Prediction and Betting Pick for USA vs. Mexico in the 2021 CONCACAF Gold Cup Final

| July 31, 2021 2:25 am PDT

The most-played final in CONCACAF Gold Cup history is set to take place for a seventh time this Sunday, August 1, as arch-rivals USA and Mexico go head-to-head at Allegiant Stadium.

It’s safe to say the Stars and Stripes have struggled to get the better of El Tri over the years. But with newfound confidence and the backing of the home crowd, Gregg Berhalter’s boys will be confident of upsetting the Gold Cup odds this time around.

Just in case you needed reminding, the USA’s record against Mexico in the Gold Cup finals isn’t pretty.

USA and Mexico in Gold Cup Finals
Year Result Champion
2019 Mexico 1-0 USA Mexico
2011 Mexico 4-2 USA Mexico
2009 Mexico 5-0 USA Mexico
2007 USA 2-1 Mexico USA
1998 Mexico 1-0 USA Mexico
1993 Mexico 4-0 USA Mexico

Can the Mexicans dispatch the US for a sixth time and take their Gold Cup trophy tally to 12? Or will the Americans be able to emulate the heroics of the famous 2007 team?

In this 2021 CONCACAF Gold Cup final betting preview, I discuss the odds for Sunday’s showdown, analyze the teams, and share my prediction and pick.

USA vs. Mexico – Gold Cup Final Odds

USA to Win3.20
The Draw2.88
Mexico to Win2.25
Both Teams to Score2.00
Over 2.5 Goals2.20
Under 2.5 Goals1.62

As you would expect, all the online sportsbooks view Mexico (2.25) as the favorite to win this one. However, the high price for the El Tri victory suggests the USA (3.20) will put up a fight.

With so much at stake, the draw (2.88) is definitely worth considering here. I have also included some goal-based markets that I like the look of.

Let’s take a closer look at the teams.

Can the USA Upset the Gold Cup Odds?

The States booked their spot in the final thanks to a last-gasp victory over Qatar on Thursday. Despite enjoying almost 60% possession, the US survived a barrage of 18 shots – and a missed penalty – before Gyasi Zardes netted the winner on 86 minutes.

Remarkably, the USA has now recorded four 1-0 wins in five Gold Cup outings this summer. Aside from the 6-1 thrashing of Martinique on Matchday 2, the hosts have notched four narrow victories to reach this stage.

I don’t think Berhalter will mind too much, though. I mean, his players have achieved four shutouts en route to the final and have already seen tricky challengers like Canada and Jamaica.

The Stars and Stripes can take huge confidence from their previous meeting with Mexico, too. At the beginning of June, they came from behind on two occasions to beat El Tri in the inaugural CONCACAF Nations League final – underlining their progress as a team.

Will Mexico’s CONCACAF Dominance Continue?

Meanwhile, the Mexicans secured a dramatic late win to overcome Canada in the semifinals. With seconds remaining, Hector Herrera bagged a 99th-minute winner to hand his side a 2-1 victory.

Everybody was shocked when Tata Martino’s men were held to a goalless draw by Trinidad & Tobago on Matchday 1, but they have been totally dominant since then. After seeing off Guatemala and El Salvador in the group stage, Mexico crushed Honduras 3-0 in the quarterfinals.

When you look at the bigger picture, the Mexicans have only lost two of their last 23 matches in all competitions.

Having secured a whopping 18 wins during that period, they will surely fancy their chances of lifting the trophy on Sunday.

The defending champions know what it takes to go all the way and clinch the silverware, but they will be wary of the USA’s threat.

My USA vs. Mexico Betting Pick

Pick
  • Both Teams to Score
    2.00

In all honesty, I truly believe this game could go either way. Although Berhalter’s boys have proved they can beat Mexico, you can never write off El Tri in a Gold Cup final.

Rather than trying to predict the outcome of this clash, I recommend backing both teams to score. The two sides produced a five-goal thriller last month, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they dish up a similar scoreline this time around.

Considering both teams boast an array of exciting attacking players, odds of 2.00 for both teams to score feel very generous.

Ben Morris
Ben Morris

Ben is a sportswriter and tipster who specializes in soccer. Currently based in the UK, he has traveled all around the world watching – and betting on – his beloved sport.

Alongside his regular soccer content, Ben publishes blogs and picks for cricket, Formula 1, Aussie rules, darts, and various other sports.

Ben is a diehard fan of Nottingham Forest and England, so he hasn’t had much to cheer about in recent years!

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