Sleeper Picks for the 2021 WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession

If you’re a golf guru who follows the sport intently, you can count the number of unheralded names in the field at The Concession on one hand. 48 of the top 49 in the OWGR (Official World Golf Ranking) make up the field of 72, but here’s the beauty about betting on the first World Golf Championship event in 2021.

Due to such a star-studded field, guys who are normally priced at +5000 to win a golf tournament are sitting at +8000 and +10000. And don’t think an “outsider” can’t walk away with the trophy in hand.

Max Homa emerged out of a pool of world-beaters at Riviera, and he teed off as a +6000 longshot. I’ll begin my round of WGC sleeper picks with a couple of men lurking at that same number.

Among the favorites at Pebble Beach (+2200), Will Zalatoris has been pushed all the way down the price sheet to where he’s now one of the WGC-Workday Championship at the Concession sleepers. One of four men to post three rounds in the 60s last week at The Genesis Invitational, the 2020 Korn Ferry Person of the Year continues to impress during his first go-around on the big boy circuit.

Will’s ball-striking ranks among the elite in the game, which is why I’m so intrigued by the way he rolled the flat stick in Los Angeles (4th in putts per GIR, 6th in SG: Putting). Should those vibes on the greens carry over into the proceedings at The Concession Golf Club, Zalatoris most definitely will be making some noise.

I touted the Aussie last week as a dark-horse play, and while he didn’t win, a solo-4th tells me I was on the right track.

For just a moment, let’s set aside Cameron’s aggressive throwback mullet and zero in on his exquisite tee-to-green performance at Riv.

Strong slope play from Cameron Smith. ?#QuickHits pic.twitter.com/VdST07LGjU

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 21, 2021

Smith clocked in 2nd in SG: tee-to-green and 2nd in SG: Around-the-Green. He also co-led the field in birdies. Comfortably sitting inside the top -20 in a litany of statistics directly correlated to scoring, the 27-year-old is surging.

Strapped with a trio of top-4s among his last six starts, a third victory on tour is imminent.

Louis Oosthuizen has won the Open Championship and has finished runner-up in the other three majors. He’s won nine times on the European Tour and has 12 career top-10s at WGC events – there’s no denying this man’s pedigree on the game’s brightest stage.

As for the “what have you done for me lately” factor, Louis’ quietly connected on 13 of his last 14 cuts. The pristine ball-striker has been terrific from short-range, converting 264/265 putts from inside five feet. Hence, Oosthuizen ranks 3rd on the PGA Tour in SG: Putting. Coming off a T11 in his last start at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

I don’t care how inconspicuous his recent game log is, you won’t see me passing on a chance to showcase Matthew Wolff in the triple digits. Simply put, his +10000 odds to win the WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession are juicy to pass up.

A quick glance at last week’s leaderboard indicates Wolff’s struggles over the weekend, but he may have found something late on Sunday that he can carry with him across the coast. Starting on #10 on Sunday, Matthew birdies his final two holes (#8 and #9) with authority. This includes a 337-yard bomb on the ninth and a 108-wedge that he hit to nine inches.

As I stated in the introduction, don’t get your hopes up too high that one of the sleeper picks for the WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession is going to be the last man standing. Then again, nobody expected Kevin Kisner to win the WGC-Match Play in 2019. I certainly wasn’t on Russell Knox when he surfaced in Shanghai in 2015.

For those keen on attacking one or more of the favorites, check out the following WGC betting preview. It includes my ultimate pick to win and a couple of other best bets.