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UKLatest Heisman Odds & Predictions (2026)
The college football season is right around the corner, and the race for the 2026 Heisman Trophy is about to begin. Notre Dame’s CJ Carr is the early-season favorite to win the Heisman this season. Fellow QBs Arch Manning, Darian Mensah, and Dante Moore are also expected to be Heisman contenders this year.
I discuss the top 2026 Heisman contenders in the guide below. In addition to breaking down the odds, I will explain why players are contenders for the award and give my Heisman prediction.
Who Won the Heisman in 2025?
The most recent winner of the Heisman Trophy award was Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza. Mendoza became the first Hoosiers player to win the award after throwing 33 touchdowns en route to guiding Indiana to the #1 overall spot in college football.
His acceptance speech was also pretty emotional, even if you’re not a Hoosiers fan.
I’m not crying, you’re crying!
The signal caller earned 643 first place votes and 2,362 total points in the Heisman voting process, winning by a landslide. Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia (1,435) finished a very distant second.
Current 2026 Heisman Trophy Odds
See the table below for the latest 2026 Heisman Trophy odds, courtesy of Lucky Rebel.
| Player | Heisman Trophy Winner Odds |
|---|---|
| CJ Carr | +700 |
| Arch Manning | +850 |
| Darian Mensah | +1000 |
| Dante Moore | +1500 |
| Jeremiah Smith | +1500 |
| Julian Sayin | +1500 |
| Trinidad Chambliss | +1500 |
| Josh Hoover | +1600 |
| Gunner Stockton | +2200 |
| John Mateer | +2200 |
Top college football betting sites have Notre Dame’s CJ Carr as the opening favorite to win the 2026 Heisman at +700 odds. Carr struggled early last season but helped the Fighting Irish rip off 10 straight wins to end the season.
At his current odds, Carr has an implied win probability of 12.5%.
Arch Manning has the next-best odds after Carr. Manning, like Carr, was able to overcome a poor start last season and finish 9-3 before beating Michigan in the Citrus Bowl. If he can build on that success and help Texas win the SEC, Manning could be the third Longhorn to win the award.
Lucky Rebel has competitive Heisman Trophy winner odds on dozens of players ahead of the 2026 season. Read our Lucky Rebel review to learn more about this sportsbook.
Why is CJ Carr The 2026 Heisman Favorite?
Carr is the Heisman favorite going into the 2026 season, and Notre Dame’s schedule is a big reason why. The Fighting Irish only play three preseason-ranked teams, and all of them are scheduled for the second half of the season.
Notre Dame should be able to start 6-0 and build momentum for the second half of the season. If they are dominant enough, the Fighting Irish can even move into the top three of the AP rankings. They are currently number four in the preseason AP Top 25, giving them a head start over many other would-be contenders.
The second half of the season will be a different story. Carr and Notre Dame face #14 BYU, #7 Miami, and #19 SMU in their final six games.
Notre Dame also has to overcome the loss of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, who combined for over 2,000 rushing yards last season. Love, a Heisman finalist last year, and Price were both first-round picks in April’s NFL Draft. WR Malachi Fields, who was the team’s second-leading receiver last year, was also drafted.
The departure of Love and Price could be a blessing in disguise for Carr’s Heisman chances. Carr had fewer than 2,800 passing yards last year, failing to crack the top 50 in college football last season. Carr needs to have better stats to back up his Heisman resume if he wants to win the award this year.
Other 2026 Heisman Contenders
- Arch Manning (+850)
- Darian Mensah (+1000)
- Dante Moore (+1500)
Carr is far from the only QB generating Heisman buzz this offseason. Manning, Mensah, and Moore are all expected to lead their teams to the playoffs and make a case for the Heisman.
Arch Manning (+850)
Expectations were high for Manning and Texas last year, with the Longhorns opening as the #1-ranked team in the country. The hype around the Longhorns quickly disappeared when Texas lost 14-7 to Ohio State in the season opener.
Manning and the Longhorns found their footing, finishing 10-3, including a bowl win over Michigan.
A more experienced Manning should be able to hit the ground running this season against Texas State in Week 1. However, the Longhorns will face a tough matchup against the Buckeyes in Week 2.
Playing in the SEC will also be challenging this year. Six of the seven ranked opponents on the Longhorns’ schedule are other SEC teams. Winning the SEC with such a tough schedule will certainly put Arch in conversation for the Heisman.
Darian Mensah (+1000)
Mensah finished second in passing yards last season, racking up 3,973 yards for the Blue Devils in 2025. After one year with Duke, though, Mensah transferred again, this time heading to South Beach.
Miami lost in the National Championship game, and its roster is ready to contend again. Mensah will have plenty of weapons to work with this year, including breakout star Malachi Toney.
Mensah led Duke to an ACC title last year and should do the same for Miami this year.
Winning the ACC may not be enough to win the Heisman, though. Miami’s only ranked opponent is #4 Notre Dame. Mensah and company will need to make up for the lack of quality opponents by dominating their schedule this season.
