Utah State Aggies vs. UNLV Rebels Betting Perview – NCAAB, January 27, 2021
The Aggies currently occupy the fourth spot in the Mountain West Conference, and the Rebels are down in seventh. Although only three places are separating them, the Rebels have a way to go to catch the Aggies. However, a win tonight would undoubtedly be a great place to start.
The recent head-to-head record between the two is close, with Utah State winning three and UNLV two. However, what will go in the Rebel’s favor is knowing that the home team has won this fixture on the previous five occasions. The last of them played just two days ago when the Rebels upset the apple cart and beat the Aggies 59-56.
That game was largely down to who could shoot better from distance, and it was the Rebels who won, making 13 of their 30 attempts.The Aggies had a miserable day from outside the D, making just three baskets from 22 shots. Perhaps they didn’t get the ball enough to Brock Miller, who has a 42% field goal percentage from range.
Let’s look at the match odds before deciding on my Aggies vs. Rebels Betting Pick.
Aggies vs. Rebels Odds
The spread looks a couple of points higher than I would have expected it to be. Especially as the Rebels will be heading into this one brimming with confidence following their win over the Aggies two days ago. Even though the points total is much bigger than the final score the other day, I would say it’s about right as the game two days ago was freakishly low.
After nine wins in a row, the Aggies have lost their last two against Colorado State and tonight’s opponents, UNLV. They will want to return to winning ways as soon as possible before their season derails completely.
They have been one of the best teams in the Mountain West Conference on the road, having won five of their seven road trips. In truth, their wins on the road recently have come against much weaker opposition, so that stat probably doesn’t paint the whole picture.
Here are the latest betting trends for Utah State:
- They have only won ten of their previous 12 games against the spread.
- Four of their last six games have gone under the betting total.
- The Aggies are 4-2 in their last six games against the Rebels when betting against the spread.
- Only one of their previous five games on the road has gone over the points total.
- Utah State has won 12 of the last 14 games against teams in the Mountain West Conference.
- The total has gone under in nine of their previous 11 games played in January.
The Aggies have a good, hard-working offense that works very well as a team. They don’t have the glitz and the glam that some teams have but what they do have in their arsenal is one hell of an excellent rebounding team. That, combined with some terrific assist stats, makes them a potent threat against anyone.
Their offense has been even better away from home, and their shooting has been deadly.
However, they can sometimes get carried away with themselves as they did last time out against the Rebels, and complacency sets in. This results in them losing control of the game and making a high number of turnovers.
With that said, they do have some pretty high steal figures, so if this does happen, they at least have the ability to get the ball back.
They have a terrific defense to add to their offense, which again carries the same good work ethic that their offense has. They are currently conceding an average of 61 points per game, making them the 16th best defense in the country. They are only conceding an average of 56 points per game on the road, which is the fifth-best record in the country.
They are currently averaging just under five blocks per game, which is streets ahead of anyone else in the Conference.
They’re not particularly bad at anything, so you could say they are a well-rounded team. This results in a fantastic point per game difference of 13.6, the second-best in the Conference. They generally have good discipline and don’t tend to do anything stupid when they are behind, like commit unnecessary fouls.
Neemias Queta leads a lot of the rankings for the Aggies, and the seven-foot star is tipped to be the first Portuguese player to play in the NBA.
The Aggies come into this game with no absentees.
Although the Rebels upset the Aggies two days ago, they won’t want to rest on the laurels. They will want to show everyone that it was no fluke and continue their current win streak, which stands at five. However, it must be said that apart from the Aggies, they have beaten nobody of note.
They have a good record at home, having won five of their eight games this season, which were the last five games they have played.
Here are the latest betting trends for UNLV:
- They have won six of their previous seven matches against the spread.
- Five of their last six games have gone under the betting total.
- Their last five games against Utah State have all gone under the points total.
- UNLV is 2-6 against the spread in their previous eight games played on a Wednesday.
The Rebel’s offense matches up pretty well with the Aggies attack, and they both play a similar style of basketball. The main differences are the Aggies are much better at rebounding, and the Rebels are more accurate from deep.
UNLV is also good at controlling the ball and slowing the game down, as they did in their recent victory over the Aggies. This meant that when the Aggies did get control of the ball, they were all too eager to use it, and they became their own worst enemies.
While their defense isn’t as good as the Aggies, it isn’t far off. They press and close team’s down well, particularly around the key. Their defense has also been better at home this season, but I think that’s more to do with the caliber of opponents they have played than their playing ability.
Much like Utah State, the Rebels are also very good at winning the ball back, so this should be another good battle within this game. This battle was won by the Rebels recently for one simple reason; they were more disciplined.
With the two teams matching up so closely, it was no wonder the game two days ago was so close.
Bryce Hamilton has had a real breakout year for the Rebels, but that hasn’t all he has broken in the past. He was known for having a bad attitude and a real rule breaker, but he has since turned the corner, which has resulted in more game time for him to shine.
Both Coleman and Lindsey are out for the season, and Hurlburt faces a late fitness test to see if he will be ready to return for this one.
Aggies vs. Rebels Pick
The key to victory could be how good each team defends and, perhaps, in particular, the Rebels. The Rebels have lost all six games that they have conceded 74 points or more in. However, they have won all six games that they have conceded less than 74 points in. I think this game could follow a similar pattern to the game two days ago.
I believe the Aggies will be fired up and fuelled by revenge, which will lead to more ill-discipline. The Rebels will look to frustrate them and add to this fire, leading to the Aggie’s demise.