World Cup Best Bets for July 1: England, Belgium, and USA in Knockout Action

The Round of 32 rolls on with three elimination matches today, and the stakes are as high as they get. England face a dangerous DR Congo side in Atlanta at noon, Belgium and Senegal meet in Seattle at 4:00 PM ET, and the USA close out the day against Bosnia and Herzegovina under the lights in San Francisco at 8:00 PM ET.

This is single-elimination soccer. Lose and you fly home. We have already seen Germany and the Netherlands knocked out in this round, so upsets are very real.

 Below, we break down the best odds from offshore sportsbooks, analyze each match using group stage data and advanced metrics, and give you a single pick per game backed by the sharpest available lines. For the full tournament picture, check out our World Cup betting hub.

Today’s Odds at a Glance

England are the heaviest favorites of the day at -335 on BetOnline. Belgium vs Senegal is the tightest match on the board, with Belgium listed as a slight favorite at +120 on Bovada. The USA sit at -255 on MyBookie, though Bosnia offer serious long-shot value at +815 on BetOnline for anyone chasing a flyer.

England vs DR Congo

12:00 PM ET | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

England topped Group L with 7 points, scoring 6 goals across three matches. Harry Kane bagged 3 goals in the group stage, and the attack clicked when opponents came out to play. The 4-2 demolition of Croatia showed what this squad can do in transition, with Kane, Bellingham, and Rashford all finding the net. The concern is the 0-0 draw with Ghana, where England looked toothless against an organized low block.

DR Congo are making history as the first Congolese team to reach a World Cup knockout round. Yoane Wissa has been sensational with 3 goals from just 1.87 xG, but that finishing rate is unlikely to hold against stiffer opposition. 

Congo defended well enough to draw 1-1 with Portugal and held Colombia to a single goal, so they can be stubborn. Expect them to sit deep and look to counter. England’s right-back depth took a hit with Reece James and Jarell Quansah both ruled out, forcing Djed Spence into the starting XI.

Additional Market: Anytime Goalscorer

Harry Kane is priced at -149 on Everygame to score anytime. He has 3 goals in 3 group games and will be on penalty duty. Against a DR Congo defense that failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their three group matches, Kane scoring at least once feels like the right side of that line.

Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (-110 on Bovada). DR Congo will park the bus like Ghana did, and England’s record against deep blocks in this tournament is one shot-starved 0-0 draw and a trough 2-0 win against Panama.

Three of seven completed Round of 32 matches have gone to extra time or penalties. Knockout soccer is tight, and this match profiles similarly. Bovada has the best Under 2.5 price at -110, the sharpest number available across the board.

Belgium vs Senegal

4:00 PM ET | Lumen Field, Seattle

Belgium won Group G with 5 points, but the path there was rocky. Draws against Egypt (1-1) and Iran (0-0) exposed a squad that struggles when opponents refuse to open up. The 5-1 win over New Zealand padded the stats, though Belgium’s defensive numbers are legitimately strong at just 0.98 xGA per game. De Bruyne, Trossard, and Doku give them serious attacking firepower when given space to operate.

Senegal are a high-event team. They scored 8 goals and conceded 6 across three group games, including a 5-0 thrashing of Iraq that made them the first African team to score 5 in a single World Cup match. 

The problem is the other side of the ledger. Senegal shipped 3 goals to France and 3 more to Norway. Making matters worse, first-choice goalkeeper Edouard Mendy is out with a knee injury, replaced by backup Mory Diaw. That is a significant downgrade between the posts for a team that already leaks goals.

Additional Market: Over 2.5 Goals

This total is sitting at +122 on Bovada, which is generous given what we know about these two teams. Senegal’s group stage featured 14 total goals across 3 matches. Belgium scored 7 on their own. BTTS hit in 2 of Senegal’s 3 group games. Belgium’s xGA averaged 0.98 per game in the group stage, but that number was propped up by weaker opponents. With Mendy out, the floodgates could open.

Pick: Belgium Moneyline (+120 on Bovada). Belgium are the better team on paper and are getting plus money in a knockout game. Senegal’s GK crisis is the decisive factor. Losing Mendy is massive for a defense that already conceded 6 goals in three games. Belgium struggled against low blocks (Iran 0-0), but Senegal will not sit back. That open, attacking style plays directly into Belgium’s hands with De Bruyne pulling the strings and Doku running at a shaky backline. Bovada’s +120 is the best available price.

USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

8:00 PM ET | Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara

The USA won Group D with 6 points, putting up 8 goals while rotating heavily for the dead-rubber loss to Turkey. That final-match defeat came with a B-team on the pitch, so discount it. 

The full-strength XI looked sharp in a 4-1 statement win over Paraguay and a professional 2-0 shutout of Australia. Pochettino managed his squad well, and key starters like Pulisic, Balogun, and McKennie are fresh for this one. The core XI is fully fit with no injury concerns among the projected starters.

Bosnia qualified as one of the best third-place teams, but their defensive record is a red flag. The 1-4 loss to Switzerland exposed serious issues at the back, even though a 3-1 win over Qatar showed they can compete against weaker opposition. 

Edin Dzeko, at 40 years old, might be playing his final World Cup match. The return of CB Tarik Muharemovic from suspension stabilizes the backline somewhat, but this is still a team that failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their three group games.

Additional Market: USA -1.5 Spread

MyBookie has the USA -1.5 spread at +111. Bosnia conceded 4 goals to Switzerland. The USA attack, led by Pulisic, Balogun, and McKennie, is at least as dangerous as that Swiss side, and they will have a packed house in San Francisco behind them. The home crowd at Levi’s Stadium should make this feel like a home game, and Bosnia are in their first-ever knockout match.

Pick: USA -1.5 (+111 on MyBookie). The value here is not in the moneyline at -255. At that price, you are laying heavy juice on a team to simply win. The spread at +111 gives you plus money on a two-goal margin, and the matchup supports it. 

Bosnia conceded 6 goals in 3 group games and got routed 1-4 by Switzerland. The USA have their full-strength lineup rested and ready, with Pochettino’s starters logging limited minutes in the Turkey loss. Levi’s Stadium will be rocking. MyBookie is offering the best spread price.

Where to Bet These World Cup Matches

BetOnline is the top book for today’s slate. They are offering the best moneyline prices on England (-335), the sharpest DR Congo long-shot line (+1375), the best Senegal number (+276), and the widest Bosnia price (+815). New players can grab a 50% welcome bonus up to $1,000 on their first deposit. BetOnline also supports same-game parlays on World Cup matches and live in-play betting with updated lines throughout each half.

For goalscorer props and exotic markets, Everygame carries the deepest menu, with anytime and first goalscorer odds across the full England and DR Congo squads. MyBookie has the strongest spread value with USA -1.5 at +111 and offers reduced juice on select World Cup lines. Both books feature live betting for all three matches today.