NFL Picks for Week 4 (2026)

An AFC North battle between the Steelers and Browns leads off my NFL picks for Week 4. Every team in the division is 2-1, so this week’s Thursday Night Football matchup will have major early-season implications. 

Continue reading to see my NFL predictions for every game in Week 4. Also, I pick my favorite bets of the week and tell you where to find the best odds on this weekend’s games. 

Latest Week 4 NFL Odds

Here are the latest NFL Week 4 odds, courtesy of Lucky Rebel.  

Top NFL betting sites have Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite over the Browns in Cleveland to start Week 4. Both teams are 2-1, and the winner will have sole ownership of first place in the division after this weekend. 

The Steelers’ moneyline odds of -145 imply a win probability of 59.18%. 

Another AFC North team, the Ravens, are the biggest favorites in Week 4. Baltimore is laying 11.5 points against the visiting Titans on Sunday. Minnesota is another double-digit favorite, laying 11.0 points against the 0-3 Miami Dolphins. 

Read our Lucky Rebel review to learn more about the oddsmakers who provided the NFL betting lines above.

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Week 4 TNF Best Bet: Cleveland Browns (+127)

• Both teams are in the bottom quarter of the league in scoring, averaging 18 or fewer PPG this year.
• Cleveland has won four straight home games against the Steelers.
• The Steelers have one of the oldest rosters in the league, putting them at a greater disadvantage in a short week.

The Browns (2-1) host the Steelers (2-1) with the top spot in the AFC North on the line this week on Thursday Night Football. Cleveland is a +127 underdog, but I think they will upset Pittsburgh to kickoff Week 4. 

Cleveland is a young team, with an average age of 25.5 years, the second-lowest in the NFL. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is tied for the highest average age at 27.1 years. Older players, like 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers, have a tough turnaround for this TNF game. 

Rodgers and the Steelers offense have been plain bad this season. The former four-time MVP has completed just 58.4% of his passes, averaging 6.2 yards per attempt. For comparison, as bad as the Cleveland offense has been, Deshaun Watson has completed 68.3% of his passes for 7.2 YPA. 

Pittsburgh outdueled Cincinnati on Sunday, but the short turnaround will put too much stress on their struggling offense. Cleveland is the better bet to win this week and improve to 3-1. 

Week 4 NFL Picks 

Here are my top NFL Week 4 betting predictions. 

Best Week 4 NFL ML Picks (Straight Up)

• Arizona Cardinals (-120)
• Kansas City Chiefs (-220)
• Los Angeles Rams (-160)

Arizona (1-2) has lost back-to-back games, but the Cardinals are listed at -120 odds to get back in the win column this week. Jacoby Brissett and company head to MetLife to take on the Giants, who are coming off a 12-7 win over Tennessee. A Jameis Winston-led Giants offense cannot keep up with a Cardinals offense averaging 21.0 PPG, and Arizona will win. 

Another favorite I like this weekend is Kansas City (3-0), which is a -220 favorite against the Raiders (3-0) in Las Vegas. RB Kenneth Walker III has unlocked a new dimension in KC’s offense, and he is averaging a league-high 120 rushing YPG. KW3 should have another huge day against a Raiders’ defense allowing over 115 YPG on the ground and lead the Chiefs to another win. 

The LA Rams (1-2) are -160 favorites over the Eagles (2-1) in Philadelphia this weekend. Philly has averaged just 18.3 PPG and 302.3 total YPG. The Eagles will lose for the second time in as many weeks if their offensive issues are not fixed by Sunday. 

Week 4 NFL Picks ATS

• Tennessee Titans +11.5 (-110)
• Miami Dolphins +11.0 (-110)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 (-108)

Tennessee is the biggest underdog of Week 4, with the Titans getting 11.5 points against the Ravens in Baltimore. The Ravens have a history of struggling to cover double-digit spreads and, since 2019, have blown 15 double-digit leads. Baltimore’s late-game struggles will allow the Titans to backdoor cover the large spread. 

I also like Miami to cover at +11.0 against the Vikings in Minnesota. The Vikings are undefeated and have won by an average of 10 points this year. However, they will struggle to win by 11+ this week thanks to star WR Justin Jefferson’s ankle injury. 

Tampa Bay (0-3) is getting 3.5 points against the visiting Green Bay Packers (1-2). QB Baker Mayfield dislocated his thumb on Sunday, so the Bucs will turn to undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels. Daniels’ scrambling ability will help Tampa Bay exploit the Packers’ poor run defense and cover the 3.5-point spread. 

Best Week 4 NFL Upset Picks

• Washington Commanders (+160)
• Dallas Cowboys (+125)
• Jacksonville Jaguars (+122)

Washington defied the Week 3 odds and upset Seattle 33-31. The Commanders are underdogs again this week against the Colts in London. Backup QB Marcus Mariota helped revitalize the Commanders’ passing attack and can do it again against an Indy defense allowing a league-high 417.3 YPG. 

Dallas (1-2) is a +125 road underdog against Houston (0-3) on Sunday. The Texans defense is a shell of its former self, allowing more total yards (325.3 vs. 277.2), passing yards (238.7 vs. 183.5), and points (25.0 vs. 17.4) per game than it did last season. This version of the Texans’ defense is no match for the high-octane Cowboys offense, which averages 29.3 PPG. 

Jacksonville is a +122 underdog against the Bengals in Cincinnati this weekend. Both teams have been better at home than on the road, which benefits Cincy this weekend. However, the Jaguars can take advantage of the same defensive issues that allowed the Steelers to rack up over 400 yards of offense against the Bengals last week. 

NFL Week 4 Predictions

The Jets enter Week 4 as +162 underdogs against the Bears in Chicago. Case Keenum led the Bears to a win over the Eagles in Week 3, but it is unclear who Chicago will start this week. New York, on the other hand, has been competitive in every game and, assuming RB Breece Hall can play, will present a greater challenge than Philly did on Monday. 

Seattle is listed at -330 to bounce back this week and beat the Chargers (0-3). LAC has one of the worst offenses in the league, averaging just 308.7 total yards and 14.7 points per game. Playing at home will help reinvigorate the Seahawks’ dominant defense and secure the win. 

The Lions are -195 favorites over the Panthers in Carolina on Sunday Night Football. Both teams are in the bottom five in total yards allowed, but the Panthers’ below-average run defense is the key for this matchup. Detroit’s RB Jahmyr Gibbs could have a career day against a Carolina defense allowing a league-high 193.3 rushing YPG. 

Where to Make Your Week 4 NFL Picks

Lucky Rebel is the best sportsbook for wagering on your NFL picks in Week 4. My favorite pick for this weekend is Kansas City (-220) to beat Las Vegas in their AFC West showdown. 

Create a new Lucky Rebel account today to bet on your FL Week 4 picks. New members who claim the sportsbook welcome bonus can get up to $1,250 in extra funds.