10 Biggest NFL Upsets of All Time

The biggest NFL upsets are proof that any team can win on any given Sunday. Just when you think you know how a game will play out, the underdog can flip the script and deliver an upset that sends shockwaves throughout the league.

From regular season rallies to Super Bowl stunners, these games prove that no favorite is ever truly safe. Let’s take a look back through history to uncover the 10 biggest NFL upsets of all time.

What is an NFL Upset?

An NFL upset happens when the underdog beats the favorite, plain and simple. Oddsmakers set the stage with a point spread, showing how many points the stronger team is expected to win by. When the underdog not only covers the spread but wins outright, that’s a true upset.

On the moneyline, it’s even clearer. Favorites come with short odds (like -200), while underdogs get plus money (like +400). When a team with long odds pulls off the upset, the payout can be massive and the shock value is just as big.

Upsets are what keep the NFL unpredictable. They remind bettors—and even top NFL sportsbooks—that no game is ever a lock, and sometimes the least likely outcome ends up being the one everyone talks about. That mix of surprise and possibility is exactly what makes NFL betting so much fun!

Top 10 NFL Upsets of All Time

Now that we’ve covered what makes an upset, let’s run through the games that have stunned NFL bettors the most over the years. These picks aren’t just about point spreads; they also factor in the drama, timing, and impact of each game.

10. Tennessee Titans (+10) vs. Baltimore Ravens – AFC Divisional Round (2020)

The Ravens entered the 2019 playoffs looking unstoppable. They’d gone 14–2 behind MVP Lamar Jackson, led the league in scoring, and were favored by 10 points to cruise past Tennessee. Instead, the Titans delivered one of the biggest NFL playoff upsets in recent memory.

From the opening snap, Tennessee set the tone. Derrick Henry bulldozed through Baltimore’s defense for 195 rushing yards, including a highlight-reel jump pass touchdown that surprised everyone watching. Ryan Tannehill had just 88 passing yards, but he made them count with two early scores that put the Ravens on their heels. Baltimore’s high-powered offense, meanwhile, sputtered in the red zone and never found its rhythm.

This wasn’t just a big upset; it was a season-defining collapse. The Ravens, who many thought were Super Bowl-bound, were sent home early, while the Titans advanced to the AFC Championship Game. Bettors who rolled with Tennessee cashed in big, but the real story was how a physical, ground-and-pound team humbled the league’s most dominant regular-season squad.

9. Seattle Seahawks (+10.5) vs. New Orleans Saints – NFC Wild Card (2011)

As defending Super Bowl champions, the Saints rolled into Seattle as heavy 10.5-point favorites. The Seahawks had stumbled to a 7–9 record that year, only making the playoffs because the NFC West was historically weak. Most assumed Drew Brees and company would cruise. Instead, Seattle delivered one of the biggest upsets in NFL playoff history.

Matt Hasselbeck played one of his best postseason games, throwing four touchdown passes and keeping the Saints’ defense on its heels. But the lasting image from this upset came in the fourth quarter. Marshawn Lynch broke nine tackles on a legendary 67-yard touchdown run. The play was later dubbed the “Beast Quake” because the crowd noise literally registered as seismic activity. That play slammed the door on New Orleans, sealing a 41–36 victory.

The upset didn’t just wreck playoff brackets and betting slips—it redefined the Seahawks. The win gave Seattle instant credibility under head coach Pete Carroll and set the stage for the Legion of Boom era. This game was proof that playoff football doesn’t care about records. It also served as a costly reminder that double-digit favorites aren’t guaranteed anything in January.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars (+16) vs. Buffalo Bills – Regular Season (2021)

On paper, this one looked like a mismatch of epic proportions. The Bills were rolling at 5–2 on the season, powered by one of the league’s most explosive offenses. The Jaguars, meanwhile, were sitting at 1–6 and in full rebuild mode. With Buffalo favored by 16 points, most fans expected a blowout. Instead, they got one of the ugliest and most surprising results of all time.

Jacksonville’s defense set the tone, pressuring Buffalo into mistakes all afternoon. In a twist of fate, Jaguars linebacker Josh Allen stole the spotlight by sacking, intercepting, and recovering a fumble from quarterback Josh Allen—an NFL first. The Jags’ offense didn’t do much, but they didn’t need to. Six field goals were enough to secure a shocking 9–6 win.

