Wright State Raiders vs. IUPUI Jaguars Betting Preview – CBB, January 22, 2021

By Dean McHugh in College Basketball
| January 21, 2021 4:07 pm PDT

The Raiders sit joint top of the Horizon Conference, and a win here could see them take the outright lead. The Jaguars are playing catch up, having only played seven games so far this season due to the current worldwide pandemic. This is the first of two back-to-back games on consecutive days between the two.

Wright State has dominated this fixture in the past, beating the Jaguars on the last five occasions that the two teams have met. The Jaguars have only beaten the Raiders once, which was back in 2018.

Over the seven games that the two teams have met there, Raiders have averaged 11 more points per game, which could be a key stat when we look at the betting shortly.

Here is my Raiders vs. Jaguars betting preview.

Raiders vs. Jaguars Odds

Raiders -11.5-110
Jaguars +11.5-110
Raiders To Win-900
Jaguars To Win+610
Over 147.5 Points-110
Under 147.5 Points-110

It’s clear to see that the bookmakers have set the spread based on the average scores posted by each team when they have played against each other in the past. This means it will be harder to call a spread winner, and perhaps the value will be in the points total. However, in saying that, the Raiders have won by an average of 16 points over the last five meetings between them.

Raiders News

The Raiders sit at the top of the Horizon Conference, having won nine of their 13 games to date. However, they are going through a sticky patch right now, having lost three of their last five games. They recently lost to their main Championship rivals, Cleveland State, going down by two points. However, they exacted revenge the following night by thrashing them 85-49 and returning to the top of the standings.

They have also been the top team in the Horizon Conference on the road, winning four of their five games this season. However, their last road trip was an 81-71 defeat to Oakland. With Oakland occupying 11th place, that defeat will be a concern to the Raiders.

Here are the latest betting trends for Wright State:

Bet Type Trend
Total Five of their last six games have gone under the betting total.
ATS They have only lost one of the last five games against the Jaguars.
SU Wright State has won 14 of their last 18 games played.
ATS The Raiders love playing on a Friday, having lost only six of the last 20.

The Raiders have a great offense this year, which is averaging just under 80 points per game. This is mostly down to their incredible rebounding skills, as they have the country’s third-best record. Their points average rises to 84 per game on the road, which is the ninth-highest average this season.

Because of this average, they have won plenty of games by a large margin. This has resulted in most of their opponents getting frustrated and seeing their discipline decline throughout the game. The Raiders are certainly punishing them from the free-throw line. Their average points difference per game stands at 14 points per game, which would see them cover the spread comfortably if they repeat that against the Jaguars. This becomes clearer when you see that they are currently making just under 48% of their shots, which is very impressive.

They work the ball well around the court resulting in them having the highest assists average in the Conference, making over 15 per game.

Their defense hasn’t been quite as good, but it is still better than most other teams, particularly in their own Conference. They play a high tempo, pressing game and don’t allow their opponents much time or space on the ball. Much like their offense, their defense has also been better on the road. Despite their high tempo game, they keep their shape and discipline well throughout. This has resulted in them restricting their opponents to a 37% field goal success rate, the eighth-best in the country.

Senior Loudon Love has been the primary catalyst behind many of their victories this season as he has the team-high for rebounds and blocks while also posting a team season-high 26 points.

The Raiders have no injury worries heading into this game.

Jaguars News

The Jaguars have only played seven games so far this season, which is the lowest in the Horizon Conference. At home, they have only played three games to date, winning just one of them.

However, after losing four games back to back, they have gone on to win their last two in a row, which they are hoping will kick start their stop, start season. Both wins were narrow victories over Northern Kentucky as they won by five and then two in their most recent game. Their only win at home came against Tennessee State, which is nothing to write home about, given they have only won two games all season.

Here are the latest betting trends for IUPUI:

Bet Type Trend
Total Five of their last seven games have gone under the betting total.
Total This is the same record in the last seven games played against the Raiders.
Total The total has gone over in 10 of their last 15 games against teams from the Horizon Conference.
Total In January, only two of their last seven games have gone over the points total.
ATS They have a 4-2 record in their last six games played on a Friday. This improves to 5-2 if you solely look at their home games.

The Jaguars have a poor offense this season, and apart from their slightly below average three-point shooting, it is tough to find any stats that aren’t quite frankly terrible. They are scoring at just 40% right now, which means winning any game is a struggle, let alone against a good team like the Raiders. Just holding on to the ball has been a struggle this season as they have averaged 15 turnovers per game.

They are the worst team in the Horizon Conference from the free-throw line, so it pays to play aggressively against them.

However, the good news is they do have a good defense, which also presses high, but unlike the Raider’s defense, they can sometimes get caught out of position. Their defense has been even better at home, which is another positive for them.

They are averaging right steals per game, which is the second-highest in the Conference.

They have a points difference per game of minus five, which is predominantly down to their poor offense. Also, worryingly, they have been poor on the boards averaging just 28 rebounds per game. Coming up against one of the best rebounding teams around will be extremely challenging.

They are too heavily reliant on their captain Marcus Burk. While Burk has been excellent this season, he desperately needs help from his teammates. Burk, Minnett, and Goss have accounted for 62% of the Jaguar’s points over the last five games, highlighting the fact that they need more of a team effort.

The Jaguars also have a clean bill of health for this game.

Raiders vs. Jaguars Pick

Pick
  • Raiders -11.5
    -110

This is one of the more straight forward picks you will come across. The Raiders are an excellent team, and they should win this game at a canter, excluding complacency. They have a superior record over the Jaguars, and they also have some big margin wins. When you think they beat the second-placed Cleveland State by 36 points last time out, they should have no problem covering the spread here.

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