NFL Picks for Week 5 (2026)

Dallas leads off the NFL picks for Week 5 as a 7.5-point home favorite against Tampa Bay on Thursday Night Football. The Cowboys opened at -10.0, but the line has shifted toward the Bucs in the days since. 

Continue reading to see my NFL predictions for every Week 5 matchup. I also break down my favorite moneyline, ATS, and upset picks for this weekend’s games. 

Latest Week 5 NFL Odds

Lucky Rebel supplied the following NFL Week 5 odds. 

Top NFL betting sites have the Cowboys as the safest Week 5 NFL pick at -7.5 for their TNF showdown with Tampa Bay. As the biggest favorite of the week, Dallas has an implied win probability of 81.82%. 

The Jaguars (-7.0), Bengals (-7.0), and Texans (-7.0) are also laying a touchdown this weekend. 

Minnesota and New Orleans feature the smallest spread of the week. The Vikings are 1.5-point road favorites over the Saints. Minnesota’s dominant defense has helped the Vikings remain undefeated despite averaging the fewest yards per game on offense (262.8). 

Carolina and Kansas City are both on byes in Week 5. 

For more information about the sportsbook that provided our Week 5 NFL odds, read our Lucky Rebel review.

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Week 5 TNF Best Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5 (-110)

• Dallas has allowed the 3rd-most yards per game this year (389.5), including 150.3 rushing YPG (2nd-most).
• Tampa Bay’s defense is fourth in total yards allowed (282.8). They have also allowed just 204.3 passing YPG (9th-fewest) and 78.5 rushing YPG (3rd-fewest). 
• The Buccaneers had 141 rushing yards last week, including 55 yards on eight carries by QB Jalon Daniels.

Dallas opened the week as a 10.0-point favorite over the visiting Buccaneers in their Week 5 Thursday Night Football matchup. The Cowboys are still heavy favorites, but the line has dipped to a 7.5-point spread. 

Rookie Jalon Daniels, who was filling in for the injured Baker Mayfield (thumb), played well in his NFL debut last week. Tampa Bay lost 17-14, but Daniels and company covered their Week 4 spread and had a chance to win late. 

I think Daniels and the Bucs can cover the spread again this week. It is a short week, but Dallas has one of the worst defenses in the league. The Cowboys allow:

• 389.5 total YPG (3rd-most)
• 239.3 passing YPG (9th-most)
• 150.3 rushing YPG (2nd-most)
• 28 PPG (5th-most)

Daniels’ ability to scramble helped boost the Bucs’ rushing attack in his debut. After averaging just 94.3 rushing YPG in their first three games, Daniels helped Tampa Bay rack up 141 yards on the ground against Green Bay. Another productive day on the ground will help the Buccaneers cover the 7.5-point spread on TNF. 

Week 5 NFL Picks 

Here are more of my NFL Week 5 predictions. 

Best Week 5 NFL ML Picks (Straight Up)

• Jacksonville Jaguars (-320)
• Chicago Bears (-147)
• Atlanta Falcons (-155)

Jacksonville secured an upset win over the Bengals last week, improving to 3-1. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are -320 favorites this week to strengthen their hold on the AFC South with a win over the Eagles in London. Philadelphia is expected to be missing several key starters, including multiple o-linemen and potentially RB Saquon Barkley, making it unlikely they can pull off an upset. 

Chicago is another favorite to back at -147 odds to beat the Packers this weekend. Green Bay has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards this season, giving up 139.3 YPG. The Bears are the best rushing team in the league, averaging 196.3 rushing YPG, and will run over the Packers this weekend for an important division win. 

Atlanta is a riskier favorite at -155 to beat the Baltimore Ravens this weekend. The Ravens are 3-1 but will likely be without starting QB Lamar Jackson (ankle) on Sunday Night Football. RB Bijan Robinson averages 145.4 scrimmage yards in prime-time games, the highest in NFL history, and will lead the Falcons to their third win in as many weeks. 

Week 5 NFL Picks ATS

• Miami Dolphins +7.0 (-110)
• Tennessee Titans +7.0 (-117)
• Arizona Cardinals +4.5 (-115)

Miami (0-4) nearly upset the Vikings last week but fell 15-10 in Minnesota. The Dolphins are underdogs again this weekend, getting 7.0 points against the visiting Bengals. Cincinnati could be without WRs Ja’Marr Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (adductor), making it challenging to cover a large spread. 

I also like the Titans’ chances to cover a 7.0-point spread against the Texans this weekend. The Texans have a -25 point differential, only three points better than Tennessee, and have allowed 27.3 PPG (T-6th most). Their lack of defense this season makes the Texans too risky to back in ATS markets this weekend. 

Arizona is another underdog with a great chance to cover on Sunday at +4.5 for the Cardinals matchup against the visiting Lions. Detroit has allowed 31.8 PPG (2nd-most) and 423.8 total YPG (most). Jacoby Brissett and the Cards’ offense should move the ball easily against a Lions defense that allows the most passing yards in the league, keeping the score close enough to cover.  

Best Week 5 NFL Upset Picks

• Las Vegas Raiders (+162)
• Cleveland Browns (+115)
• San Francisco 49ers (+130)

Las Vegas is my top underdog of the week at +162 odds to beat New England. The Patriots have been the more inconsistent team this season, which will cost them against a Raiders defense that leads the NFL with nine forced turnovers. 

Cleveland is a small underdog this week, with +115 odds to beat the Jets at MetLife. New York is 1-3 and has lost three straight games, while the Browns are in the middle of a three-game winning streak. Cleveland had extra time to prepare after their big win over Pittsburgh on TNF, and their rest advantage will help them improve to 4-1. 

San Francisco (4-0) is a +130 underdog against the 3-1 Seahawks in their NFC West showdown this weekend. Sam Darnold has racked up 547 passing yards since returning from his hip injury, but he has struggled with interceptions, throwing three picks in the last two games. If those issues continue, the 49ers will pull off the upset this week and remain undefeated. 

NFL Week 5 Predictions

Minnesota (4-0) is a -130 road favorite against the Saints (1-3) on Sunday. New Orleans has a great passing offense, but their inability to run the ball will make it impossible to slow down a blitz-happy Vikings defense. Minnesota will be an even bigger favorite if WR Justin Jefferson is cleared to play. 

Oddsmakers have Indianapolis listed at +125 odds to beat Pittsburgh this week. The Colts are coming off a huge win in London, but the international travel puts them at a major disadvantage against a Steelers team that had extra rest. On the bright side, Jonathan Taylor should have a productive day against a Steelers defense allowing 4.35 YPC to opposing RBs. 

The Rams are -165 favorites to beat the Bills on MNF this week. Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense have struggled the last two weeks, and those issues will only get worse against a tough Rams’ defensive line. WR DJ Moore could also miss this game, limiting Buffalo’s passing offense. 

Where to Make Your Week 5 NFL Picks

Lucky Rebel has the best odds for betting on every NFL Week 5 matchup. You can wager on all 15 games this week, including my favorite bet of the week: Jacksonville Jaguars (-320) to beat the Philadelphia Eagles in London. 

Create a new Lucky Rebel account to bet on your Week 5 NFL picks. New members can gain $1,250 in bonus funds with the site’s 125% sports betting deposit match.