On This Page

Expert XFL Betting Strategy Tips and Tricks

We provide expert advice for betting on the XFL. This guide covers all the fundamentals you need to know and features more advanced guidance on the various different ways to bet on the XFL.

Our football betting gurus offer their best XFL betting tips and strategy for wagering on individual games, futures, and even live betting. The strategies and advice found here are based on the unique rules of the XFL, general betting principles, and analysis of the most important information at your disposal.

Basics of XFL Betting

Let’s start with the basics of XFL betting that apply to all strategies you might pick. It’s important to understand that the league has plenty of similarities with other football tournaments such as the NFL or NCAA Division I, but that doesn’t mean you can transition effortlessly.

The XFL comes with plenty of specifics, and you need to adjust your betting strategy to them. Otherwise, you may lose money. We have two pages that can help you get started.

Our general football betting guide provides information on fundamentals of the sport, and many of the fundamentals are applicable to betting on the XFL as well.

The second guide goes through the major rules differences between the XFL, the NFL, and college football. While we cover their impact extensively here too, we won’t go through every single variation here, so you’ll want to check them out on the page below.

XFL vs. NFL and College Football

Now that you have the groundwork for football betting in general, it’s time to start with the basics of XFL betting.

Bet for Value

The first thing you need to understand is that trying to guess what will happen is a losing approach. You need to evaluate the probabilities and then place your XFL wagers based on those.

Each price can be converted into an implied probability percentage using our odds converter. Once you know the value, you can compare it to your estimates for the given outcome. If you believe that the true probability is higher than the implied probability of the price, you should go ahead and bet.

That’s called value betting, and you can learn more about the concept on the page below.

Bet Online and Find the Best Sites

Betting on the XFL online provides you with various benefits, such as higher odds, more betting markets, more bonuses, and the option to pick from a ton of internet bookmakers.

You should place your wagers on the internet, and you should find the best XFL betting sites. The page below will save you time and energy, so feel free to check out our recommended options.

Bankroll Management

Even the most successful gamblers are not perfect. You will inevitably lose some of your bets, and the only way to absorb those losses and keep betting is to apply proper bankroll management. Wager only a chunk of your capital and pick the stakes that fit your strategy the best.

The higher the expected value of your XFL bet and the probability of success are, the larger your stake should be.

The page below will help you with more advice on the topic.

Learn the XFL Format and Rules

The rules and the format of the XFL are different than both the NFL and college football. Before you start betting on the NFL, you should take some time to understand how the league works.

The following page can help you with that.

Get to Know the XFL Teams

If you want to make money by betting on the XFL, you have to know the teams. Learn the basic information about them and their roster so that you’re not betting blindly.

You can find key facts about the XFL teams here.

Take Full Advantage of Bonuses and Promotions

The best XFL betting sites online have various bonuses and promotions that can be used on the league. Extracting the maximum value from them is crucial to your long-term results.

You can boost your bankroll instantly through the first-deposit bonuses available and keep earning more after that.

Shop for the Best Lines and Odds

We strongly recommend you use the services of more than one XFL bookmaker. That will open the door to more promotions and the opportunity to shop for the best lines and odds.

You will consistently get several percentages more on your winning wagers, and that extra profit accumulates over time. Line shopping could be the difference between success and failure to make money when betting.

XFL Betting Tips for Individual Games

We just laid the groundwork, so it’s time to build on it with the different XFL betting strategies. Most of the action will be on the individual games from the league, so that’s where we’ll start.

The tips we provide here are mostly useful for traditional XFL betting markets such as moneyline, spreads, and totals.

More Points and Advantage to the Offense

One of the first things you need to learn about the XFL is that the league’s rules are designed to favor the offense more than the NFL’s rules do. Things like the double-forward pass and the different plays after a touchdown are good examples of tools that help the teams score more points.

You should expect higher totals than the NFL and college games. Don’t be fooled by the high lines offered by the bookmakers for the total markets, as they are justified.

Try to adjust your expectations by backing teams with a stronger offense more often. They will be harder to stop under such favorable rule conditions.

More Chances for a Comeback

The next important factor you need to take into account is the higher chance for comebacks. The XFL’s rules make it almost impossible to run the clock and allow teams to score more points in the dying moments of each half.

That opens the door to more late changes in the score, so a lot of close games might go upside down right at the end.

The league will be more volatile than the NFL, and that means two things. The first one is that you should be careful with your staking plan.

The second is that there should be more sleepers. If the underdog can keep it close, one play at the end could be enough for a surprise. Keep that in mind when betting on XFL games.

Reduced In-Play Impact of the Coaches

The XFL is trying to reduce the length of each game, and one of the methods of the league is the lower number of timeouts for each team. The main result from that is that the coaches will have less impact on the games once they start.

Under such circumstances, coaching staffs that are good at preparing the perfect strategy before the beginning of each clash have an advantage over those who are known for their great reactions during the games.

