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UKLatest NFL MVP Odds & Predictions (2025)
The top of the NFL MVP odds boards features the league’s top quarterbacks. Any position can win the award, but QBs have dominated MVP voting for over a decade. The best sites to bet on the NFL have odds on hundreds of players, including every starting quarterback.
I analyze the top quarterbacks in this year’s MVP race below, including the favorites and the top sleepers for the 2025 season. Also, I will tell you my prediction for the 2025 regular-season NFL MVP.
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Odds to Win the 2025 NFL MVP Award
See the table below for the latest NFL MVP betting lines, using odds supplied by Lucky Rebel.
| Player | 2025 NFL MVP Odds |
|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | +125 |
| Drake Maye | +170 |
| Lamar Jackson | +325 |
| Josh Allen | +475 |
| Jonathan Taylor | +950 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +2000 |
After an offseason full of questions about his health, Matthew Stafford proved every doubter wrong by leading the Rams to an 8-2 start. He also leads the NFL in passing TDs through 11 weeks and is the +125 favorite to win his first MVP.
Drake Maye is not far behind at +175. Maye’s breakout second season has the Patriots as the surprising leaders in the AFC East. Lamar Jackson (+325) and Josh Allen (+475) round out the top four.
Jonathan Taylor has the best odds of any non-quarterback at +950. Taylor leads the NFL in rushing yards and rushing TDs this season.
Check out our Lucky Rebel Sportsbook review to learn more about the site that provided the above MVP odds.
Why Is Matthew Stafford the MVP Frontrunner?
After toiling away for more than a decade in Detroit, Matthew Stafford is cementing his Hall of Fame case in LA. Stafford has led the Rams to an 8-2 start, and Los Angeles is the +550 favorite to win it all in the latest Super Bowl 60 odds.
For his part, Stafford’s play has exceeded all preseason expectations. The 17-year veteran’s current ranks include:
- 2,557 passing yards – 6th
- 27 passing TDs – 1st
- 2 INTs – 2nd among QBs with at least five starts
- 68.7 QBR – 6th
- 112.7 passer rating – 3rd
Winning and playing mistake-free football are two keys to any MVP case, and Stafford has done both this season. If he can lead the Rams to the number-one seed in the NFC, he may very well lock up his first career MVP award.
Can Drake Maye Win the MVP in Year Two?
Second-year breakout QB Drake Maye has shot up MVP odds boards in recent weeks. Maye has led the Patriots to an eight-game winning streak and the best record in the AFC East. Through 11 weeks, New England is also the second seed in the conference, a half-game behind the Broncos for the top seed.
Top football betting sites list Maye at +175 to win MVP.
Maye has packed the stat sheet in his ascension to superstardom. His more impressive stats this season include the following:
- 71.9% completion percentage – 1st (min. 5 starts)
- 20 passing TDs – 4th
- 2,836 passing yards – 1st
- 73.2 QBR – 2nd
- 113.2 passer rating – 2nd
Like Stafford and the Rams, Maye and the Pats are currently the second seed in their conference. However, Maye and company have a much better shot at catching the Broncos for the top seed. Ending the Bills’ five-year division-winning streak and earning the top seed should be enough for Maye to claim MVP honors.
Is Lamar Jackson the Top NFL MVP Sleeper Pick?
The only QB with a better passer rating than Stafford and Maye is Lamar Jackson with a rating of 115.5. Jackson missed multiple games with injury this season but helped the Ravens climb out of their 2-5 hole upon his return.
Baltimore’s defense cost the team multiple games early in the year before Jackson’s injury. The team’s offense fell apart without him, proving beyond a shadow of a doubt how valuable Jackson is in Baltimore.
Helping the Ravens get back to a .500 record is not enough to secure Jackson the MVP, though. He is currently listed at +325 and has a long way to go to win his third MVP.
Winning the division would be a great start. Despite being 5-5 and a game behind Pittsburgh, Jackson and the Ravens are -345 favorites to win the North. Even if they win the division, though, Jackson and company’s slow start likely cost them any chance at a top seed, significantly hindering Jackson’s chances at MVP.
More 2025 NFL MVP Sleepers to Watch
Josh Allen, the reigning MVP, is currently fourth at +475 odds to win the award again this year. Allen has a lot of work to do to win his division, let alone the MVP. However, if he can lead the Bills to another division crown this year, he would certainly have the stats to back up another MVP title.
Jonathan Taylor has the best odds of any non-QB to win MVP this season at +950. However, as we saw with Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley in recent years, even record-setting seasons by RBs cannot break the stranglehold QBs have on the MVP award.
Patrick Mahomes is a distant fifth in the MVP odds at +2000. Mahomes and the Chiefs are in danger of missing the playoffs this season for the first time in his career. If Mahomes can lead KC to a miraculous and near record-setting 10th division title, he would be worthy of MVP consideration.
Tips for Betting on the NFL MVP Winner
Here are a few tips to help you pick which stars to bet on in this NFL futures bet.
Place Bets Early in the Season
Betting on a futures wager early in the season is the best way to secure the most value for your money.
For instance, when he closed the regular season as the favorite, Lamar was listed at -350. Now, to start the 2025 season, he is still the favorite but is available at +600 odds.
Also, since the odds offer better payouts, you can bet smaller amounts and pick up multiple MVP futures tickets for the same price. The more tickets you have, the better your chance of winning your MVP future.
Bet on a Quarterback to Win MVP
Many players, particularly running backs and wide receivers, have broken records in their attempts to win the MVP award. Cooper Kupp and Ja’Marr Chase won the receiving Triple Crown in 2021 and 2024, respectively. Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley have all had 2,000+ yards from scrimmage in recent years.
However, despite their best efforts, the MVP has been a quarterback every year since 2013.
Simply put, the AP voters who decide the MVP favor quarterbacks. So, bettors should follow their lead and bet on a QB with the NFL MVP futures tickets.
Look for Players Who Exceed Expectations
“Value” can be subjective but helping your team exceed expectations despite having a poor cast of players around you is a good way to prove you are the Most Valuable Player in the NFL.
The lack of Pro Bowlers and All-Pros on Buffalo’s roster last year is a major reason why Allen took home the MVP over Lamar. Identifying players who can elevate the talent around them is a good way to win your MVP futures bets.
Consider Recent Playoff Success
The regular season MVP is supposed to reflect the results of the regular season. However, MVP voters tend to hold playoff success, or lack thereof, against contenders.
This puts added pressure on players like Lamar Jackson, who is just 3-5 in the postseason. He already has two MVPs, but giving Jackson a third when he has fallen short in the biggest games of his career is a tough ask.
Betting on Who Will Win the 2025 NFL MVP
- Drake Maye (+170) – Bet now!
I highlighted Maye as an MVP sleeper earlier in the year, and the second-year QB has lived up to those expectations. His Patriots have an easier path to the number one seed in their conference than Stafford’s Rams do, and he has a chance to sweep last year’s MVP, Josh Allen, in Week 15. If Maye beats Allen again and takes down Jackson, another former MVP, the next week, he will be the MVP.
See the latest odds and bet on your 2025 NFL MVP pick at Lucky Rebel. New members who use the site’s 125% welcome promo can get up to $,1250 in extra funds for their futures bets.
