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UKEven Casino Side Bets Are Easier to Hit Than Pokémon Chase Cards
Pokémon collectors know the feeling. You rip open a booster pack hoping to find the card everyone’s chasing, only to discover another handful of cards you already own. Every so often, someone lands an incredible pull. For everyone else, the hunt can go on for quite a while.
But how difficult is finding one of those chase cards compared with winning a casino side bet?
We compared five of the most sought-after Pokémon cards with four casino outcomes, including side bets in blackjack and baccarat. Every featured card had longer estimated odds than the casino results we examined. Team Rocket’s Mewtwo ex, for instance, is about 23 times harder to pull than hitting Dragon 7 in EZ Baccarat. Umbreon ex from Prismatic Evolutions is an even longer shot, with a single-number win in European roulette nearly 40 times more likely.
Pokémon Pull Rates vs. Casino Odds
Placing side bets at a casino frequently offer larger payouts for outcomes that don’t occur particularly often. The same sense of anticipation surrounds Pokémon chase cards, especially when collectors are searching for one specific pull.
We wanted to find out which outcomes were actually harder to hit.
Using five major chase cards from recent Pokémon sets, we compared their estimated pull rates with four casino bets. We used $5.99 as the price of a booster pack and the amount wagered at the casino to keep the comparison consistent.
| Pokémon Set or Casino Game | Card or Bet | Estimated Hit Rate | Gross Value or Return | Return on Success |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prismatic Evolutions | Umbreon ex #161 | ~0.069% (1 in 1,440) | $1,442.34 | 23,979% |
| Destined Rivals | Team Rocket’s Mewtwo ex #231 | ~0.097% (1 in 1,033) | $539.41 | 8,905% |
| Twilight Masquerade | Greninja ex #214 | ~0.125% (1 in 800) | $319.38 | 5,232% |
| Surging Sparks | Pikachu ex #238 | ~0.133% (1 in 750) | $309.43 | 5,066% |
| Journey Together | Lillie’s Clefairy ex #184 | ~0.193% (1 in 518) | $120.00 | 1,903% |
| European roulette | Single-number bet | 2.70% (1 in 37) | $215.64 | 3,500% |
| EZ Baccarat | Dragon 7 side bet | 2.25% (1 in 44) | $245.59 | 4,000% |
| Blackjack | 21+3 Unsuited Three of a Kind | ~0.50% (1 in 198) | $185.69 | 3,000% |
| Craps | Hard 6 | 9.09% (1 in 11 resolved bets) | $59.90 | 900% |
Even Casino Side Bets Are Easier to Hit Than Pokémon Chase Cards
Casino side bets aren’t exactly known for hitting frequently. Dragon 7 in EZ Baccarat requires the Banker to win with a three-card total of seven, while blackjack’s 21+3 side bet uses the player’s first two cards and the dealer’s upcard to form poker-style combinations. Both can produce sizable payouts when the right cards appear.
Yet the Pokémon chase cards in our study were even tougher to find.
Team Rocket’s Mewtwo ex has an estimated pull rate of one in 1,033 packs, making a Dragon 7 win roughly 23 times more likely. Even Lillie’s Clefairy ex, the most commonly pulled of our five cards, is harder to find than hitting an unsuited Three of a Kind on blackjack 21+3. Under the six-deck setup, that blackjack outcome is about 2.6 times more likely.
That’s a considerable difference when you’re comparing outcomes that are already relatively uncommon, since finding one particular chase card can involve much longer odds than landing a casino side bet.
Pulling Umbreon Is Nearly 40 Times Harder Than Hitting a Roulette Number
Umbreon ex has become one of the defining chase cards of Prismatic Evolutions. It’s the pull collectors hope to see when they open a pack, but even those who’ve worked through stacks of boosters could still be waiting for their first copy.
Here’s how its estimated pull rate compares with hitting a single number in European roulette.
| Chance of success | Value of a successful hit | |
|---|---|---|
| Umbreon ex | 1 in 1,440 packs | 1 in 37 spins |
| European Roulette | $1,442.34 | $215.64 |
*Based on a $5.99 pack or wager. Umbreon’s value is an ungraded price recorded during our research.
A straight-up roulette bet is already one of the tougher ways to win on the wheel, yet it’s nearly 40 times more likely to hit than an Umbreon pull. The card is worth considerably more than the roulette payout in our comparison, although finding one is a much bigger ask.
Roulette pays the same amount whenever your chosen number lands. Two Umbreon cards, however, won’t necessarily fetch the same price. A clean copy with strong centering could attract collectors looking for a potential PSA 10, while one with visible flaws might sell for less.
What Makes the Casino Outcomes Different?
The four casino bets cover a wide range of odds and payouts.
Hard 6 in craps is the easiest casino result to hit in our comparison, but it also has the smallest payout. Roulette and Dragon 7 offer bigger payouts for less frequent wins.
Blackjack’s unsuited Three of a Kind is the rarest casino result we looked at. Even so, it’s more likely than pulling any of the five Pokémon cards.
Casino payouts are set by the game rules, while Pokémon pull rates are estimates and card prices can change. These figures show which outcomes are easier to hit, not which activity offers the better financial return.
What Happens When You Open More Pokémon Packs?
The difference becomes even more interesting when you consider how many packs a collector might open while chasing one card.
Using Umbreon’s estimated 1-in-1,440 pull rate, we calculated how the chances change as you open more Prismatic Evolutions packs.
| Packs Opened | Cost at $5.99 Per Pack | Chance of Pulling at Least One Umbreon |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | $59.90 | 0.7% |
| 100 | $599.00 | 6.7% |
| 500 | $2,995.00 | 29.3% |
| 1,440 | $8,625.60 | 63.2% |
Five hundred packs is a serious opening session. At our assumed price, you’d have spent almost $3,000, yet there would still be around a 71% chance of missing Umbreon.