The Jaguars didn’t have one of the greatest NFL defenses of all time, yet on this day they looked the part, harassing Josh Allen, forcing turnovers, and proving that effort and execution can sometimes outshine raw talent. Bettors who backed the Jags got rewarded, while anyone who took Buffalo saw their tickets shredded. 

7. Buffalo Bills (+16.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings – Regular Season (2018)

The Vikings were a hot Super Bowl pick in 2018, fresh off an NFC Championship run with a shiny new quarterback in Kirk Cousins. Hosting the Bills, who came in as a 16.5-point underdog led by a rookie Josh Allen, this matchup was expected to be a walkover. But things don’t always turn out as planned.

Buffalo came out swinging. Josh Allen scored twice on the ground in the first half, hurdling defenders and showing flashes of the fearless style that would later define his career. The Bills’ defense dominated Minnesota’s offensive line, forcing turnovers and keeping Cousins under constant pressure. By halftime, the game was effectively over with Buffalo holding a stunning 27–0 lead.

The final score—27–6—wasn’t just a win, it was a statement. Bettors who backed Buffalo cashed in big, while most who laid heavy money on Minnesota were left stunned. Looking back, this upset became a turning point in how people viewed Josh Allen, transforming him from an unproven rookie into a quarterback with real potential. 

6. New York Jets (+17.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams – Regular Season (2020)

The 2020 Jets were winless through 13 games, looking destined for a 0–16 season and the No. 1 overall draft pick. New York was a 17.5-point underdog traveling to face the playoff-bound Rams, so no one expected anything but another blowout loss. Then, in true underdog fashion, they flipped the script.

Led by quarterback Sam Darnold, the Jets played disciplined football, avoiding turnovers and leaning on a defense that harassed Jared Goff into mistakes. Running back Frank Gore added some hard-nosed carries, helping New York control the game’s tempo. By the fourth quarter, the Jets had built a lead they refused to give up, shocking the Rams with a 23–20 victory in Los Angeles.

This result wasn’t just a betting bombshell—it was a franchise-altering twist. The win cost the Jets pole position in the draft, eventually allowing Jacksonville to grab Trevor Lawrence. For the Rams, it was a jarring stumble in a season that still ended with a playoff berth. For everyone else, it was proof that even the weakest roster in the league can deliver one of the biggest NFL upsets ever when pride and effort take over.

5. Miami Dolphins (+17.5) vs. New England Patriots – Regular Season (2019)

The Patriots entered the final week of the 2019 season needing just one win to lock up a first-round playoff bye. Facing a 4–11 Dolphins team in Foxborough, oddsmakers made New England a massive 17.5-point favorite. It looked like a tune-up game before another deep playoff run. Instead, it became one of the biggest upsets in NFL history by spread.

Ryan Fitzpatrick—better known as “FitzMagic”—threw for 320 yards and engineered a last-minute touchdown drive that shocked the Gillette Stadium crowd. The Dolphins’ defense frustrated Tom Brady all afternoon, forcing him into mistakes and holding New England to just 24 points. Miami’s 27–24 victory quickly turned heads around the league.

The result was more than just a spread-buster. New England lost its first-round bye, was forced into Wild Card Weekend, and promptly fell to Tennessee. For Miami, it was a signature victory in a rebuilding year and another reminder that underdogs can wreck the best-laid playoff plans. The game wiped out countless entries in the best NFL survivor contests and was a season-defining example of why you can never take a “sure thing” for granted when betting on football.

4. Washington (+17.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys – Regular Season (1995)

With Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, and Michael Irvin leading the way, the 1995 Cowboys looked like a juggernaut. Dallas was cruising toward another Super Bowl run and entered their Week 14 matchup against Washington as 17.5-point favorites. Practically nobody gave Washington a chance, yet that’s when the biggest upsets tend to occur.

Washington played inspired football, leaning on a physical defense and timely plays to frustrate the heavily favored Cowboys. Dallas, known for their explosive offense, simply couldn’t get anything going. The game shocked fans and oddsmakers alike, as the underdog pulled off the upset and walked away with a 24–17 victory that sent ripples across the NFL.

