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UKJapan Prediction Market Startups Test Gambling Rules With Point-Based Systems
Key Highlights
- Japan’s prediction market startups are using points and digital rewards to avoid direct cash gambling.
- The Miraima platform has grown to nearly 1 million monthly users since launching in November.
- Lawyers and lawmakers warn that regulatory scrutiny could increase as minors, addiction risks, and real-money ambitions raise concerns.
Cash-based prediction markets are banned in Japan, but a pair of platforms have found a legal workaround – and are surging in popularity.
Japan’s Prediction Market Apps Find A Legal Opening
The strict gambling rules in Japan have long kept prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi out of the country. However, startups Miraima and Poyp are skirting these rules, replacing cash bets with points that can be exchanged for gift cards, coupons, and retail loyalty rewards.
Miraima, founded by 27-year-old entrepreneur Keita Adachi, has already attracted nearly one million users since its November debut. Players earn points by creating an account, watching ads, or playing in-app games. They can wager those points on outcomes in sports, politics, and other real-world events and then convert points into rewards, including Amazon gift cards, PayPay payments, or Rakuten points.
Points, Sports & Politics Drive Early Growth
Prediction apps in Japan closely resemble global platforms in format, but not in payment structure. Unlike real-money prediction markets, no cash or cryptocurrency changes hands inside the apps. That distinction has helped startups position their products closer to games and rewards programs than gambling.
The apps also connect with poi-katsu, a popular Japanese habit of collecting reward points through shopping, payments, and promotions.
Miraima’s early growth has been strongest among men in their 20s. Political events, including Japan’s Lower House election in February, helped drive engagement, while sports wagers have recently become the most active category. Rapidly-changing odds encourage frequent app checks, which has driven startup growth while also raising responsible gambling concerns, even without direct cash wagers.
Regulators Face Pressure As Startups Look Ahead
Japan’s gaming culture makes the country attractive for prediction markets. Horse racing, speed boating, bicycle racing, and lotteries already occupy major roles in the country’s legal betting landscape, as does Pachinko. Pachinko, which is a game similar to Plinko but with elements of strategy, has long used an indirect token system, with prizes exchanged for cash through separate shops.
While still in something of a legal grey area in Japan, the startups contend their platforms avoid cash-gambling restrictions because users do not risk losing assets with direct monetary value. Sweepstakes rules, addiction concerns, and the lack of age restrictions on some point-based services could invite closer scrutiny.
Real-money prediction markets face a tougher path to market entry. Japan legalized casino resorts in 2018, but the first Osaka resort is not expected to open until 2030 and will come with tight controls.