Predictions and Top Betting Picks for UFC Vegas 59

| August 3, 2022 10:37 am PDT

UFC Vegas 59 goes down this Saturday, August 6 at the Apex in Las Vegas.

Also known as UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill, the event features a range of fights you can bet on. I’m not going to feed you any nonsense about this being a great card to watch, but events like this usually have a few gems on them. Where the UFC Vegas 59 odds are concerned, that will hopefully translate to more money in your pocket.

I’ll be making UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill predictions and betting picks to help you get there quicker. Again, it’s not exactly the most stacked event you will ever see. But if you’re mostly focusing on making some dough from the fights, who cares?

Latest UFC Vegas 59 Betting Odds

I have taken the odds for UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill from the SportsBetting.ag site.

  • Thiago Santos (+265) vs. Jamahal Hill (-315)
  • Vicente Luque (-195) vs. Geoff Neal (+170)
  • Zac Pauga (-250) vs. Mohammed Usman (+210)
  • Brogan Walker (-105) vs. Juliana Miller (-115)
  • Augusto Sakai (+222) vs. Sergey Spivak (-262)
  • Ariane Lipski (-170) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+145)
  • Sam Alvey (+450) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (-700)
  • Takashi Sato (+235) vs. Bryan Battle (-275)
  • Terrance McKinney (-1000) vs. Erick Gonzalez (+600)
  • Jason Witt (+205) vs. Josh Quinlan (-240)
  • Miranda Granger (+195) vs. Cory McKenna (-230)
  • Mayra Bueno Silva (+113) vs. Stephanie Egger (-133)

Again, not exactly fussed about the quality on show here. It feels like an event for the sake of having one.

Aside from the top two, that is. Especially Vicente Luque vs. Geoff Neal. I would not have been disappointed to see that fight on the main card of last weekend’s UFC 277. It’s a potential welterweight classic, although I believe the oddsmakers have it right in installing Luque as the favorite.

It’s rare to see Thiago Santos as a significant underdog. But four losses from his last five fights mean that bettors are a little tentative to back the 38-year-old, former light heavyweight challenger. Could there be some betting value in his price? Let’s move on to my UFC Vegas 59 predictions for a little more insight.

Main Card Predictions and Betting Picks for UFC Vegas 59

  • Jamahal Hill to Beat Thiago Santos by KO/TKO 
  • Vicente Luque to Beat Geoff Neal by KO/TKO 
  • Zac Pauga to Beat Mohammed Usman by Decision 
  • Brogan Walker to Beat Juliana Miller by Decision 
  • Sergey Spivak to Beat Augusto Sakai by KO/TKO 
  • Ariane Lipski to Beat Priscila Cachoeira by Decision

You can take my UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill predictions with you. 

I would recommend seeing what you can get over on the best UFC betting sites, however. Whether you are looking for the top UFC Vegas 59 props or just a few straight-up bets, you’ll find plenty of markets to choose from. 

I’ll be rounding up the top UFC Vegas 59 betting picks and sleepers a little later. But you can have one off the bat, right now.

Luque to beat Neal by KO/TKO is an incredible +350. Sure, Neal is harder than a coffin nail. The only stoppage loss of his career came outside of the UFC, to Kevin Holland, in 2017.

But 11 of Luque’s 21 career wins have come by way of KO/TKO. Something to think about. 

If you have been following The Ultimate Fighter: Team Pena vs. Team Nunes, you might be aware that the heavyweight and women’s flyweight finals will go down this weekend. But before I reveal if any of those fights make my top UFC Vegas 59 picks and sleepers, let’s quickly cover the prelims portion.

UFC Vegas 59 Prelims Predictions and Picks 

  • Michal Oleksiejczuk to Beat Sam Alvey by KO/TKO
  • Bryan Battle to Beat Takashi Sato by Decision
  • Terrance McKinney to Beat Erick Gonzalez by KO/TKO
  • Josh Quinlan to Beat Jason Witt by KO/TKO
  • Cory McKenna to Beat Miranda Granger by Decision
  • Stephanie Egger to Beat Mayra Bueno Silva by Decision

I can’t say the tone of my free UFC Vegas 59 picks for the prelims differs too much from what I covered on the main card.

