Warlley Alves vs. Mounir Lazzez Betting Preview – UFC Fight Night (January 20, 2021)

| January 13, 2021 9:23 am PDT

Another awesome matchup coming our way is Mounir Lazzez vs. Warlley Alves at UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny on Wednesday, January 30.

I’ll be providing you with odds for Alves vs. Mounir, the best bets for the fight, and my prediction for who will come out on top in this intriguing welterweight scrap.

Alves was the first fighter to beat Colby Covington as a pro. The Brazilian is known for being a well-rounded fighter with a strong submission game but comes up against Lazzez, who is regarded as a deadly striker with considerable stopping power.

Will Lazzez knock Alves out and edge closer to the upper reaches of the UFC’s welterweight division? Or will Alves experience and style neutralize that power and get him back into the winning column?

Before we go any further, let me answer that question.

Alves vs. Lazzez – Who Wins the Fight?

  • Mounir Lazzez by KO/TKO

Lazzez means business.

Not only does he have power and solid fundamentals, but he’s just so hungry right now.

Alves will not be looking forward to this fight because “The Sniper” is just so busy. The Brazilian has an awful habit of losing his mojo in fights, and I think he will have his back to the wall from the first exchange.

While I’m not sure if this will be among the best UFC fights to bet on in January, I think it will be worth a watch.

I’ll explain my thoughts behind why I’m picking Lazzez to beat Alves a little later. Before we do get there, let’s check out the line for Alves vs. Lazzez.

Alves vs. Lazzez Odds

Warlley Alves to Win+170
Mounir Lazzez to Win-210

If you’re betting Alves to beat Lazzez, odds of +170 with Bovada should sweeten the deal.

But is the Brazilian good enough to back in this fight? I’m not sure that even a $170 profit on a stake of $100 is tempting enough for me to part with my cash.

Although he is just 30-years-old, Alves seems to have deteriorated as a fighter since being Covington in 2015, posting four losses and three wins since that fight.

On the other hand, Lazzez looked awesome in his UFC debut against the hard-as-nails Abdul Razak Alhassan in July 2020.

Lazzez’s odds to beat Alves are -210, which I would have agreed with directly after his win over Alhassan. But the fact that Khaos Williams starched the Ghanaian in just 30 seconds in his next fight takes the shine off Lazzez’s performance. Just a little.

I’m not majorly keen on backing Lazzez at those odds, so I have identified better markets to target courtesy of these top MMA betting sites.

Best Bets for Alves vs. Lazzez

  • Fight to End Under 2.5 Rounds -110
  • Lazzez to Win by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission +162

I’m playing it safe in this fight, targeting just two bets.

The first is for the Fight to End Under 2.5 Rounds (-110).

The bookies don’t have a lot of data to work off when it comes to Lazzez, given that he has only fought in the promotion once before, winning by way of decision.

But I think that he can get this fight done and dusted inside the distance. Odds of -110 for the fight to end before the 12 minutes and 30 seconds mark are definitely appealing, as they also cover you if Alves gets the win under 2.5 rounds.

Lazzez to Win by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission (+162) is the only other bet I am considering ahead of this fight.

I believe the Tunisian has the skills on the feet to subject Alves to the second KO/TKO of his career. Submitting him, however, is out of the question. But if it happens, somehow, you’ll still win your bet. The same applies to a win by DQ.

Nice, huh? Well, yes, providing Lazzez wins.

I am confident that he will. Here’s why.

Why Lazzez Beats Alves

Mounir Lazzez has the momentum behind him, having earned a significant win on his UFC debut back in July.

If the Tunisian can make it two from two, the wider UFC betting community will sit up and take notice.

Warlley Alves, while not over the hill by any means, seems to have gone backward in recent years. He has injuries and layoffs that have affected his performances inside the cage, but it appears that the wear and tear of an eleven-year pro career might just give Lazzez another advantage in this fight.

I can see Lazzez earning a KO/TKO win in the early stages of his UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny co-main. I believe it will be quick and spectacular, too.

So, my final prediction for Lazzez vs. Alves is Lazzez to win by a head kick stoppage in the first round.

Specific enough?

More Predictions and Bets for UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny

You can get a hold of my predictions and best bets for Chiesa vs. Magny and the rest of the fights on January 20 on our UFC predictions and picks section.

If you’re betting on Chiesa vs. Magny, I have left a betting preview for you below. Additionally, I have added a betting guide for McGregor vs. Poirier 2 and some additional material to help you bet on UFC 257.

Take a read before you do anything else today!

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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