Valencia vs. Atletico Madrid – La Liga, November 28, 2020

By Admir Aljic in Soccer
| November 27, 2020 6:58 am PDT

Valencia displayed a great fighting spirit in the last three rounds as they managed to come from behind and salvage points in each. In between two 2-2 draws with Getafe and Alaves, the Bats managed to beat the defending champions Real Madrid 4-1, and it seems they are improving at the moment. Valencia is in 9th position in LaLiga with 12 points from ten matches.

Atletico Madrid, on the other hand, is the only unbeaten side in LaLiga, and with two games in hand opposite the league leaders Real Sociedad, Diego Simeone’s team can climb the top of the standings pretty soon. They are on a five-game winning run in the league and currently have 20 points from eight games, three behind Sociedad.

Here is my Valencia vs. Atletico Madrid betting pick and get the latest news, stats, and H2H record.

Valencia vs. Atletico Madrid Odds

BET ODDS
Valencia +0.5 +114
Atletico Madrid -0.5 -127
Valencia to Win +394
Atletico Madrid to Win -120
Draw +280
Over 2.5 +125
Under 2.5 -133

Valencia Team News and Stats

Five consecutive LaLiga matches that have seen both teams score, means Valencia witnessed a league-high 70% of their fixtures produce over 2.5 goals, although that hasn’t helped them much in the win column (W3, D3, L4). In fact, in just two seasons since the turn of the century have Valencia lost more games at this stage than in this campaign, which will no doubt be a worry as they take on a side, Atletico Madrid, that they’re winless against in 11 straight H2H duels (D5, L6).

While the hosts have allowed an average of 1.6 goals per LaLiga home match, they remain without a loss in four of five games played at Mestalla (W2, D2, L1), despite scoring the opening goal in only two home contests. Still, it’s their come-back-ability that has shone through, as no LaLiga side has won more points (eight) from losing positions than Valencia this year (home/away).

Javier Gracia Carlos cannot count on Jasper Cillessen (muscle), Mouctar Diakhaby (muscle), Jose Gaya (muscle), and Maximiliano Gomez (knee).

Atletico Madrid Team News and Stats

Yet even the hosts might not survive an Atletico opener, given the visitors possess the best defense in Europe’s top five leagues after allowing an average of only 0.25 goals per LaLiga game. That defense helped Los Colchoneros to a 1-0 victory over Barcelona in their previous league match, in turn extending their club-record unbeaten LaLiga run to 24 games (W15, D9) – the fourth-longest streak in the tournament’s history.

Clinical Atletico capitalized at all chances this term, scoring a league-high three goals from goalkeeper mistakes alone. However, two straight two-goal difference wins away from home this LaLiga campaign – both of which they led at halftime – shows it isn’t luck that’s driving this team’s early title charge.

Diego Simeone will be without Diego Costa (illness), Luis Suarez (illness), Lucas Torreira (illness), Hector Herrera (muscle), Manuel Sanchez (thigh), and Sime Vrsaljko (knee).

Valencia vs. Atletico Madrid Betting Pick

Atletico Madrid won six of the previous ten H2H encounters (D4), including two of the last three (D1), while Los Colchoneros were victorious in two of the past five meetings at Mestalla (D3). Valencia’s previous win over Atletico came in 2014 when they secured a 3-1 victory at this venue. Although the visitors are the favorites in this clash, I am going to avoid betting on the winner here, because Valencia is a tough team to predict. The Bats are scoring and conceding a bunch of goals this season, and I am backing them to score at least one against Jan Oblak and Atletico, just like they did in each of the last four meetings.

Pick
  • BTTS YES
    +102

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