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UK2025 NFL MVP Odds & Predictions
The top of the NFL MVP odds boards features the league’s top quarterbacks. Any position can win the award, but QBs have dominated MVP voting for over a decade. The best sites to bet on the NFL have odds on hundreds of players, including every starting quarterback.
I analyze the top quarterbacks in this year’s MVP race below, including the favorites and the top sleepers for the 2025 season. Also, I will tell you my prediction for the 2025 regular-season NFL MVP.
Odds to Win the 2025 NFL MVP Award
Here are the latest NFL MVP odds, courtesy of Bovada Sportsbook.
| Player | 2025 MVP Odds |
|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | +500 |
| Josh Allen | +600 |
| Joe Burrow | +600 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +650 |
| Jayden Daniels | +1000 |
Two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson is the 5-1 favorite to win the award again this year. Jackson and the Ravens are also among the top Super Bowl contenders this season.
Reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen is a close second at +600. Bengals star QB Joe Burrow is tied with Allen for the second-best odds.
Patrick Mahomes and Jayden Daniels round out the top five at +650 and +1000, respectively.
Learn more about this sportsbook with our honest Bovada review.
Why Is Lamar Jackson the 2025 NFL MVP Favorite?
Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson is the +500 favorite in the latest odds to win MVP this season. Jackson had a brilliant season last year, earning All-Pro QB honors for the third time in his career.
However, the voters broke with tradition and did not award the MVP to the First-Team All-Pro QB. It was the first time since 2003 that a QB won the MVP without also being named to the First-Team All-Pro roster.
Jackson had better stats than Josh Allen, the MVP, and even outplayed his own statistics from his previous MVP seasons in 2023 and 2019.
| Statistic | Jackson ‘24 | Allen ‘24 | Jackson ‘23 | Jackson ‘19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record as starter | 12-5 | 13-4 | 13-3 | 13-2 |
| Passing yards | 4,172 yards | 3,731 yards | 3,678 yards | 3,127 yards |
| Passing TDs | 41 | 28 | 24 | 36 |
| Completion % | 66.7% | 63.5% | 67.2% | 66.1% |
| Rushing yards | 915 yards | 531 yards | 821 yards | 1,206 yards |
| Rushing TDs | 4 | 12 | 5 | 7 |
Jackson also had a better team around him than Allen did. Including Jackson, Baltimore had nine players selected to the Pro Bowl, the most in the NFL, and seven others were alternates. Six players, including Jackson, were named to an All-Pro team.
Baltimore has brought back most of its starters. The Ravens also upgraded their defense, bringing in two-time All-Pro DB Jaire Alexander.
Jackson is favored to have a big game against Buffalo in the current NFL Week 1 player props. Starting the season with a major win would certainly help his MVP case. Should Jackson improve on his season from last year, he will likely be the MVP, and Baltimore can compete for the number one seed.
Can Josh Allen Win Back-To-Back MVPs?
Allen won his first MVP award last season, racking up 40 total TDs and leading Buffalo to a 13-4 record and its fifth consecutive AFC East division title win.
Unlike other MVP contenders last season, Allen had very little help on offense. He was one of four Bills players to make the Pro Bowl roster. Allen, who was named to the second-team, was the only Buffalo player to be selected as an All-Pro.
One of the reasons Allen won MVP over Jackson is that he led Buffalo to a win over Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Jackson and company lost the season opener in KC after Isaiah Likely failed to get his feet in bounds on the game-tying TD.
Allen, on the other hand, scored the game-sealing TD that ended the Chiefs’ hopes of having an undefeated season.
The challenge for Allen will be winning the MVP in back-to-back years. Traditionally, players coming off an MVP season have much higher expectations than their competitors.
On the bright side, Allen can get a head start on his MVP defense with a win over Jackson in the 2025 season opener. Allen and the Bills are slight favorites in the latest NFL Week 1 odds. Beating Lamar and the Ravens in the season opener will solidify Allen as the early MVP favorite to beat.
