Value Picks and Sleepers for the FireKeepers Casino 400 in 2021

| August 20, 2021 6:03 am PDT

I know it’s going to be tough, but let’s move our attention away from the likes of Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott for a minute.

Instead, we should focus on some of the best 2021 FireKeepers Casino 400 sleepers and value bets ahead of the big race at the Michigan International Speedway this Sunday, August 22.

Although this race isn’t traditionally the best when it comes to landing Cup Series longshot bets and outsiders in general, all hope is not lost. There is value to be had on some of the drivers lining up in Michigan this weekend, and I’m going to share the best of ’em with you today.

Let’s take a look at the first of my FireKeepers Casino 400 value picks for 2021.

Kurt Busch (+3300)

From 40 career starts at Michigan, Busch has three wins, seven top-5s, and 17 top-10s.

All of the combined efforts here over the years leave the elder of NASCAR’s famous brothers with a respectable average finish of 17.90. His 496 laps led are the third-best behind Kevin Harvick (699) and Joey Logano (590).

Now, you can kind of get a better understanding of why I consider the Cup Series veteran one of NASCAR’s best sleepers for the FireKeepers Casino 400 this weekend. But there is more to add.

To reiterate an important point, Michigan is a track that doesn’t lend itself well to outsiders. With that in mind, the focus is on looking for realistic value in the odds for this Sunday’s NASCAR.

While Busch is an attractive option for an outside bet at these odds, I would be surprised if he wins.

The 43-year-old has victories at Michigan in 2003, 2007, and 2015, respectively. He has form here in recent times, too, with five top-10s and a 2nd and 3rd place in his last six starts.

I’m not entirely against the idea of backing him for the win. But I do see better options on the grid. However, there is good value in Busch finishing in the top-5 at +400. His experience of the track is solid, and he has been warm in recent weeks. 

Busch punched his ticket to the Playoffs with a win in Atlanta on July 11, having finished 4th at the Road America in his previous race. He finished 6th at Indiana last week, too.

A good shout.

Aric Almirola (+5000)

Like Busch, Almirola stormed to an unexpected win in July.

It was a huge win for Almirola, with his victory at the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 giving him a huge chance of making the playoffs. Normally, a win would guarantee a place in the Round of 16. But this year’s unpredictability could mean he might miss out.

Unlike Kurt Busch, Almirola does not have the option to rest on his laurels when it comes to the final 16. Not to say that Busch is, but you get my drift.

This is where it gets exciting for this year’s All-Star Open winner. Put simply, he has to push harder to give himself the best chance to reach the promised land.

Almirola might make the grade, or he might not. But he earns a place on my list of the top sleeper picks for the FireKeepers Casino 400. Not as a winner, I might add, but as a +850 shot to finish in the top-5.

Ryan Newman (+15000)

Newman also earns a spot on my list of the top value bets for the 2021 FireKeepers Casino 400.

As a NASCAR longshot bet, he could be worth a dollar or two at these odds. But once again, I’d suggest looking at the Cup Series prop bets markets for a realistic price for the veteran.

Newman is one of just seven active drivers to win in Michigan. He has two victories on the track, as well as six top-5s and ten top-10s. Although, from his last six races here, he has just one top-10 finish.

The odds for the FireKeepers Casino 400 say it all about what the oddsmakers think of Newman’s chances. But having checked out the prop bets markets for this Sunday’s race on the best NASCAR betting apps, I rather like +2500 for Newman to break the top-5.

Additional NASCAR Betting Picks

That’s all for my FireKeepers Casino 400 sleepers and value picks.

However, the team has more NASCAR predictions and recommended bets available for you to look at. You can find the latest suggested bets and DFS advice for Cup Series and Xfinity races coming up by visiting the following section of our site. 

Good luck with your bets!

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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