Wednesday’s MLB Predictions and Betting Tips – April 28, 2021

| April 28, 2021 3:53 am PDT

It’s another beautiful day in April with a 15-game slate packing the schedule. From Jacob deGrom and Clayton Kershaw to Tyler Glasnow and Carlos Rodon, it’s aces galore on Wednesday and many intriguing matchups.

I’ll begin with a broad look at MLB predictions before unveiling a few upset picks and my best bets of the day.

MLB Game Winner Predictions for April 28th  

  • Indians to beat the Twins
  • Brewers to beat the Marlins
  • Dodgers to beat the Reds
  • Pirates to beat the Royals
  • Mets to beat the Red Sox
  • Yankees to beat the Orioles
  • Blue Jays to beat the Nationals
  • Rays to beat the Athletics
  • Cubs to beat the Braves
  • Phillies to beat the Cardinals
  • Rangers to beat the Angels
  • White Sox to beat the Tigers
  • Mariners to beat the Astros
  • Diamondbacks to beat the Padres
  • Rockies to beat the Giants

Perhaps the most conspicuous of my MLB picks on April 28th is Seattle over Houston at Minute Maid Park. This is especially true when you account that Zack Greinke was utterly dominant 11 days ago against this same Mariners lineup.

So, why put faith in the M’s?

Seattle starter Justin Dunn has improved every time he’s taken the mound, and the ’Stros hitters are yet to get a look at his stuff up close and personal.

The Mariners are one of the underdogs I’m picking to emerge on Wednesday. Here are three more.

Top MLB Upset Picks for April 28th

  • Indians +108 (over the Twins)
  • Rangers +112 (over the Angels)
  • Rockies +120 (over the Giants)

The safest betting sites opened with the Twins laying juice on the road in Cleveland. Considering J.A. Happ was lights-out the last time out – coupled with Logan Allen looking like a disaster, I understand the motive.

On the flip side, I’m expecting Happ to come down to Earth and Allen to bounce back with a much more productive outing. It might be a contrarian take, but backing the Tribe at home at +108 seems like the right thing to do.

Talk about bouncing back. That’s exactly what I’m pegging Dane Dunning to do tonight at home versus the Angels. The 26-year-old righty was awful on the road against his former team last Friday, but I’ll cut him some slack, knowing his emotions must have been running high.

In Dane’s three previous starts in 2021, he was nothing short of brilliant.

Dane Dunning – First Three Starts in 2021
Date Opponent Innings Hits Earned Runs Strikeouts Walks
4/6/21 Blue Jays 5.0 3 1 6 0
4/12/21 Rays 4.0 2 0 5 2
4/17/21 Orioles 6.0 5 0 5 0

Dunning’s adversary this evening, Alex Cobb, has surrendered at least three runs in all three of his starts and was at his worst last Thursday in a division battle.

Hopping on the Rockies coattails at +120 is another one of my MLB upset picks on Wednesday. San Francisco’s ranked 2nd in the majors in team ERA – the Rockies clock in 25th. Throw in these teams’ records, and it’s hardly a shock that SF is favored.

Then again, Colorado is hitting nearly 20 points higher and scoring more runs per game, plus Bud Black is handing the ball to the ace of his staff. And is it just me, or does Alex Wood seem due for a letdown game?

Best MLB Bets for Wednesday, April 28th

  • Mets over the Red Sox (-230)
  • Rays over the Athletics (-158)

Laying -230 on the money line is typically not something I’ll endorse. The difference here is nothing Jacob deGrom is doing is like anything I’ve seen before. 14 or more Ks in three straight games and a mind-boggling 0.31 ERA through four starts.

For crying out loud, deGrom has more RBI (2) than earned runs allowed (1).

Here’s another fun deGrom stat to remind you of his supremacy. No other pitcher in baseball has logged more than 30 pitches over 99 mph so far this season. Jacob has registered 93 such pitches.

Book the Mets to win now; these odds will only worsen from now until the first pitch.

In the mood to back another big-time starter? Tyler Glasnow finally showed a chink in his armor in his last appearance (vs. Blue Jays), but it was really just one bad inning that ended up costing his team. The 6’8” hard-throwing right-hander has K’d 46 batters in 30.2 innings and will be hungry to get back on track.

Boding well for potential Tampa Bay backers – Oakland is hitting just .214 as a group and is in the top half of the league in strikeouts.

Of all of my MLB picks, grabbing hold of the Mets is surely the most logical. However, latching onto the Mariners is the one that’s steeped in the most upside.

Michael Wynn
Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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