More Players of Unknown Quality – More Room for Surprises

We already explained how the XFL rules could lead to more surprises, but there’s another factor that points in the same direction. The league will be full of players with unknown quality. There will be a mix of youngsters, NFL rejects, and veterans.

The lack of experience of most of them and the lower overall quality compared to the NFL could lead to less consistent results. The XFL favorites are likely to lose more often in comparison to the country’s most popular league.

XFL Futures Betting Strategy

Some of you will be interested in betting on the Championship or the Conference winners. That’s why we have a separate XFL futures betting strategy section. Here’s what you need to consider before placing your wagers.

Coaches Are Crucial

The coaching staff in each sport and league is vital, and the XFL is not an exception. In fact, the overall impact of the coaches should be higher than the NFL because there will be fewer superstars on the field that can carry a team almost alone.

The talent level of the rosters should be closer, and therefore, building the right fundamentals, installing discipline, and picking the right strategy will be more important than the individual quality of the players at their disposal.

Examine Each Roster Closely

Once you know what the coaches are capable of, it’s time to move on to the rosters. The quality and the depth of each team will be the key to success.

Look into whether there are enough players in each position, because a single injury could put an end to the season of teams that lack numbers in key areas.

Pay Special Attention to the Quarterbacks

During your analysis of each roster, you should pay special attention to the quarterbacks. They are the most impactful players on the field, even more so than the NFL.

Don’t forget that the XFL rules favor the offense, and they also reduce the tools of each coach to influence the games when the action starts.

As a result, on-field leadership is paramount. The experience and decision-making of each quarterback is at least as important as his raw talent.

Evaluate How Strong Each Conference Is

Each XFL conference features four teams, and the best two of them earn a place in the playoffs. Naturally, the competition within the conference matters a lot when betting on the XFL winner market.

If there are four strong teams in the West, for example, reaching the deciding games will be tough. Even if a team qualifies for the playoffs, they will have to engage in two more challenging encounters for the conference title.

At the same time, a strong team that plays in a weak conference will have a much easier path to the final and a higher chance of lifting the trophy at the end of the season.

XFL Live Betting Strategy

Finally, we have our XFL live betting strategy guide designed to help those of you who prefer to place your wagers during the games.

There are several fundamental rules that you need to follow in every form of live betting, so let’s get them out of the way quickly.

  • Watch the games

Some people bet solely based on live stats and commentary, which is a huge mistake that leaves you out of the loop. Watch the XFL games if you are going to bet on them

  • Check the stats

The eye test should be combined with the latest stats. The raw numbers sometimes show trends that you might have missed

  • Control your emotions

It’s easy to make mistakes during live betting, as you will often miss out on good prices because of timing or lose wagers quickly. Keep a cool head and make logical decisions, or you will lose a lot fast

The specific XFL league rules are important for your live betting strategy too, and here is why.

Faster Pace

One of the most important goals of the XFL is to make the games faster. The pauses between the plays will be reduced, as well as the halftime break and other moments where the action usually slows during NFL games. That means you will have less time to place your wagers, and timing is crucial in live betting.

Be prepared to act fast, or you’ll risk missing out on good betting opportunities.

More Points Toward the End of the Games

We already explained how the XFL has rules in place that allow more points at the end of each game. Use that to your advantage and look to get high prices on late comebacks or overs live.

There will be more of those in the XFL than in the NFL, so that opens the door to making some money in the last five minutes of each game. You will likely see many points, so make sure to adjust your strategy accordingly.

Momentum Will Be Harder to Stop

The NFL coaches often use their timeouts to break the momentum of the opposing team. The pause in the game and the extra instructions often do the trick. This is harder to achieve in the XFL because the number of timeouts is lower, and the breaks between the plays are shorter.

When a team is suddenly pressuring the opponent and has the advantage, it will most likely result in more points than in the NFL.

Closer Overtime

The current overtime rules of the NFL are a joke. There’s too much luck involved. The XFL is trying to fix that by adding a shootout similar to soccer and hockey. The ties are resolved in a more just matter, and the games that reach overtime will be closer.

If you are betting on the XFL live, you should know that the chance of a surprise based on sheer luck in the additional minutes is lower compared to the NFL, and the favorite will have a bigger advantage to close the game.

Summary

As you can see, there are plenty of specifics that you need to apply to your XFL betting strategy. The league features some unique rules that change multiple aspects of your usual football betting strategy. Don’t feel overwhelmed by your lack of experience with the XFL. Remember that the betting sites are in a similar position.

They don’t have enough data and knowledge about the competition, so that opens the door to many profitable opportunities.

If you’re looking for a simpler approach to making winning XFL wagers, check out the following page. It’s where our football experts provide their picks and recommended bets on a regular basis.

September Sportsbook of the Month
4.5
Welcome Bonus 50% up to $1,000
Back to top