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UK2025 NFL MVP Odds & Predictions
The top of the NFL MVP odds boards features the league’s top quarterbacks. Any position can win the award, but QBs have dominated MVP voting for over a decade. The best sites to bet on the NFL have odds on hundreds of players, including every starting quarterback.
I analyze the top quarterbacks in this year’s MVP race below, including the favorites and the top sleepers for the 2025 season. Also, I will tell you my prediction for the 2025 regular-season NFL MVP.
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Odds to Win the 2025 NFL MVP Award
Here are the latest NFL MVP odds through six weeks, courtesy of Lucky Rebel Sportsbook.
| Player | 2025 NFL MVP Odds |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +195 |
| Josh Allen | +210 |
| Lamar Jackson | +325 |
| Baker Mayfield | +325 |
| Drake Maye | +1100 |
Despite a slow start to the season, Kansas City has battled back to 3-3, and Patrick Mahomes has ascended to the MVP after six weeks. Mahomes is listed at +195 to win his third career MVP award.
Josh Allen, the reigning MVP, was the favorite before Buffalo’s two-game losing streak. Following the Bills’ loss to Atlanta in Week 6, Allen has faded to +210. Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield are tied for the third-best odds at +325 each.
Second-year quarterback Drake Maye is a distant fifth at +1100 odds.
Read our Lucky Rebel review to find out more about this highly-rated betting site.
Why Is Mahomes the MVP Frontrunner?
One of the more surprising names still at the top of MVP betting boards is Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The two-time MVP has had pedestrian numbers to start the season. On the bright side, he led the Chiefs to win over the Lions on SNF in Week 6, improving KC’s record to 3-3.
Kansas City is lucky to be at .500 through the first six games. The history of MVP voting suggests the Chiefs must win their division and earn a top seed in the AFC for Mahomes to have a chance at winning MVP.
Through six weeks, the Chiefs are third in the AFC West, trailing the Broncos (4-2) and the Chargers (4-2). Despite that, Mahomes has moved into pole position for the MVP this season at +195 odds.
In addition to his infamous Mahomes Magic in the passing game, the three-time Super Bowl winner leads the Chiefs in rushing yards (222) and rushing TDs (4) this season.
If Mahomes and company can keep the ball rolling on offense, they will catch the Chargers and Broncos in no time. A 10th consecutive division title and a high seed in the AFC could be Mahomes’ ticket to another MVP.
Can Josh Allen Win Back-to-Back MVPs?
Josh Allen assumed the pole position in this year’s MVP race after the Bills’ 4-0 start. However, after back-to-back prime time losses, Allen’s MVP odds have faded from +175 to +210, and he has dropped to second on the odds boards.
Allen has been a vital part of the Bills’ offense once again. He is contributing as a passer and a runner, racking up the following stats through games this season:
- 232.8 passing YPG
- 68.5% completion percentage
- 11 passing TDs
- 254 rushing yards
- 3 rushing TDs
His numbers are not as impressive as those of other MVP candidates, but that did not stop Allen from winning the award last year. Additionally, unlike other top favorites, the lack of playmakers around Allen makes his impact even more undeniable.
To win MVP again this season, Allen must get the Bills’ offense back on track. After averaging 33.25 PPG in their first four games, the Bills failed to score over 20 points in their two-game skid. The good news is Buffalo has a bye in Week 7 to reset and get healthy for the second part of the season.
Is Baker Mayfield the Top NFL MVP Sleeper Pick?
Baker Mayfield is tied with Lamar Jackson for the third-best odds at +325. However, with Jackson’s health in doubt and the Ravens’ season hanging on by a thread at 1-5, Mayfield could pass the two-time MVP soon.
Baker led game-winning drives in the Buccaneers’ first three games. They lost to the Eagles, but Baker has returned to his winning ways over the last two weeks. At 5-1, the Bucs have a chance to run away with the NFC South and secure a top seed in the conference.
Here is where Baker ranks this season compared to other quarterbacks:
- 1,539 passing yards (4th most)
- 12 passing TDs (T-3rd most)
- 7.9 YPA (8th most)
- 71.1 QBR (8th highest)
- 108.5 passer rating (6th highest)
To make his season even more impressive, Mayfield has had to find ways to win without his top weapons on offense. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Bucky Irving have all missed time with injury this season. Breakout rookie Emeka Egbuka was also injured in the team’s Week 6 win and could be sidelined.
Racking up wins and impressive stats despite the injuries around him could be the path to Mayfield’s first NFL MVP award.
More 2025 NFL MVP Sleepers to Watch
Two other dark horses to watch in this year’s MVP race are Drake Maye (+1100) and Daniel Jones (+2200).
Maye was listed at +1800 after beating the Bills in Buffalo. His odds shortened to +1100 after New England’s win over the Saints in Week 6 helped them secure the top spot in the AFC West. If Maye continues improving throughout the season and the Pats upset the Bills for the division crown, the second-year QB could make a case for the MVP.
Another AFC QB to watch is Daniel Jones, who has led the Colts to a 5-1 start this season. Jones is currently available at +2200 to win MVP, down from his +3000 odds a week ago. He will receive MVP votes if Jones continues playing well and helps the Colts win the AFC South and earn the number-one seed in the conference.
Tips for Betting on the NFL MVP Winner
Here are a few tips to help you pick which stars to bet on in this NFL futures bet.
Place Bets Early in the Season
Betting on a futures wager early in the season is the best way to secure the most value for your money.
For instance, when he closed the regular season as the favorite, Lamar was listed at -350. Now, to start the 2025 season, he is still the favorite but is available at +600 odds.
Also, since the odds offer better payouts, you can bet smaller amounts and pick up multiple MVP futures tickets for the same price. The more tickets you have, the better your chance of winning your MVP future.
Bet on a Quarterback to Win MVP
Many players, particularly running backs and wide receivers, have broken records in their attempts to win the MVP award. Cooper Kupp and Ja’Marr Chase won the receiving Triple Crown in 2021 and 2024, respectively. Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley have all had 2,000+ yards from scrimmage in recent years.
However, despite their best efforts, the MVP has been a quarterback every year since 2013.
Simply put, the AP voters who decide the MVP favor quarterbacks. So, bettors should follow their lead and bet on a QB with the NFL MVP futures tickets.
Look for Players Who Exceed Expectations
“Value” can be subjective but helping your team exceed expectations despite having a poor cast of players around you is a good way to prove you are the Most Valuable Player in the NFL.
The lack of Pro Bowlers and All-Pros on Buffalo’s roster last year is a major reason why Allen took home the MVP over Lamar. Identifying players who can elevate the talent around them is a good way to win your MVP futures bets.
Consider Recent Playoff Success
The regular season MVP is supposed to reflect the results of the regular season. However, MVP voters tend to hold playoff success, or lack thereof, against contenders.
This puts added pressure on players like Lamar Jackson, who is just 3-5 in the postseason. He already has two MVPs, but giving Jackson a third when he has fallen short in the biggest games of his career is a tough ask.
Betting on Who Will Win the 2025 NFL MVP
- Baker Mayfield (+325) – Bet now!
The 2025 NFL MVP race is heating up, with Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, and Jayden Daniels leading the odds boards. Quarterbacks continue to dominate MVP voting, making them the safest futures bets. Jackson enters as the +500 favorite, while reigning MVP Josh Allen is close behind at +600.
Or, bettors looking for value can also consider Daniels as a sleeper pick. If you’re looking for some of the best sites to bet on the NFL, you can find top-tier odds at sites like Bovada.
