goals and was scoreless against Switzerland and England. 

Messi does not need to put the ball in the net himself to contribute to Argentina’s offense, though. He only has one goal in his last three games, but Messi has racked up four assists over that span. 

In total, Messi has scored or assisted on 12 of Argentina’s 19 goals this World Cup. 

Both goals Argentina scored against England came courtesy of Messi’s assists. Messi is listed at +355 odds to assist on a goal against Spain. You can boost your payout odds to +600 if you bet on Messi to assist specifically on a goal scored by Lautaro Martinez. 

Martínez is tied for the best odds to score off a Messi assist. Julián Álvarez is also listed at 6-1 odds in this assists prop for the 2026 World Cup final. 

Martínez is the Best Bet to Score for Argentina

Messi has the shortest odds of any player to score in the final at +155 odds. Martínez and Álvarez are tied for the next-best odds of any La Albiceleste player at +330. 

They have the same odds in multiple scoring props, but Martínez is the better bet to put the ball into the back of the net. He has been Argentina’s second-best scorer, securing three goals so far this tournament. 

Álvarez, for comparison, has only scored once this World Cup. 

Martínez has already scored once off a Messi assist. He scored a header off Messi’s cross at 90’+2’ against England, the deciding goal of the match. Two of Martínez’s three goals have been in the knockout stage, making him the most reliable scorer for Argentina when the opposition shuts down Messi.   

Argentina Wins From Behind (+1400)

Spain is the better team on paper, but Argentina has proven that no lead is too big for La Albiceleste to overcome. Their slow starts, though, have forced Messi and company to rely on late-match comebacks to advance further in the World Cup. 

Argentina is the underdog, and if it does win, it will likely be a comeback victory. Bovada has Argentina listed at +1400 to come from behind and win. 

Spain has not trailed at any point this World Cup. Argentina, conversely, has trailed late in two of its four knockout stage games. Even in the games it did not trail late in, La Albiceleste still needed late-match heroics to win and advance. 

The good news is that Messi and co. are well-versed in these situations by now. Also, even though it has struggled early in matches, Argentina has managed 2+ goals in every match of the tournament.

Argentina’s Weather Advantage

The late-spring and early-summer weather in North America has played a big role in this World Cup. Many fans have complained about the hydration breaks, but the players will need them this weekend. 

Spain and Argentina will square off at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. Sunday’s forecasts call for a high in the mid-80s degrees and over 40% humidity, making it feel closer to 90 degrees. 

On the bright side, shifting winds should help push the smoke of Canada’s wildfires out of New Jersey by game day. 

Argentina is more than used to playing in adverse conditions in this year’s World Cup. Six of Argentina’s seven games so far have been outside in southern stadiums. Spain, on the other hand, has played the majority of its games in climate-controlled, domed stadiums.  

Being better conditioned to the extreme weather will help Argentina pull off its crowning achievement, a late comeback in the World Cup final. 

Where to Bet on the 2026 World Cup Finals

Bovada has been the best sportsbook for betting on props throughout the 2026 World Cup. It has hundreds of props for the final match between Spain and Argentina on Sunday. 

Create your Bovada account today to shop the latest 2026 World Cup prop markets. New members who deposit with crypto can also receive up to $750 in extra funds with the code BTCSWB750.