This game remains one of the largest regular season upsets by spread ever recorded. Beyond the betting implications, it was a reminder that even a dynasty-level team can stumble when an overlooked rival shows up ready to fight. Washington’s win didn’t change the Cowboys’ path to the Super Bowl that year, but it carved out its own spot in NFL lore.

3. New York Giants (+12.5) vs. New England Patriots – Super Bowl XLII (2008)

Few games capture the drama of the NFL like the Giants’ shocking win over the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. New England came in at 18–0, riding one of the most dominant seasons in NFL history, and oddsmakers had them as a 12.5-point favorite to finish the job.

The Giants had other plans. They played fearless football, relying on a relentless pass rush to rattle Brady and the Patriots. The defining moment came late in the fourth quarter: Manning escaped a near-sack and heaved a desperation throw that David Tyree pinned against his helmet. That miraculous play set up the game-winning touchdown to Plaxico Burress, sealing a 17–14 Giants victory.

The upset didn’t just ruin New England’s shot at perfection—it cemented the Giants as giant-slayers. Eli Manning’s poise under pressure, paired with that unforgettable Helmet Catch, turned this game into one of the sport’s most replayed moments. Taking the Giants moneyline paid handsomely, and covering the +12.5 spread was never in doubt. And while oddsmakers took a beating with such a massive underdog win, fans got one of the most thrilling Super Bowl finishes ever.

2. New England Patriots (+14) vs. St. Louis Rams – Super Bowl XXXVI (2002)

In addition to being one of the biggest Super Bowl upsets, Super Bowl XXXVI is also remembered as the game that launched a dynasty. The Rams, dubbed “The Greatest Show on Turf,” were 14-point favorites with Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, and a high-octane offense that looked unstoppable. Most people thought the Patriots would be lucky just to keep it close.

Instead, a young Tom Brady and Bill Belichick stunned the football world. New England’s defense kept St. Louis off balance, forcing turnovers and slowing down their explosive passing game. Brady, still a relative unknown at the time, orchestrated a late drive that set up Adam Vinatieri’s game-winning field goal as time expired. Final score: Patriots 20, Rams 17.

From a betting perspective, this is easily one of the biggest NFL playoff upsets ever. Anyone who took New England at +14 against the spread walked away happy, and moneyline bettors hit the jackpot with a wildly profitable upset. More importantly, this game marked the birth of the Brady–Belichick era, proving that yesterday’s underdog could be tomorrow’s favorite. 

1. New York Jets (+18) vs. Baltimore Colts – Super Bowl III (1969)

When people talk about the biggest NFL upsets of all time, this one is usually at the top of the list. The Colts came in as an 18-point favorite, widely considered unbeatable after steamrolling the NFL that season. The Jets, on the other hand, were dismissed as inferior, representing the AFL, which many thought couldn’t compete with the “real” league.

Then came Joe Namath’s famous guarantee. Broadway Joe told reporters the Jets would win, and incredibly, he backed it up with a 16-7 victory. Namath didn’t even throw a touchdown, but he managed the game perfectly, and the New York defense rattled the heavily favored Colts all day.

For NFL bettors, this wasn’t just an upset—it was a payout dream. Anyone brave enough to grab the Jets on the moneyline at massive plus odds cashed in big. To this day, it’s remembered not only as the biggest upset in NFL history by spread, but also as one of the most impactful, helping legitimize the AFL and shaping the Super Bowl into the spectacle it is now.

Why NFL Upsets Happen

NFL upsets don’t just happen by luck—there are always factors that tilt the playing field. Bettors who recognize these signs early can spot underdog value before the rest of the market catches on.

Here are the main reasons why upsets happen (and how bettors can predict them):

What is the Biggest Upset in NFL History?

While the NFL has delivered countless shockers, most fans and historians agree the biggest upset in NFL history came in Super Bowl III. The New York Jets, 18-point underdogs, stunned the mighty Baltimore Colts 16–7 after Joe Namath famously guaranteed victory. 

The win didn’t just reward bold bettors—it legitimized the AFL, reshaped pro football, and set the stage for the Super Bowl’s rise as America’s biggest sporting event. No other upset has made such a seismic impact on the NFL.