I don’t see this event producing an exceptional number of surprises. It’s the fight game, so you can always expect one or two bets to go by the wayside. This is the nature of the beast. 

One particular fight I can see ending violently is Oleksiejczuk vs. Alvey. I can’t help feeling a little sorry for “Smilin’ Sam” in this one, given that he is on course to be stopped. You can get odds of -110 for the Polish middleweight to land the KO/TKO, with +200 for him to get it done in the first round. 

At this stage in his career, Alvey is becoming one of the best MMA fighters for betting. Betting against, that is. 

Wins for Bryan Battle, Terrance McKinney, Josh Quinlan, Cory McKenna, and Stephanie Egger round up the rest of my UFC Vegas 59 predictions and picks for the prelims.

Best Bets for UFC Vegas 59: Santos vs. Hill

As it happens, I have not found any UFC Vegas 59 odds to compliment a solid sleeper pick.

So, alongside my top picks for the card, I’m going to concentrate on value props for UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill. Of which there are significantly more. 

Take a look.

Top Free UFC Vegas 59 Picks

  • Terrance McKinney to Beat Erick Gonzalez (-1000)
  • Michal Oleksiejczuk to Beat Sam Alvey (-700)
  • Sergey Spivak to Beat Augusto Sakai (-262)

McKinney should run through Erick Gonzalez.

Although that may be the case for adding him as one of my free UFC Vegas 59 betting picks, the price leaves much to be desired. If you’re not happy with taking the moneyline price, McKinney’s odds to beat his man by KO/TKO are a much tastier +120.

Oleksiejczuk is another fighter with a heavy markup in the latest UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill odds. Again, if the straight-up price is too prohibitive, consider going for the knockout (-110).

Spivak to beat Sakai is a solid bet. But in keeping with a steady theme here, you could consider the stoppage options. Fire up the best betting app for MMA and check out the prices.

UFC Vegas 59 Value Bets 

  • Miranda Granger to Beat Cory McKenna by Submission (+900)
  • Vicente Luque to Beat Geoff Neal by KO/TKO (+350)
  • Thiago Santos to Beat Jahamal Hill (+265)

Looking for solid value bets for UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill?

Feast your eyes on the prices above. Starting with Granger to beating McKenna by submission, which is a whopping +900.

Now. While I’m leaning toward McKenna winning this fight, those odds paint quite the picture. At this price, you can probably warrant taking a chance for a few dollars or whatever. Granger might have lost her last two fights. But before that, she was 7-0 with six of those wins coming by submission.

I’ve spoken about the value in backing Luque earlier. But Santos to beat Hill? That might appear to have come out of the blue.

Well, not exactly. I’m not contradicting myself when I suggest there is value in Santos’ odds. After all, this is just Hill’s second headline event, and he is a rookie compared to the #6 ranked Brazilian. Santos is well-versed in the art of the five-round fight, having squeezed in three from his last five fights. 

Furthermore, all of Santos’ last five fights have not produced a knockout loss. He might have lost four of them, but have you seen the names?

  • Magomed Ankalaev – Decision Loss (5)
  • Johnny Walker – Decision Loss (5)
  • Aleksandar Rakic – Decision Loss (3)
  • Glover Teixeira – Submisson Loss (3)
  • Jon Jones – Decision Loss (5)

Some believe that Silva was robbed against Jon Jones.

Without getting into that debate, it’s worth looking at the quality of his opposition. More importantly, how he has managed to go the distance against two former champions and a guy who is considered the future in Ankalev.

Hill relies on bouncing his opponents out of there in the early stages. Does he have the cardio to survive for five rounds if he can’t pop Silva? Let’s not forget that Paul Craig sent him to sleep in June last year, too.

Whatever you choose to do, make sure to think about the wagers you are placing. Whether that is on UFC or Bellator cards, always put some thought into what makes sense.

On that topic, I’ll leave you with a comparison of which promotion is better to wager on!

UFC or Bellator - Which Is Superior for Sports Bettors?

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Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

More Posts by Adam Contact Adam

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