Even reaching 1,440 packs wouldn’t guarantee a copy. Roughly 37% of collectors in that hypothetical situation would still be waiting for their first one.
Those packs could contain plenty of other valuable cards, but the table only tracks Umbreon. And no matter how unlucky the previous packs have been, the next one isn’t due for a hit. Each pack has the same estimated chance of containing Umbreon, whether it’s your first or your five-hundredth.
Why Pokémon Chase Cards Have Become Such a Big Deal
Pokémon collecting has come a long way from swapping cards at school. Today, collectors open booster boxes hunting standout illustrations of favorites like Umbreon and Pikachu, while others pay hundreds for the singles they want.
Streaming pack openings have become entertainment in their own right, with viewers waiting for the big pull. Researchers have also examined the appeal of randomized packs, finding an association between spending on physical trading card packs and problem-gambling measures. That doesn’t make collecting the same as casino gambling, but it helps explain why the anticipation feels familiar.
Grading can add to the excitement. A pristine copy with a shot at PSA 10 may be worth far more than the same card with visible flaws.
Why Rare Pokémon Cards Don’t Always Fetch the Highest Prices
Rarity only gets a card so far. Popular characters and memorable artwork can push prices much higher than pull rates alone might suggest.
Umbreon is a good example. Its recorded value was $1,442.34, compared with $120 for Lillie’s Clefairy ex. Umbreon was roughly three times harder to pull, yet cost about 12 times as much. Collector demand helps explain the gap.
Greninja ex and Pikachu ex were much closer in both pull rates and prices. But prices can move as new sets arrive, more copies are opened, and collectors turn their attention elsewhere. A PSA 10 can still command a premium, especially when few copies have earned that grade. And finding a valuable card doesn’t mean you’ve come out ahead if you’ve spent more opening packs than the card is worth.
Buying Pokémon Singles vs. Booster Packs
Opening packs is part of the fun, but buying singles takes chance out of the equation when you’re chasing one particular card. The Umbreon figures from our research show just how much that distinction can matter.
At our assumed price of $5.99 per pack, opening 500 Prismatic Evolutions boosters would cost $2,995. That’s more than twice Umbreon’s recorded market value of $1,442.34, yet you’d still have roughly a 71% chance of not finding one. Buying the card outright removes that uncertainty, although you’d miss out on whatever else those packs might contain.
There’s also the question of condition. Collectors looking for a potential PSA 10 can compare centering, corners, and surface quality before buying, rather than hoping their next big pull is in grading-worthy shape.
For anyone determined to own a specific chase card, the numbers make buying singles a compelling option. Opening packs offers the excitement of the hunt, but it isn’t the most predictable way to complete a collection.
A Winning Bet and a Rare Pull Aren’t the Same
Our research found that all five featured Pokémon chase cards were harder to pull than the four casino outcomes we examined. Even the rarest casino result in the study, an unsuited Three of a Kind on the blackjack 21+3 side bet, was more likely than finding any of those cards.
But there’s more to the comparison than the chances of getting lucky. A casino side bet has a fixed payout, and a losing wager leaves you with nothing from that bet. Opening a Pokémon pack is different. You might miss the chase card, but still find something worth collecting, trading, or adding to your deck. And if you do land a rare pull, its value can change over time.
A winning roulette spin might make your night. Pulling an Umbreon you’ve been chasing for months could give you a card you’ll keep for years.
Research Methodology
Pokémon Card Selection and Pull Rates
Five high-profile chase cards from different Pokémon sets were selected for comparison using estimated individual-card pull probabilities.
- Pull-rate estimates: The Pokémon Company does not publish official pull probabilities. The figures used in this study are based on third-party pack-opening data and estimated rarity distributions. Actual pull rates may differ from these estimates.
- Individual cards: Where direct card-level estimates were unavailable, probabilities were derived from estimated rarity-tier frequencies, assuming approximately equal distribution among cards within the tier.
- Pack price: A standardized cost of $5.99 per booster pack was applied for comparability. Actual retail prices vary by set, product format, and retailer.
- Card values: Values represent ungraded market-price snapshots recorded during the research period. They are not current quotations or guaranteed resale proceeds.
Casino Odds and Payouts
Casino probabilities and returns were calculated using the representative game rules and paytables specified below. Results may differ across casino variants and paytables.
- European roulette: A straight-up wager on a 37-pocket wheel, with a 35:1 payout.
- EZ Baccarat: The Dragon 7 side bet pays 40:1 when the Banker wins with a three-card total of seven. The analysis assumes an eight-deck game and an estimated occurrence rate of 2.25%.
- Blackjack: A six-deck 21+3 side bet, with a 30:1 payout for an unsuited Three of a Kind and an estimated occurrence rate of 0.50%.
- Craps: A Hard 6 wager with a 9:1 payout. The probability of 1-in-11 refers to resolved wagers, not individual rolls.
Probabilities and payouts are specific to these assumptions and should not be generalized to all game configurations.
How We Worked Out the Returns
A common baseline of $5.99 was used for both the cost of one booster pack and the stake on each casino wager.
For casino wagers, gross return includes the original stake on a winning outcome. For Pokémon cards, gross value refers to the estimated ungraded resale price before grading, transaction, or selling fees.
Return on Success is the net gain from a single successful outcome relative to the $5.99 baseline. It does not represent expected value, long-run profitability, or the house edge of a casino game.
The analysis compares the likelihood of specified outcomes. It does not imply that opening booster packs and placing casino wagers have equivalent financial characteristics.
