Chestnut Leads 2026 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds

Joey Chestnut, the 17-time champion, is heavily favored in the latest Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest odds. Chestnut is the prohibitive favorite, but there are prop wagers that offer exciting ways to bet on all the top competitors for this year’s contest. 

I highlight the best Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest betting lines in the guide below. Continue reading to see the best hot dog eating odds ahead of this year’s 4th of July celebrations. 

2026 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds

BetUS provided the following odds for the 2026 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. 

To say Chestnut is favored to win the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest would be an understatement. He is listed at -2500 to beat the field (+800) at this year’s event. 

Chestnut’s current odds give him an implied win probability of 96.15%. The field, on the other hand, has an 11.11% win probability at 8-1 odds. 

BetUS also has totals odds for the top contenders, including Chestnut, Patrick Bertoletti, James Webb, and 11-time women’s champion Miki Sudo, among others. These props offer much better value than wagering on Chestnut’s odds straight up. 

Its various Nathan’s prop odds make BetUS the best place to wager on this year’s hot dog eating contest. Read our BetUS review to learn more about this novelty betting site. 

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Why Is Joey Chestnut the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Favorite?

Chestnut is the overwhelming favorite to win Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest at -2500 odds for one simple reason: he has only lost once since 2007. 

Matt Stonie beat Chestnut in 2015, eating 62 hot dogs to Chestnut’s 60. With the exception of the 2015 event, Chestnut has won this contest every year he has competed, and most years the competition has not been close. 

Chestnut was barred from competing in 2024, ending an eight-year winning streak. However, he returned last year and dominated the competition. 

He holds the world record for eating 76 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes at the 2021 event. Chestnut ate 70+ hot dogs in every competition from 2016 through 2021. He has only topped 70 HDB once in his last three appearances, though. 

Despite his final HDB eaten numbers declining in recent years, Chestnut is still the clear favorite. Any final total of 60+ HDB will likely win the event, and Chestnut has not finished with a total under 60 since 2010, when he won with 54 HDB eaten.   

Alternate Joey chest Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds

• Over 71.5 hot dogs (-280)
• Under 71.5 hot dogs (+180)

For better value on Chestnut, consider wagering on his total HDB eaten odds. Chestnut is listed at over/under 71.5 HDB eaten. The over is a -280 favorite in this prop bet. 

You can also bet on Chestnut beating his record by eating over 77.5 HDB at +140 odds. 

Chestnut has not finished with over 71.5 HDB since his record-setting 76 HDB performance in 2021. He came close last year, eating 70.5 HDB in the 10-minute time limit. 

Without another eater to truly push Chestnut to break his record, I think it is more likely that Chestnut finishes with under 71.5 HDB eaten in for the fourth time since 2021.

Will Joey Chestnut Compete While on Probation?

Yes, Chestnut will compete in this year’s Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest despite being on probation. 

Chestnut returned triumphantly to Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest last year after being banned from the event in 2024. However, the 17-time champion nearly missed the 2026 event, too. 

After pleading guilty to a misdemeanor battery charge in April, Chestnut was given 180 days of probation. On the bright side, Chestnut was given special permission from a judge to travel to Coney Island and compete in the 2026 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. 

Best Bets to Beat Joey Chestnut in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest?

There is no best bet to beat Chestnut in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. However, you can bet on totals markets for other well-known eaters taking the stage this July 4th. 

Patrick Bertoletti’s Total Hot Dogs Eaten

• Over 58.5 hot dogs (-120) 
• Under 58.5 hot dogs (-120)

In Chestnut’s absence at the 2024 competition, Patrick Bertoletti claimed the mustard-yellow belt. Bertoletti ate 58 HDB in the 10-minute time limit. 

For reference, while competing at an alternate, unrecognized event, Chestnut ate 57 HDB in five minutes, and Miki Sudo won the 2024 Women’s contest with 51 HDB. 

Bertoletti is listed at over/under 58.5 HDB, with both outcomes listed at -120 odds. 

Last year, Bertoletti struggled to keep up with Chestnut during the latter’s return. Bertoletti finished in second, eating 46.5 HDB in the time limit. He has a history of struggling to finish, let alone top 50 HDB. I recommend taking the under on Bertoletti in this totals prop. 

James Webb’s Total Hot Dogs Eaten

• Over 52.5 hot dogs (-125)
• Under 52.5 hot dogs (-115)

James Webb finished just behind Bertoletti last year, eating 45.5 HDB. His total for this year is set at over/under 52.5 HDB in 2026. 

Webb’s personal best is 52 HDB, which he set at the 2024 competition. Competing head-to-head with Chestnut could help push Webb to new heights. However, Webb would need to set a new personal best to cover his total in this wager. 

An accomplished MLE competitor, Webb holds multiple world records, including eating 55 Southside Market & Barbecue TX Sausages in 10 minutes earlier this year. The 2.5 oz sausages are slightly bigger than the 2.0 oz Nathan’s Hot Dogs, but Webb did not need to eat buns to set his record. 

Webb’s performance was still impressive and could indicate a personal best performance coming during this year’s Nathan’s competition. 

Geoffrey Esper’s Total Hot Dogs Eaten 

• Under 52.5 hot dogs (-125)
• Over 52.5 hot dogs (-115)

Geoffrey Esper is also listed at over/under 52.5 hot dogs and buns in the early Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest odds. 

The 51-year-old holds over a dozen world records, including:

• 76 Glier’s Brats (3.2 oz) in 10 minutes 
• 281 Hooters chicken wings in 10 minutes
• 36 brats (4.5 oz) in 10 minutes

His most recent record came at the 2025 Colorado State Fair, when Esper consumed 39 Sloppers (9 oz) in eight minutes. 

Esper’s performance at Nathan’s has been disappointing given his eating prowess. He has only eaten 50+ HDB once, when he set a personal best of 53 at the 2024 competition. With that in mind, I suggest taking the under on this wager. 

How Many Hot Dogs Will Miki Sudo Eat?

• Over 50.5 hot dogs (-110)
• Under 50.5 hot dogs (-130)

Joey Chestnut is not the only eater with a history of dominance at Nathan’s. Miki Sudo has won the women’s contest 11 times, second-most all-time behind Chestnut. 

In 2024, Sudo set the women’s world record by eating 51 HDB in 10 minutes. 

Sudo’s total is set at over/under 50.5 HDB for this year’s contest. She would need to at least tie her world record performance from 2024 to cover the over in this bet. That performance was the only time Sudo topped 50 HDB in the contest. 

In fact, Sudo has only earned 48+ HDB twice in competition. Last year, Sudo won the women’s contest by eating just 33 HDB. She is a lock to win the women’s contest, but I do not think Sudo will cover the total in this prop. 

Past Men and Women Contest Winners

Where to Bet on Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest in 2026

BetUS is the best sportsbook for wagering on early Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest betting odds. It has odds for top contenders, including the legendary Joey Chestnut and Miki Sudo. My top bet is for Chestnut to eat under 71.5 hot dogs (+180) in this year’s contest. 

Sign up for a BetUS account today to wager on the latest Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest lines. New members who use the code NEW200 can claim a 200% welcome bonus worth up to $3,000 across their first three deposits.