Washington Wizards vs. Golden State Warriors – NBA, April 9, 2021

By Dean McHugh in NBA
| April 9, 2021 10:40 am PDT

Fourth in the Southeast meets fourth in the Pacific as the Warriors host the Wizards at the Chase Center. Although both teams are identically placed within their respected Divisions, it’s the Warriors who find themselves in the mix for the playoffs. The Wizards find themselves detached from the playoff scene in the east, and it would take a mini-miracle for them to qualify.

The Wizards beat the Warriors last time they faced each other, and that win ended a run of six straight defeats against Golden State. The Warriors have also won five of the previous six games at the Chase Center between the two teams, so they will be confident of cementing their place in the playoff berths with a win tonight.

Over the previous ten meetings between these two, the Warriors have averaged seven more points per game. Their success has been down to their excellent shooting as they have scored at a rate of 51% from the field goal range against the Wizards. They have also dominated the boards making seven more rebounds per game on average.

Here is my Wizards vs. Warriors betting preview.

Wizards vs. Warriors Odds

Wizards +4.5 -110
Warriors -4.5 -110
Wizards To Win +167
Warriors To Win -180
Over 239 Points -110
Under 239 Points -110

The spread looks about right here, but the points total looks a shade high. Although these two teams have produced some monstrous scores over recent times, the total set tonight may be a step too far.

Golden State has a good record of 14-5 as the betting favorites this season.

Wizards Assessment

The Wizard’s win over the Magic last time out ended a run of four straight defeats. It was the first time their offense has fired since they beat the Pacers over a week ago. The win also coincided with the return of leading scoring Bradley Beal who has missed the previous five games. You have to feel if Beal had been playing, the Wizards might still have a slim chance of making the playoffs this season. Beal has, without a doubt, been the star of the show for the Wizards this season, and he has added a full ten points per game onto his scoring average.

Washington has been terrible on their travels this season as they have only managed to win eight of their 24 games on the road. The victory over Orlando also ended a run of seven defeats in a row on the road, and therefore, it was significant in more ways than one.

Here are the latest betting trends for Washington:

Against The Spread

  • They have won six of their last nine matches against the Warriors.
  • The Wizards are 2-4 in their previous six games against west coast opposition.

There is nothing substantial to go on here as the two stats cancel each other out.

Points Total

  • Four of their last five games have gone under the betting total.
  • Only two of their previous 11 matches against teams based in the Pacific Division have failed to go over the points total.

Again, there is not a great deal to go on here.

The Wizards have a good offense this season despite not having the most significant shooting figures around. Their three-point shooting is amongst the worst in the league, but they have still managed to average a very respectable 113-points per game.

However, this drops four points per game when you solely focus on their away fixtures, which is why they have struggled away from home this season.

Although their biggest weakness is their leaky defense which is conceding on average 118-points per game (highest average in the NBA), their defense has been marginally better away from home. They have conceded a couple of points less per game.

They need to begin by making more blocks as the three they are averaging per game are the lowest average in the league. The Wizards also need to keep their composure and not give away as many personal fouls as they currently are. Far too often, they get embroiled in altercations which leads to them losing their cool.

All the talk has been about Bradley Beal this season and arguably so. However, Russell Westbrook is etching his name into the history books as he continues to break records season upon season. Westbrook has somewhat gone quietly under the radar at times this season, but those who have followed the Wizards closely will have seen why he is on his way to becoming a future NBA Hall of Famer.

Beal remains questionable to feature tonight, but the signs are that he will play. The Wizards will also miss both Bryant and Gafford, who are both out with injuries.

Warriors Assessment

The Warriors have lacked as of late, winning only two of their previous nine games. However, they produced a gritty one-point victory over the Bucks last time out, and they will be hoping this will rejuvenate them to finish the season strong. But things could have been very different if the Bucks didn’t miss their final shot of the game.

The Warriors have been excellent at home this season, having won 15 and lost nine of their 24 home fixtures. They have now won their last two games at the Chase Center, and given their recent successes over the Wizards, they should be confident of making it three in a row tonight.

Here are the latest betting trends for Golden State:

Against The Spread

  • Golden State is 2-7 in their previous nine matches.
  • They have only won two of their last seven games against teams in the Eastern Conference.

These stats confirm the poor form of the Warriors of late.

Points Total

  • Six of their last seven games against the Wizards have gone over the betting total.
  • Only two of their previous seven matches against teams based in the Southeast Division have failed to go over the points total.
  • The total has gone under five of the last six games that the Warriors have entered as the betting favorites.

These stats counter each other, and therefore there isn’t much to go on.

Other Pointers

  • Golden State is 10-5 in their last 15 matches.

This highlights that perhaps things aren’t as bad as they seem for the Warriors if you look at the bigger picture.

Despite seeing so many of their games go over the points total, the Warriors only have an average-looking offense this season. However, they have attacked better at home as they have averaged three points more per game.

Their offensive rebounding has been terrible this season as they have the worst average per game in the league.

However, they move the ball around the court well and have made the most assists in the NBA this season.

Their defense has been lacking despite them holding their opponents to a field goal average of 45%. They have also conceded three fewer points at home, meaning they are six points better off at home this season which is why they have been so much better.

Much like their opponents tonight, the Warriors have had discipline problems this season so expect a physical game tonight.

Stephen Curry has been the star of the show for the Warriors this season as he sits second in the scoring ranks and top of the three-pointers list. Many believe the veteran is playing the best basketball of his career, and with the form like he showed against the Bucks last time out, where he scored 41-points, it’s hard to argue with that claim.

The Warriors have two players listed as absent tonight, and they are Thompson and Paschall, who have long-term injuries.

Wizards vs. Warriors Betting Pick

Pick
  • Under 239 Points
    -110

This is a tricky game to call as neither team has played great recently. The Warriors have an excellent record against the Wizards, but they aren’t doing the things they usually do well against them right now, which puts me off backing them. I’m also not convinced Beal is a 100% fit, putting me off backing the Wizards.

I think this game could become a scrap between two physical sides, and therefore it could impact the scoreline. They have averaged 235-points between them over their previous ten encounters, which reduces significantly to 225-points when you combine their averages this season. Therefore, it makes perfect sense to pick under the points total here tonight.

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