NFL Picks for Week 11 (2025)

With only two teams on a bye this weekend, there are 15 games to choose from for your NFL picks in Week 11. Adding to the excitement, nine of the 15 games this week are divisional matchups. 

Keep reading to see the updated odds for every Week 11 game. I analyze the latest odds and break down my NFL predictions for this week’s best games. 

Latest Week 11 NFL Odds

Lucky Rebel supplied the following odds for our Week 11 NFL picks. 

New England opens the week against the Jets on Thursday Night Football. The Patriots are the biggest favorites of Week 11 at -11.5. Both teams bring winning streaks into this AFC East clash in prime time. 

There are eight other divisional matchups this week, including Baltimore taking on the Browns in Cleveland and the Texans facing the Titans in Tennessee. Baltimore and Houston join New England as the only teams laying a touchdown or more this weekend against divisional opponents. 

There are two teams on a bye this week. The Colts, coming off a major win in Berlin, and the Saints, who took down the Panthers last week, are both off in Week 11. 

You can shop updated odds for and bet on your NFL picks for Week 11 at Lucky Rebel. Read this free and in-depth review of Lucky Rebel to learn more about the sportsbook that provided the odds for our NFL picks this week.

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Week 11 TNF Best Bet: New York Jets +11.5 (-110)

• The Jets have won back-to-back games
• 5 of the Patriots’ wins have come by one score
• 5 of the seven divisional games on Thursdays have been decided by one score

The TNF schedule this year has been hit-or-miss, as teams have struggled to perform on short rest. Last week’s 10-7 showdown between the Broncos and the Raiders was especially hard to watch. 

This week’s TNF matchup pits two more divisional opponents against each other as the Patriots (8-2) host the Jets (2-7). The Pats have won seven straight games, while the Jets have won back-to-back contests. 

New England is an 11.5-point favorite, the biggest of the weekend. However, both of their losses this season have come at home. Also, after playing in Tampa Bay last week, the Pats could be heavily impacted by the lack of rest on a short week. 

The Patriots have earned five of their eight wins by one score or less, including a one-point win two weeks ago against Atlanta. Also, of the seven divisional matchups played on Thursdays this year, five have been decided by a single score or less. 

The Jets have momentum after earning back-to-back wins and should keep this divisional game within 11.5 points.

Week 11 NFL Picks 

The top NFL betting sites have competitive odds for every matchup this week. Here are my NFL predictions for Week 11. 

Best Week 11 NFL ML Picks (Straight Up)

• Miami Dolphins (-164) – Bet now!
• Kansas City Chiefs (-204) – Bet now!
• Dallas Cowboys (-190) – Bet now!

Miami’s shocking win over Buffalo as 10.0-point underdogs last week has the Dolphins riding high going into their Week 11 matchup against the Commanders. This is the first-ever regular-season game in Madrid, and Miami is a -164 favorite. The Dolphins are a bad team, but the Commanders are even worse due to their various injuries, and Miami will pick up its fourth win of the season this week. 

Kansas City has a bye to recover from its loss to Buffalo and prepare for a tough AFC West matchup against Denver. The Broncos have won seven straight games, but their offensive struggles have reared their ugly head in recent weeks. KC’s defense will take advantage of the Broncos’ miscues, and without DPOY Patrick Surtain II, Denver will not be able to stop the Chiefs’ offense. 

The Cowboys suffered an embarrassing 27-12 home loss on Monday Night Football before their bye last week. Dallas is back on MNF in Week 11, taking on the Raiders in Las Vegas. The Raiders’ offense manages just 15.4 PPG, the second-fewest in the NFL, and it will be Las Vegas’ downfall again in prime time this week.

Week 11 NFL Picks ATS

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5 (-110) – Bet now!
• San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-110) – Bet now!
• Cleveland Browns +8.0 (-110) – Bet now!

The Buccaneers and the Bills are both desperate to get back in the win column after losing last week. Tampa Bay is a 5.5-point underdog on the road at Highmark Stadium on Sunday. These teams averaged 24+ PPG, and if the Bucs’ offense can survive the cold, they should be able to cover the 5.5 points on Sunday. 

San Francisco’s defense could not hang with the Rams in Week 10, giving up 42 points in the loss. The 49ers’ offense, on the other hand, managed nearly 400 total yards, including over 300 through the air. San Fran will cover the 2.5 points against the Cardinals this weekend. 

Cleveland is getting 8.0 points at home this week against the rival Ravens. As poor as the Browns have been this century, they have split with Baltimore four straight years, including winning three of the last four matchups in Cleveland. I doubt they win, but recent history suggests the Browns are solid bets to cover the 8.0-point spread this week.

Best Week 11 NFL Upset Picks

• Cincinnati Bengals (+200) – Bet now!
• Carolina Panthers (+158) – Bet now!
• Seattle Seahawks (+135) – Bet now!

The Panthers upset the Packers in Week 9, but their offense no-showed in their 17-7 loss to the Saints last week. Carolina is a +158 underdog against the struggling Falcons this week. The Panthers shut out Atlanta 30-0 in their Week 3 matchup, and Carolina’s strong rushing attack will lead them to a sweep of the Falcons on Sunday. 

Seattle and Los Angeles meet for their first of two divisional games, with both teams cooking off 40+ point performances. The Seahawks’ turnover issues are a major reason they are +135 road underdogs this week. If Seattle can cut down on its mistakes, its high-powered offense can go toe-to-toe with LA and secure the upset.

NFL Week 11 Predictions

The Chargers’ offense started slow, but their defense powered them to a 25-10 SNF win last week. Los Angeles is a -168 favorite on the road this week against Jacksonville. The Jaguars’ defense collapsed in their loss last week, and Jacksonville will lose again on Sunday. 

Chicago’s comeback win over the Giants cost Brian Daboll his job. The Bears are +142 underdogs against Minnesota this week. Chicago was the better team for three of the four quarters when these teams met in Week 1, and the Bears will get their revenge this weekend. 

Houston survived last week without C.J. Stroud, taking down the Jags and keeping their season alive. The Texans are -366 favorites this week to complete their season sweep of the Titans. Tennessee had a bye last week, but one extra week to prepare will not fix the Titans’ issues, and they will fall to 1-9.   

Where to Make Your Week 11 NFL Picks

The best place to wager on your NFL picks in Week 11 is Lucky Rebel. It provided up-to-the-minute odds for every matchup, including live odds for each game. 

Lucky Rebel offers a 125% welcome bonus for new members who make qualifying first deposits. You can use these bonus funds to bet on your NFL picks against the spread, moneyline predictions, underdog wagers, and more.