Best Upset Picks for Week 4 of the 2021 NFL Season

| September 29, 2021 1:38 pm PDT

Hopefully, you caught my upset picks for week 3 and went 4 for 4 with me. Let’s try and pull it off again this week.

The biggest difference between college football and pro football is that in the NFL, every team can sneak out a victory. This is the highest level of football, which means if any team comes into a game unprepared, they can regret it by the end of the game when the underdog walks off the field with a win.

Let’s take a look at which teams can do exactly that in week 4 and make us some money on the best betting sites.

Detroit Lions (+143)

Yes, the Lions are 0-3, but they also play the Bears (1-2), who looked absolutely terrible last week. Bears Head Coach Matt Nagy even said that there might be another quarterback change with Justin Fields injuring his hand in week 3.

Fields probably got hurt after getting demolished all game by Myles Garrett and the Browns, when he was sacked a total of 9(!!!) times. The protection and game plan by the Bears was absolutely abysmal and likely won’t be that much better this week. Matt Nagy should be on the hot seat, and a loss to the Lions would be an extremely telling sign.

The Lions are better than their 0-3 record. They took on tough opponents in the 49ers, Packers, and Ravens and weren’t exactly blown out.

In week 1, the 49ers had a huge lead at halftime, but the Lions made a strong comeback and had a chance to tie it on their last possession, but fell 8 points short.

Week 2 was against the Packers, who were not the team they played like in week 1. The Lions lost this one by 18, but they actually had a 17-14 lead at halftime.

This last week, the Lions were even better. They took on the Baltimore Ravens and nearly got their first win of the year in what would have been a huge upset. It came down to the wire, and the Ravens needed a record-breaking 66-yard field goal that bounced off the crossbar and into the net by Justin Tucker to win it in the dying seconds of regulation.

If the Lions were able to pull off that win, I don’t think they would have been considered the underdogs in this upcoming game against the Bears. I think the Lions get their first win of the season against the Bears, while the Bears get embarrassed for the third time in four weeks.

Baltimore Ravens (+105)

Speaking of the Ravens, they come into Week 4 as underdogs to the undefeated Broncos.

The Broncos have looked good behind Teddy Bridgewater and their tough defense. They have also played some less talented teams in the Jets, Giants, and Jaguars. They face a way bigger challenge against the Ravens this week and will be a true test to their undefeated record.

I think a big reason why the Ravens barely beat the Lions is because of the emotional win they had over the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football the previous week.

They probably were mentally too high coming into their game against the Lions, and the Lions were better than they thought.

They could have lost if Justin Tucker wasn’t the best kicker of all time, but he looks to be that after his record-breaking kick and accuracy throughout his career. Tucker can maybe try and hit another record kick as this game will be played at Mile High Stadium in Denver.

A big reason why I like the Ravens this week is because of the Broncos’ defense, actually.

The Broncos’ defense is top tier… against the pass. Luckily for the Ravens, they don’t really like to pass.

The Ravens will ground and pound the Broncos, which will be a real challenge for their defense. Unlike facing two rookie quarterbacks and Daniel Jones.

I’m trusting the Ravens here to win their third straight and upset the undefeated Broncos.

Indianapolis Colts (+115)

The Colts have not been the model of consistency, but they could be a solid upset pick for this week.

They don’t have a win this year after three weeks and Carson Wentz is having trouble staying healthy. Still, he was able to play last week against the Titans. They take on the Dolphins, who will probably be without Tua Tagovailoa again.

This will be a defensive slugfest, which could be a solid reason to pick the Colts.

I doubt the Dolphins can either get a huge lead or hold one for very long in this one. Both defenses are the strong suits of their team, and both offenses have been unreliable.

If the Colts can pound the rock behind their strong offensive line, they could churn out a win in the end. I’m not huge on Wentz, so hopefully, he doesn’t have any turnovers in this one and keeps the offense moving.

Las Vegas Raiders (+160)

The Raiders find themselves being underdogs for the third time in 4 weeks. They’ve had impressive wins over the Ravens, Steelers, and now the Dolphins. They face the Chargers this week.

The Chargers are coming off a big overtime win over the Chiefs, and the Raiders are also coming off an overtime win over the Dolphins. If both teams still feel the effects of overtime and tough competition, this one can get sloppy.

I think Derek Carr has really been solid this year and could have another big game against the Chargers. The Chargers do have a strong secondary and solid pass rush. I think Josh Jacob’s health is an important factor in the Raiders’ chances to win here as they’ll need to run the ball to win.

That is exactly what they did in their first matchup last season, and they were able to beat the Chargers in week 9. The Chargers actually dominated time of possession in that game (34:44 vs. 25:16), but the Raiders were able to sneak out the win. The Raiders’ defense looks better than they were last season, so they could get off the field more often this time around than in week 8 (2020).

The Raiders couldn’t win their second matchup against the Chargers, as the Chargers were able to beat them in overtime in week 15. That was the game where Derek Carr got injured and Marcus Mariota took over. It’ll be different this time around.

I’m picking the Raiders to extend their undefeated streak and be at the top of the AFC West after week 4 comes to an end.

Be sure to tune into my safest picks for week 4 and follow all of our NFL predictions and picks down below.

Anthony Haage
Anthony Haage

Anthony is a sports writer for covering the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and more. He also covers other various topics such as entertainment, general sports betting tips, and more.

His favorite teams are the Chicago Bears, Bulls, Cubs, and Blackhawks. He also will be a temporary fan of any team if it means winning him bets.

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