Best Upset Picks for Week 6 of the NFL Season

| October 12, 2021 3:26 pm PDT

Last week we went 2 for 4 on my upset picks for Week 5, but the Colts game came down to the wire and almost made that 3 out of 4.

Upset picks are very difficult to predict and are the underdogs for a reason. Sportsbooks know how risky it is to bet on certain teams, and they make a team have increased odds to try and lure people into betting on them. While that works out a good amount of the time, it isn’t always guaranteed.

There are several upset wins that happen every week in the NFL, like the Bills, Eagles, and Steelers from last week.

Let’s try and predict this week’s upset winners.

Arizona Cardinals (+125)

Now, the Cardinals have been playing like the best team in football. They are undefeated after 5 weeks and have beaten tough teams in the Rams, 49ers, and Titans. Kyler Murray looks to be an MVP candidate, and the defense is coming together as well.

The reason why they are on my list this week is simply because they are an underdog. The sportsbooks favor the Browns to beat them at home, while the Cardinals are in the top 3 in most power rankings.

The 3-2 Browns went round for round with the Los Angeles Chargers, ultimately losing in a shootout to the score of 47-42. This game with the Cardinals can absolutely be another shootout because of both teams’ powerhouse offenses. The Cardinals have the 4th most points on the year, while the Browns are right behind them at 6th.

If the Cardinals are going to win this game, they are going to have to stop the run. The Browns offense ranks first in the league in rushing yards per game (187.6), and that is the center point to their offense. If you can force Baker Mayfield to pass, you can beat the Browns.

New England Patriots (+180)

You may not want to put your money on the Patriots after they almost blew it against the Houston Texans, but they might be able to pull off the upset here.

The Dallas Cowboys look very solid and are going to be a tough team to beat for any team, but if anyone can devise a game plan to stop this high-powered offense, it’s Bill Belichick.

He is going to have his hands full because the Cowboys have a lethal passing and rushing attack, as well as their stellar offensive line.

The Patriots’ offense seemed to be getting more comfortable under Mac Jones in recent weeks, and I think they can put up some decent points on the Cowboys’ defense. If the Patriots can run the ball effectively and make timely throws, they can keep Dak and the Boys off the field and win the game.

Chicago Bears (+175)

Aaron Rodgers has had the Bears number in recent memory, but this Bears team is on the come up.

Their defense looked great against the Raiders, holding them to just 9 points and winning 20-9. Khalil Mack has been a sack monster this season with 5 on the season. He would have had another one if sacks counted on two-point conversions as well.

The Bears defense ranks first in the NFL with 18 sacks but are among the bottom 3 when it comes to blitz percentage (13%). That is great news because of the Bears’ ability to get to the quarterback without taking somebody out of coverage.

Jaylon Johnson has also been emerging as a star cornerback in the league, but he will have his toughest task yet with Davante Adams. The Packers use Adams uniquely and effectively, but if Johnson can limit him to only a good game and not a great game, the Bears can pull off the upset.

Aaron Rodgers’ away record (53-49) is also significantly worse than his home record (80-19-1), so the Bears have that in their favor as well. They also just lost star cornerback Jaire Alexander to a lengthy injury, who is added to the list of Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Za’Darius Smith as impact players that won’t be playing this game.

If Justin Fields can put some points on this injury-riddled Packers’ defense, the Bears can beat their historic rivals.

Houston Texans (+400)

The odds for the Texans are insane. They almost were able to pull off the upset against the Patriots, which would have been groundbreaking for rookie quarterback Davis Mills.

Not many rookie quarterbacks can do what Mills did against Bill Belichick, so if he can translate that to this week’s matchup, the Texans have a chance.

The Texans’ game plan worked to perfection early in the game, and their coaching is looking pretty solid and underrated. A lot of people have been expecting the Texans to get steamrolled in every matchup this season, but that hasn’t been the case.

The Colts are not going to be an easy victory, but Carson Wentz is not a consistent quarterback and can leave the door open for the Texans. It is going to be super risky to bet on them, but the payout would be huge.

Best Upset Pick for Week 6 of the NFL Season

This is a tough one, but I am going to have to go with the Patriots (+180).

The Cowboys are a very tough team this year, but the Patriots are capable of winning any game in their home stadium. I think they are a very nice value pick for this week.

Also, be sure to check out our other picks for the NFL right here.

Anthony Haage

Anthony is a sports writer for covering the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and more. He also covers other various topics such as entertainment, general sports betting tips, and more.

His favorite teams are the Chicago Bears, Bulls, Cubs, and Blackhawks. He also will be a temporary fan of any team if it means winning him bets.

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