Is Jayden Daniels the Top NFL MVP Sleeper Pick?
Reigning Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels is a popular sleeper pick for MVP in 2025. In his debut season, Daniels racked up the following stats:
- Record as starter: 12-5
- Passing yards: 3,568 yards
- Passing TDs: 25
- Completion %: 69.0%
- Rushing yards: 891 yards
- Rushing TDs: 6
The former LSU star finished seventh in MVP voting last season.
Daniels led Washington to the NFC Championship Game in his rookie season. The Commanders have an old but strong roster that should make the playoffs again this season.
If he builds on his stats from last season and leads Washington to a division win, Daniels will find himself in the MVP conversation once again. The Commanders would also emerge as a Super Bowl contender.
Other 2025 NFL MVP Sleepers
Green Bay traded for star pass rusher Micah Parsons, moving the Packers one step closer to being a Super Bowl contender. If Jordan Love (+1800) can climb his way into the top-five quarterback conversations, Green Bay could win it all this season.
Love will be without Christian Watson, who is out for the year with a torn ACL. However, he will have rookie Matthew Golden to throw to, the first wide receiver Green Bay has drafted in the first round since 2002.
Dak Prescott (+4000) is another sleeper to consider in this year’s MVP betting markets. He finished second in MVP voting in 2023 and has a new weapon in WR George Pickens. Also, with Parsons out of town, Prescott and the offense will have to step up their game for Dallas to make the playoffs
Tips for Betting on the NFL MVP Winner
Here are a few tips to help you pick which stars to bet on in this NFL futures bet.
Place Bets Early in the Season
Betting on a futures wager early in the season is the best way to secure the most value for your money.
For instance, when he closed the regular season as the favorite, Lamar was listed at -350. Now, to start the 2025 season, he is still the favorite but is available at +600 odds.
Also, since the odds offer better payouts, you can bet smaller amounts and pick up multiple MVP futures tickets for the same price. The more tickets you have, the better your chance of winning your MVP future.
Bet on a Quarterback to Win MVP
Many players, particularly running backs and wide receivers, have broken records in their attempts to win the MVP award. Cooper Kupp and Ja’Marr Chase won the receiving Triple Crown in 2021 and 2024, respectively. Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley have all had 2,000+ yards from scrimmage in recent years.
However, despite their best efforts, the MVP has been a quarterback every year since 2013.
Simply put, the AP voters who decide the MVP favor quarterbacks. So, bettors should follow their lead and bet on a QB with the NFL MVP futures tickets.
Look for Players Who Exceed Expectations
“Value” can be subjective but helping your team exceed expectations despite having a poor cast of players around you is a good way to prove you are the Most Valuable Player in the NFL.
The lack of Pro Bowlers and All-Pros on Buffalo’s roster last year is a major reason why Allen took home the MVP over Lamar. Identifying players who can elevate the talent around them is a good way to win your MVP futures bets.
Consider Recent Playoff Success
The regular season MVP is supposed to reflect the results of the regular season. However, MVP voters tend to hold playoff success, or lack thereof, against contenders.
This puts added pressure on players like Lamar Jackson, who is just 3-5 in the postseason. He already has two MVPs, but giving Jackson a third when he has fallen short in the biggest games of his career is a tough ask.
Betting on Who Will Win the 2025 NFL MVP
- Lamar Jackson (+500) – Bet Now!
The 2025 NFL MVP race is heating up, with Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, and Jayden Daniels leading the odds boards. Quarterbacks continue to dominate MVP voting, making them the safest futures bets. Jackson enters as the +500 favorite, while reigning MVP Josh Allen is close behind at +600.
Or, bettors looking for value can also consider Daniels as a sleeper pick. If you’re looking for some of the best sites to bet on the NFL, you can find top-tier odds at sites like Bovada.
