2026 World Cup Round of 16 Odds and Picks

Wagering on Round of 16 markets is the best way to enjoy the World Cup over the 4th of July weekend. With only eight games to choose from, it is important to shop for the best value for your bankroll. 

I highlight my favorite bets for the most anticipated Round of 16 matchups in the guide below. Also, I give my picks for each wager and explain my reasoning for each prediction. 

Best Round of 16 World Cup Bets

Here are my top bets for the Round of 16, courtesy of Bovada. 

France is the favorite to win the World Cup at top soccer betting sites and is heavily favored against Paraguay. Luckily, you can still create profitable odds by combining spread and player prop markets. 

For instance, betting on France to win by 2+ goals and Kylian Mbappé scoring or assisting on 2+ goals offers 2-1 odds. Les Bleus are the highest scoring team so far in the World Cup, and Mbappé has six goals and two assists in four games. 

My other top bets for the Round of 16 include Norway upsetting Brazil (+310), Mexico beating England with a clean sheet (+385), and Belgium eliminating the USA in a game with over 1.5 goals (+230). 

Bovada is a great sportsbook for betting on every remaining World Cup game. Read our Bovada review to learn more about this sportsbook. 

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France Wins by 2+ Goals and Kylian Mbappé Scores or Assists on 2+ goals (+200)

France is listed at -500 to beat Paraguay (+1400) in the Round of 16. Paraguay had a memorable win over Germany in the Round of 32, but their run is coming to an end soon. 

It is hard to profit from a -500 wager, but you can boost your odds to even money by taking France to cover the 2.0-goal spread. You can get +200 odds by combining France -2.0 and Mbappé 2+ scores and assists.  

France’s High-Scoring Offense

Les Bleus have 13 goals so far in the World Cup, the most of any team in the tournament. Paraguay, for comparison, has three goals in its four games so far and has not scored more than one goal in any match. 

Keeping up with France’s offense will be easier said than done for Paraguay. La Albirroja shut down Germany’s offense, forcing the game to penalties. France cannot afford to make the same mistake and needs to score early and often. 

Paraguay’s Orlando Gill struggled against the US in the opening game but has turned it around since then. Gill has 24 saves this tournament, the most of any goalkeeper so far. He has two clean sheets this World Cup and 5+ saves in three straight games. 

As good as Gill has been, he will be no match for France’s offense. Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé are both in the top five in goals scored, and Michael Olise leads the World Cup with five assists. 

Mbappé’s Race for the Golden Boot

Even if France beats Paraguay by 2+ goals, this wager only pays if Mbappé scores and assists on 2+ goals. The good news is that Mbappé has been nearly unstoppable this tournament. 

Mbappé has six goals and two assists through four games. If he maintains that production against Paraguay, he will easily cover 2+ combined goals and assists and hold up his end of the bargain in this Round of 16 bet. 

Norway (+310) Beats Brazil

Not every player in the Golden Boot race is favored to win in the Round of 16. Erling Haaland has five goals so far, tied for the third-most in the World Cup. As good as Haaland has been, Norway is a heavy underdog for its upcoming game against Brazil. 

Bovada has Norway listed at +310 odds to win against Canarinho. 

Neither team has been perfect so far this tournament. Norway was on the wrong side of a 4-1 blowout against France. Brazil also finished with two wins in the group stage after its 1-1 opening draw with Morocco.

The Brazilians needed a second-half comeback to beat Japan in the Round of 32, including a game-winner from Gabriel Martinelli in the 95th minute. If they start slow again, Haaland and Norway will be in a great position to pull off the upset. 

Mexico Wins and Shuts Out England (+385)

Mexico is one of two teams not to allow a goal so far in the World Cup. El Tri’s defense will be tested against Harry Kane and England. Kane has five goals already, but England has struggled to produce points outside of Kane. 

Mexico is a slight underdog but will be playing in front of a friendly crowd at Estadio Azteca. You can bet on El Tri to win and earn its fifth clean sheet at +385 odds. 

Mexico’s Four Clean Sheets

Mexico has continued its trend of playing well as a World Cup host country. El Tri has not allowed a goal in the tournament through four games, and goalkeeper Raúl Rangel has only needed to make six saves so far. 

Rangel will be tested against England, but he will be up to the task. 

Slowing down Kane is a tough task, but it is the key to stopping England’s offense. Mexico needs another strong showing from Johan Vásquez and César Montes. Counterattacking from Julián Quiñones and Roberto Alvarado will also be vital to Rangel’s chances of getting his fifth clean sheet in as many games. 

Can Harry Kane Keep England’s Hopes Alive?

Speaking of Kane, England will only go as far as he can take them. He has scored over half of the team’s goals in their first four games. 

England’s 0-0 draw against Ghana in the group stage showed how much it struggles when Kane is not able to take over. Breaking through Mexico’s line will be even tougher with the crowd and elevation working against Kane and company in Mexico City. 

Belgium Beats USA and Over 1.5 Total Goals Scored (+230)

Mexico could be the only co-host nation left after the Round of 16. Canada is a major underdog against Morocco, and I think Belgium can knock out the US. 

This game is close to a pick’em, with the US listed as a slight favorite to win. However, the USMNT will be without striker Folarin Balogun, their best player so far this World Cup. Belgium struggled to score early, but their offensive flurry in their last two games could end the USA’s run in this tournament. 

USA Playing Without Folarin Balogun

Christian Pulisic is the highest-profile player, but Folarin Balogun has been the best player for the USMNT this World Cup. Balogun has been the team’s leading scorer, racking up three goals in his three starts. 

Balogun received a questionable red card in the USA’s win over Bosnia-Herzegovina and will miss this matchup against Belgium. 

With Balogun out, there will be more pressure on Pulisic to have his first good game of the tournament. Pulisic has battled through a calf injury and is still seeking his first goal of the 2026 World Cup. Strikers Ricardo Pepi and Haji Wright also need to step up to pick up the slack with Balogun out. 

Belgium’s Offensive Surge

Belgium has had its fair share of struggles in the 2026 World Cup, starting the tournament with a pair of draws against Egypt (1-1) and Iran (0-0) in the group stage. 

After a slow start, Belgium exploded with a 5-1 win over New Zealand to close out the group stage. The Red Devils continued scoring in their 3-2 win over Senegal in the Round of 32. All three of their goals against Senegal came in the 86th minute or later. 

Belgium is an older team, and their endurance will be a factor as the World Cup goes on. However, their experience also gives The Red Devils a huge advantage over the Balogun-less USMNT. If Belgium can capitalize on Balogun’s absence, they will knock the US out of the World Cup. 

Where to Bet on the World Cup Round of 16

Bovada is a great option for betting on the Round of 16 in the 2026 World Cup. It offers moneyline, spreads, and player props for every matchup.

Sign up for a Bovada account today to wager on your Round of 16 predictions. New members who deposit using crypto can get a 75% deposit match, up to $750, to bet on their World Cup predictions.