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UKLatest NFL MVP Odds & Predictions (2025)
The top of the NFL MVP odds boards features the league’s top quarterbacks. Any position can win the award, but QBs have dominated MVP voting for over a decade. The best sites to bet on the NFL have odds on hundreds of players, including every starting quarterback.
I analyze the top quarterbacks in this year’s MVP race below, including the favorites and the top sleepers for the 2025 season. Also, I will tell you my prediction for the 2025 regular-season NFL MVP.
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Odds to Win the 2025 NFL MVP Award
Here are the latest 2025 NFL MVP odds, courtesy of Lucky Rebel.
| Player | 2025 NFL MVP Odds |
|---|---|
| Drake Maye | -350 |
| Matthew Stafford | +225 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +20000 |
| Josh Allen | +25000 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +50000 |
Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford have battled it out all season for MVP honors. A rough December from Stafford has caused him to fall out of the top spot in the latest MVP odds boards.
Maye is now the betting favorite at -350, with Stafford firmly in second at +225. Both quarterbacks will have one last chance to gain an edge in the MVP race in Week 18.
Trevor Lawrence, Josh Allen, and Christian McCaffrey are also available in the updated MVP markets at top NFL betting sites. However, all three are listed at 200-1 or longer odds, making them unlikely MVP winners to say the least.
Lucky Rebel is the best place to bet on NFL futures, including end-of-season awards like the MVP. Read this free Lucky Rebel review to learn more about why this site is the best place to bet on the MVP this year.
Why Is Drake Maye the MVP Frontrunner?
Drake Maye’s second season in the NFL has reignited Super Bowl hopes in New England. Maye has led the Patriots to a 13-3 record, an AFC East title, and potentially the number one seed.
On paper, Maye has all the marks of an NFL MVP, including being a division winner and securing a top seed in the conference.
Maye has the stats to back up his MVP campaign, too, such as:
- 4,203 passing yards – 4th most
- 30 passing TDs – T-3rd most
- 8 interceptions
- 4 rushing TDs
The biggest arguments against Maye’s MVP campaign are recency bias and strength of schedule. Maye was second in MVP odds for most of the season as Matthew Stafford outplayed him for the first three months of the year.
Maye also had a much easier schedule than Stafford and other MVP contenders. New England had one of the easiest schedules of any team this season, which could hurt Maye’s MVP case.
Can Matthew Stafford Win His 1st MVP?
Matthew Stafford was the MVP frontrunner for most of the season. However, Stafford’s struggles in December knocked him out of first place in the MVP betting odds.
Here is a look at Stafford’s stats in the first 12 weeks versus the last four games.
| Category | Weeks 1-12 | Weeks 13-16 |
|---|---|---|
| Passing YPG | 256.08 | 343.75 |
| Passing TDs | 32 | 10 |
| Interceptions | 4 | 4 |
| Completion % | 66.33% | 62.18% |
| Record | 9-3 | 2-2 |
Stafford threw for a lot of yards in December, but his four interceptions matched his total from the first 12 weeks of the season. His completion percentage also dropped, and the Rams’ .500 record in December cost them a chance at the NFC West title and the conference’s number one seed.
On the other hand, Stafford set a record this season with 28 consecutive passing TDs without an interception. Also, for a season-long award, his MVP pace in the first three months of the season could overcome his recent struggles.
Stafford also leads the NFL in passing TDs with 42 and is second in passing yards with 4,448. His 22 sacks this season are also less than half of Mayes’ (47), and Stafford played a much more challenging schedule.
Why Is Trevor Lawrence the Top MVP Sleeper?
After the top two, the 2025 MVP odds fade dramatically. Trevor Lawrence has the third-best odds at +20000.
Lawrence has played great down the stretch, and his performance of the last month and a half of this season stacks up against anyone. Since Week 11, Lawrence has:
- 250.6 passing YPG
- 16 passing TDs
- 4 rushing TDs
- 25.14 rushing YPG
- 7-0 record
There is no denying that Lawrence has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league in the second half of the season. He also has a chance to clinch the AFC South title this weekend with a win over Tennessee.
Unfortunately for Lawrence, his second-half push for MVP may be too little, too late. Even complete collapses from Maye and Stafford in Week 18 would not be enough to push Lawrence to the top of MVP ballots this year.
More 2025 NFL MVP Sleepers to Watch
Only two other players, Josh Allen (+25000) and Christian McCaffrey (+50000), are available in the latest MVP betting odds.
Allen, the reigning MVP, has struggled to repeat his success from last season. Buffalo will be in the playoffs, but its time as the unquestioned best team in the AFC East is over. With the MVP favorite in his division, it is unlikely that Allen can repeat as the winner.
McCaffrey has the best odds of any non-quarterback at +50000. He is unlikely to win the MVP, but CMC can make history as the first player to have 1,000 rushing and 1,000 receiving yards in the same season, twice.
Tips for Betting on the NFL MVP Winner
Here are a few tips to help you pick which stars to bet on in this NFL futures bet.
Place Bets Early in the Season
Betting on a futures wager early in the season is the best way to secure the most value for your money.
For instance, when he closed the regular season as the favorite, Lamar was listed at -350. Now, to start the 2025 season, he is still the favorite but is available at +600 odds.
Also, since the odds offer better payouts, you can bet smaller amounts and pick up multiple MVP futures tickets for the same price. The more tickets you have, the better your chance of winning your MVP future.
Bet on a Quarterback to Win MVP
Many players, particularly running backs and wide receivers, have broken records in their attempts to win the MVP award. Cooper Kupp and Ja’Marr Chase won the receiving Triple Crown in 2021 and 2024, respectively. Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley have all had 2,000+ yards from scrimmage in recent years.
However, despite their best efforts, the MVP has been a quarterback every year since 2013.
Simply put, the AP voters who decide the MVP favor quarterbacks. So, bettors should follow their lead and bet on a QB with the NFL MVP futures tickets.
Look for Players Who Exceed Expectations
“Value” can be subjective but helping your team exceed expectations despite having a poor cast of players around you is a good way to prove you are the Most Valuable Player in the NFL.
The lack of Pro Bowlers and All-Pros on Buffalo’s roster last year is a major reason why Allen took home the MVP over Lamar. Identifying players who can elevate the talent around them is a good way to win your MVP futures bets.
Consider Recent Playoff Success
The regular season MVP is supposed to reflect the results of the regular season. However, MVP voters tend to hold playoff success, or lack thereof, against contenders.
This puts added pressure on players like Lamar Jackson, who is just 3-5 in the postseason. He already has two MVPs, but giving Jackson a third when he has fallen short in the biggest games of his career is a tough ask.
Betting on Who Will Win the 2025 NFL MVP
- Drake Maye (-350) – Bet now!
Maye is the favorite in the latest 2025 NFL MVP odds, and the Patriots quarterback checks many boxes that voters typically look for. With that in mind, I think the second-year breakout QB will win the MVP this season.
You can bet on your NFL MVP picks today at Lucky Rebel. It offers odds on all the top contenders, and new members can claim a 125% welcome bonus worth up to $1,250 in extra funds with their first deposit.
