NFL Picks for Week 1 (2026)

My Week 1 NFL picks start with the first-ever season opener on a Wednesday and conclude with an AFC West divisional showdown on Monday Night Football. The opening weekend also includes a game in Australia and the Cowboys and Giants squaring off on Sunday Night.

Keep reading to see my NFL predictions for every matchup this week. I also highlight my favorite bets, detailing why each wager deserves a spot on your betting slip in Week 1.  

Latest Week 1 NFL Odds

Lucky Rebel provided the following NFL Week 1 odds. 

The 2026 season kicks off with a unique Wednesday night game that is also a rematch of Super Bowl 60. Defending champions Seattle are 3.5-point favorites at home against the visiting Patriots. 

There is also a Thursday night game in Week 1, pitting the 49ers against the Rams. While this is a home game for LA, it will be played in Australia rather than at SoFi. The Rams are 3.5-point favorites over their divisional rivals. 

Speaking of LA-based teams, the Chargers are the biggest favorite of opening weekend at -10.0 points. LA’s -550 money line odds imply a win probability of 84.62% against the visiting Cardinals. 

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2026 NFL Season Opener Best Bet: Seattle Seahawks Win (-190)

• Multiple Patriot starters are in danger of missing Wednesday’s opener, including RB TreVeyon Henderson and CB Christian Gonzalez.
• Seattle was 6-2 at home last season and has historically had a strong home-field advantage.
• Since 2004, defending Super Bowl champions are 15-5 in the kickoff game.

Seattle’s Super Bowl title defense starts with a rematch against New England. When these teams met in the Big Game, the Seahawks defense stifled the Pats while RB Kenneth Walker III racked up 161 total yards and won MVP honors. 

Walker is gone, but the Seahawks are still favored at -190 odds against New England on Wednesday. 

Seattle’s defense remains largely intact from last season and will be a problem for the Pats offense again this week. Also, the Patriots could be missing RB TreVeyon Henderson. 

Rhamondre Stevenson can make up for Henderson’s absence, but the team will miss the latter’s explosiveness. 

On the bright side, the Pats’ finally signed CB Christian Gonzalez to a new deal after he threatened to sit out this game.

Even with Gonzalez playing, the Seahawks are the best bet to win. Including the playoffs, Seattle was 8-2 at home last season. Rookie RB Jadarian Price will lead a committee of running backs that can replicate Walker’s dominance from the Super Bowl and lead Seattle to the win. 

Week 1 NFL Picks 

Here are my favorite Week 1 NFL picks available at top NFL betting sites.

Best Week 1 NFL ML Picks (Straight Up)

• Pittsburgh Steelers (-180)
• Houston Texans (-112)
• Philadelphia Eagles (-235)

Pittsburgh has one of the easiest Week 1 matchups with the Falcons coming to town. Atlanta has a wealth of skill-player talent but will once again be held back by the QB position. The Steelers were 6-3 at home last year, and their dominant defensive line will lead them to a win this weekend. 

Another home favorite to back in Week 1 is Houston, which is available at -112 to beat the visiting Bills. Buffalo is a Super Bowl contender, but it was no match for the Texans’ defense last season, which racked up eight sacks and three turnovers. Houston is also 18-8 at home under head coach DeMeco Ryans.

Rounding out my NFL moneyline picks for Week 1 is Philadelphia, which is a -235 favorite over the Commanders. Divisional games can be unpredictable, but the Eagles have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL and will control the line of scrimmage against a weak Commanders’ o-line.  

Week 1 NFL Picks ATS

• Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100)
• Cleveland Browns +8.5 (-110)
• Las Vegas Raiders -3.5 (+100)

Kicking off my list of NFL picks against the spread in Week 1 is Baltimore, a -3.5-point favorite over the Colts in Indianapolis. Lamar Jackson is 5-3 in season openers during his career. Also, the Ravens’ defense is expected to be much better than last year now that Jesse Minter is the head coach. 

I also like Cleveland to cover the spread at +8.5 against the Jaguars in Jacksonville. The Browns traded away Myles Garrett, but they still have a great defense. A rusty Jaguars offense without a defined WR1 will struggle to win by more than eight points in the opener. 

Las Vegas is a 3.5-point home favorite against Miami in Week 1. The Raiders were the worst team in football last season, but Miami is the frontrunner for that title this season. Las Vegas is also 7-3 in Week 1 over the last decade, including a win over the Patriots last year. 

Best Week 1 NFL Upset Picks

• San Francisco 49ers (+165)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+176)
• Denver Broncos (+127)

San Francisco is one of my favorite upset picks for Week 1. The 49ers are +165 underdogs against the Rams in the first international game of the season. San Fran is 8-5 against LA this decade, has the rest advantage, and is under far less pressure than LA to win this game. 

Tampa Bay is also on my list of upset candidates for the opening week of the NFL season. The Buccaneers are +176 underdogs against the Bengals. Tampa Bay had an explosive offense last season when its stars were healthy, and Cincy is just 3-9 in the first two weeks of the season since Joe Burrow became the starting QB. 

Denver is another round underdog to consider in moneyline wagers. The Broncos are +127 underdogs against the Chiefs on MNF. Denver led the NFL with 68 sacks last season, and KC’s Patrick Mahomes, who is less than a year removed from tearing his ACL and LCL, will have trouble evading the rush in this game. 

NFL Week 1 Predictions

Tennessee struggled in year one of the Cam Ward experiment, but it revamped its coaching staff and added the top WR in the Draft, Carnell Tate, for 2026. Ward and company are -125 favorites against the visiting Jets. This game is personal for Robert Saleh, who will do everything he can to lead the Titans to a win against his old team. 

Green Bay is a +105 underdog against the Vikings in Minnesota for their Week 1 showdown. Minnesota has a top-notch defense, but Kyler Murray is 0-2 in his career against Green Bay. The undersized Murray will come up short against the Packers again this week. 

Dallas is one of the biggest road favorites of the weekend at -160. Dak Prescott is 14-3 against the Giants in his career and has only lost once in his last 15 matchups against New York. The Dallas offense is also healthy to start the year, which is more than can be said for the G-Men, who could be without WR1 Malik Nabers. 

Where to Make Your Week 1 NFL Picks

Lucky Rebel is the ideal sportsbook for betting on your NFL picks every week, including the most anticipated season opener matchups. My top pick for Week 1 at Lucky Rebel is the Denver Broncos (+127) to upset the Chiefs in Kansas City on MNF. 

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