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UKFrance vs England Best Bets: World Cup Third-Place Playoff Picks for July 18
France and England meet in the World Cup bronze final on Saturday, and the storylines carry more weight than the medal. Mbappé sits on 8 goals, tied with Messi for the Golden Boot, and since Messi plays in Sunday’s final, this is Mbappé’s last shot to win the award outright. It also closes Didier Deschamps’ 12-year run in charge, a send-off Mbappé said the squad owes him against a tired, heavily rotated England.
This post breaks down the full Bovada odds board, the Moneyline, spread, and totals markets, and the numbers behind both squads. For deeper context on the tournament, see our World Cup betting guide.
Odds Overview
| Match | ML Favorite | ML Underdog | O/U | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France vs England (5 PM ET) | France -110 (Bovada) | England +290 (Bovada) | 2.5 (Bovada) | -222 (Bovada) | +180 (Bovada) |
France sit as clear favorites at -110 on the three-way Moneyline, with the Draw at +280 and England out at +290. The total leans toward goals: Over 2.5 is juiced to -222, a sign the market expects an open, stretched game in the Miami heat.
France vs England
5:00 PM ET | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens
France reached the semifinal unbeaten, winning six matches by a combined 16-2 before a 2-0 loss to Spain. That Spain match was the only game all tournament where France created under 0.5 xG; everywhere else they averaged about 2.1 xG per game and conceded just 0.8. Mbappé has 8 goals and 3 assists, Dembélé has added 5, and France carry an extra day of rest. William Saliba is out with a back injury, but France are expected to rotate only lightly, with Mbappé starting. They have never lost a World Cup third-place match, winning in 1958 and 1986.
England arrive banged up and likely to rest starters. They lost 2-1 to Argentina in the semi, conceding on 85 minutes and in stoppage time despite Argentina creating just 0.61 xG. England kept no clean sheets in the entire knockout stage, conceding in all four rounds and shipping 8 goals across their last seven games. The attack still fires, with 14 goals in that span and Kane and Bellingham on 6 apiece, but manager Thomas Tuchel may rest Kane, Bellingham, Rice, and Saka, handing starts to Watkins, Mainoo, and Rogers. England faded late all tournament, needing extra time against Norway and collapsing late against Argentina.
The math favors France. The xGscore model projects France at 2.0 xG to England’s 1.3, a 2-1 France scoreline, and leans Over 2.5 with Both Teams to Score Yes. France’s freshness edge and sharper finishing meet an England defense that never locked a knockout game down, and a 5 PM Miami kickoff means heat and humidity that tends to stretch the match late and reward the fresher side. If you want draw insurance, the two-way France price at -195 or the France -0.5 spread at -110 removes the Draw from the equation.
The most compelling additional market is Mbappé anytime goalscorer at -148 on Bovada. He leads the tournament in shots, he is chasing the Golden Boot on his last day to win it, and England have not kept a clean sheet in a knockout match.
Pick: France Moneyline -110: France’s freshness, sharper finishing (2.1 xG per game against a leaky England defense with zero knockout clean sheets), and the Mbappé and Deschamps motivation all point one way. Bovada’s -110 is the sharpest available number for backing France to win. Those wanting draw insurance can take the two-way France -195 or the France -0.5 spread at -110, both on Bovada.
Where to Bet on Today’s World Cup Match
Bovada offers the full market for this match: France -110 Moneyline, England +290, and totals at O/U 2.5, 3.0, and 3.5. Key props include Mbappé anytime goalscorer at -148 and Both Teams to Score Yes at -235. Live betting runs throughout the match, and the mobile platform handles in-play wagers smoothly.
