Best Bets and Predictions for Week 5 NFL Games (2021)
Week 4 concluded with the Raiders eating a heavy serving of humble pie in LA on Monday night. That leaves just one undefeated team left heading into week 5 – quite the contrary from 2020 when there were six undefeated teams through the first month of the season. Perhaps the playing field is evening out.
Looking ahead to the upcoming schedule, the Rams and Seahawks clash on Thursday Night Football in an all-important NFC West battle. I like Los Angeles to emerge and get to 4-1, but traveling north to Lumen Field and getting out unscathed is a lot easier said than done.
Rather than fade Seattle at home, here are some NFL predictions for week 5 that I have much more confidence in.
Panthers to Beat the Eagles
The Eagles are in a world of hurt. Losing three straight is just the start of their problems; they play at Carolina before hosting the Bucs and traveling to Vegas. Philly is struggling to adjust to life without their top pass rusher (Brandon Graham), and their offensive line is seriously banged up.
Brandon Brooks is out for the season, and Lane Johnson’s still MIA. The Eagles signed Jordan Mailata to a $64 million extension after week 1 – he’s missed the last two weeks and has no timetable for a return (sprained knee).
Christian McCaffrey remains sidelined, and the Panthers will be without leading tackler Shaq Thompson, but Carolina is well-equipped to handle these absences. Sam Darnold is playing the best football of his career; DJ Moore is proving he’s one of the best wideouts in the league. The defense is littered with playmakers at every level.
To further showcase the disparity between these two organizations, know that Philly is among the worst in the league at stopping opponents on third down (48.0%). On the flip side, the Panthers lead the league when it comes to shutting the opposition down on third down. (23.8%).
Patriots to Beat the Texans
It’s hard not to feel for Davis Mills. Playing with a depleted supporting cast and a lame-duck coaching staff, the rookie out of Stanford has little to no chance to succeed. Facing a riled-up Bill Belichick coming off a loss, we can go ahead and drop the “little” and just stick with “no chance.”
To quickly remind you how effective “The Hoody” has been against rookie QBs, know that the Pats have surrendered 9.5 points per game during their last six contests facing a rookie quarterback. And these weren’t slouches; these were franchise rookie QBs who were drafted early in the first round.
- Josh Allen
- Justin Herbert
- Sam Darnold
- Daniel Jones
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Zach Wilson
The Texans are one of three teams that average fewer than 265 yards of offense per game. They’re also one of five teams surrendering more than 400 yards per game on defense. They’ve lost their last three games by 10, 15, and 40.
Those simply looking for the safest NFL picks look no further than backing New England to win in week 5.
Cowboys to Beat the Giants
Danny Dimes is balling. If you missed his performance in New Orleans last weekend, let me get you caught up. Jones is the league’s second-highest graded passer through four weeks, per PFF, plus he leads all NFL players in yards per carry (6.96).
The Giants are going to win some more big games this season, but I’d be pumping my brakes about a potential upset in Dallas. Even if New York plays a perfect game on Sunday, I’m not sure it’d be enough to outlast Dak Prescott and company.
With Kellen Moore calling the shots on offense and the defense playing as well as it is, the Cowboys are a serious Super Bowl contender.
Talk about weapons galore, Dallas’ offense is loaded to the brim. Tony Pollard’s emergence has raised Zeke’s level of play. The Cowboys are getting a big boost from Dalton Shultz, and the play of the offensive line has been nothing short of outstanding.
The Cowboys have 3️⃣ of the Top-5 highest-graded offensive linemen this season ?— PFF (@PFF) October 4, 2021
Zack Martin – 93.4 (2nd)
Tyron Smith – 91.6 (3rd)
Connor McGovern – 88.6 (5th) pic.twitter.com/2uRwcmKBMc
This is a golden opportunity for Dallas to start separating themselves from the rest of the pack in the NFC East standings.
Cardinals to Beat the 49ers
One of my best NFL picks for week 5 is the Cardinals over the 49ers. I don’t need to wait to find out if it’ll be Jimmy G or Trey Lance. I don’t think it matters in terms of predicting the outcome of this game.
It’s one thing to be 4-0 and the lone undefeated team in the land. It’s another when you’ve scored 31 or more points every single week and just lambasted the previously undefeated Rams in Los Angeles.
While I’m still reluctant to call Kliff Kingsbury a solid NFL coach, it’s hard to argue with the product he’s putting out there on Sundays.
Kyler Murray’s in the running to win the MVP as the offense is getting steady contributions from a number of individuals. The combination of Chandler Jones and J.J. Watt on the edges allows the linebackers and secondary to roam freely.
No matter how you slice it, the Cardinals are a bonafide bunch. I’m not sold on a Niners team whose only wins came against the Lions and the Eagles.
Other NFL Predictions in Week 5
- Rams to Beat Seahawks
- Jets to Beat Falcons
- Bengals to Beat Packers
- Vikings to Beat Lions
- Broncos to Beat Steelers
- Buccaneers to Beat the Dolphins
- Saints to Beat The Football Team
- Titans to Beat the Jaguars
- Raiders to Beat the Bears
- Chargers to Beat the Browns
- Chief to Beat the Bills
- Ravens to Beat the Colts
It’s not all chalk with my week 5 NFL predictions. I’m picking Denver to win at Pittsburgh and rolling with a couple of 3.5-point underdogs winning outright (Jets, Bengals).
On paper, it looks like the Jets are on the road this week in Atlanta. The reality is their week 5 game versus the Falcons is being played in London. While the Jets are riding a wave of momentum after upsetting the Titans, the Falcons are busy wondering if Arthur Smith was the right hire.
Speaking of point differential, the Packers sit at -5, and the Bengals are at +17. Cincinnati is well-rested, having played at home on Thursday in week 4; Joe Burrow and company are quietly playing some really good football.
Joe Burrow comeback season:— StatMuse (@statmuse) October 1, 2021
The Bengals are 3-1. pic.twitter.com/mvlrxTprXL
More good news coming out of Cincy’s camp – Zac Taylor says a trio of starters who missed week 4 (WR Tee Higgins, S Jessie Bates, and CB Chidobe Awuzie) are all expected to be back in week 5.
Best Bets for Week 5 of the NFL
- Jets vs. Falcons – Over 46
- Bengals (+3.5) vs. Packers
- Buccaneers (-10) vs. Dolphins
The NFL stands little to gain by a low-scoring snoozefest Sunday in London. The league would love to see lots of points at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. The cherry on top would be if the game goes down to the wire.
For what it’s worth, 63 points were scored the last time the NFL played a game at the building known as “New White Hart Lane.”
Those of you feeling a little uneasy about backing Cincy to pull off the upset, take the 3.5-point cushion you can find at all of the top NFL betting apps. Last but not least, among my best week 5 NFL picks, take the Bucs to cover at home versus the Dolphins.
Miami is reeling on both sides of the ball, and Tom and his crew are due for a breakout performance.
For more insight into NFL picks in week 5, here’s a detailed look at all the week 5 betting lines.