Dante Moore (+1500)
Dante Moore opted to stay in college football another season rather than enter the 2026 Draft. The pressure is now on Moore to help the Ducks build on the CFP Semifinal appearance from last season.
Moore and the Ducks won 13 games last season but were dominated by Indiana 56-22 in their Peach Bowl matchup. Their only loss in the regular season also came at the hands of the Sooners.
Despite the losses to Indiana, Moore played well last season. He finished:
- 12th in passing yards (3,565)
- T-6th in passing TDs (30)
- 6th in completion percentage (71.8%)
Moore will have to play better than last year if Oregon is going to live up to expectations this year. The Ducks are ranked second in the preseason AP and Coaches polls and should be a playoff contender.
2026 Heisman Trophy Sleepers
- John Mateer (+2200)
- LaNorris Sellers (+4000)
- Will Hammond (+4500)
Fernando Mendoza proved last year that sleepers are still viable Heisman candidates. John Mateer (+2200), LaNorris Sellers (+4000), and Will Hammond (+4500) hope to recreate Mendoza’s success this season.
Mateer’s 2025 campaign was derailed by a hand injury. The Senior has plenty of experience and was a Heisman candidate before his injury last season. Assuming the QB is back at full strength, Mateer and the Sooners will be top contenders in a loaded SEC.
Sellers (+4000) is another sleeper to consider. The Gamecocks are far from title contenders, but the South Carolina QB is expected to have a big season. Sellers’ Heisman candidacy hinges on him leading SC to a winning record in one of the toughest conferences.
Hammond (+4500) is my last preseason sleeper to win the Heisman. The Texas Tech QB will assume starter duties after the Brendan Sorsby situation blew up in the Red Raiders’ faces. Hammond is an unproven prospect, attempting just 166 passes in two collegiate seasons, but Texas Tech has a championship-level roster around him.
Factors Driving Heisman Trophy Odds
Heisman voting can be a complicated process, but bettors must learn the ins-and-outs of the award to have a chance at winning their futures wagers.
- 3-2-1 voting system: Each voter ranks their three top choices. First place votes get three points, second gets two, and third place votes are worth one point.
- Best player on the best team: The Heisman is only awarded to one player, but team success is still a factor. Only one player, Notre Dame’s Paul Hornung (1956), has won the Heisman on a losing team.
- Importance of position and conference: Offensive players, especially quarterbacks, have an inherent advantage when it comes to Heisman voting. Players in more respected conferences, like the SEC and Big Ten, also have an easier time earning respect from voters.
- Individual greatness: A player must prove their individual worth, too. Big plays in big games are exactly what a contender needs to create their “Heisman” moment.
- Season-long performance: Candidates for the Heisman can emerge at any time in the regular season. However, player who have a whole season‘s worth of great performances are more likely to win than candidates who are inconsistent throughout the year.
- Heisman Hopefuls: A new fan-voting system called Heisman Hopefuls will debut this season, giving fans a chance to vote for who they believe should win the Heisman Trophy. Fans can vote daily throughout the season.
Heisman Trophy Betting Tips
Keep these three tips in mind when betting on your Heisman picks.
Bet on a QB
In years with weak QB performances, other positions can break through and win the award. However, with QBs dominating the odds boards this deep into the season, it is unlikely a skill position player wins the award. Eight of the last 10 Heisman winners have been quarterbacks.
Consider Strength of Schedule
Simply winning is not enough in college football. A team must beat good opponents to climb the rankings and outstanding performance against tough teams is the only way for a player to solidify their Heisman case. With that in mind, you should favor candidates who play tough schedules against multiple ranked opponents.
Shop for the Best Line Value
Comparing line value across sportsbooks is one of the best ways to ensure you always bet on the best odds. Dante Moore, for instance, is listed at +1000 odds at BetOnline. However, if you bet on Moore to win the Heisman at Lucky Rebel, you can get a much higher return of +1500 odds instead.
Past Heisman Trophy Winners
Check out the table below to see every Heisman Trophy winner in the last 10 years.
| Year | Heisman Trophy Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 | Fernando Mendoza |
| 2024 | Travis Hunter |
| 2023 | Jayden Daniels |
| 2022 | Caleb Williams |
| 2021 | Bryce Young |
| 2020 | DeVonta Smith |
| 2019 | Joe Burrow |
| 2018 | Kyler Murray |
| 2017 | Baker Mayfield |
| 2016 | Lamar Jackson |
2026 Heisman Trophy Winner Prediction
My top pick to win the 2026 Heisman is Oregon QB Dante Moore. The Ducks were one of the best teams in the nation last season, and playing the Big Ten ensures their schedule will be Heisman-worthy.
If Moore can take a step forward in his final season, he will do more than just compete for the Heisman. An improved Moore would be enough for the Ducks to compete for the National Championship this season.
Where to Bet on the 2026 Heisman Trophy Winner
Lucky Rebel is the best place to wager on the latest 2026 Heisman Trophy winner odds. You can bet on every top contender from across the country, including dozens of sleepers.
Create a new Lucky Rebel account today to bet on your Heisman winner predictions. As a new member, you can claim the site’s $1,250 welcome bonus to help fund your Heisman winner bets.
