UFC Vegas 40 DFS Picks and Lineup Advice for Saturday, October 16th
Aspen Ladd’s fight didn’t make the cut last week, so she’ll try again on Saturday, October 16th. She and Norma Dumont butt heads in the main event, while the rest of the UFC Vegas 40 card looks pretty inviting, as well.
I’m back to see which MMA DFS picks are the best to go with. The past two tries haven’t gone amazing, but I did vouch for Alexander Romanov, while I said the main event would go the distance (+175).
That probably wasn’t enough to help you win in daily fantasy MMA, but there’s always next week. For the betting side of things, check out Adam Haynes’ UFC Vegas 40 betting predictions. Then join me for a look at the top MMA DFS picks and best lineup.
Top MMA DFS Picks for UFC Vegas 40
My favorite daily fantasy MMA picks didn’t crush like I’d hoped last week. I got one right, but one of my fighter’s lost, and the third fight was cancelled.
Hopefully my top UFC Vegas 40 DFS picks work out a bit better. Here’s a look at the three fighters I am looking to build around on Saturday at DraftKings.
Bruno Silva ($8.3k)
The 32-year old Silva is a savage. He’s gone 20-6 in his career with 17 knockouts. He reminded everyone of his explosive ability in his UFC debut, when he ended Wellington Turman via punches.
— MMA mania (@mmamania) June 19, 2021
That was a quick first round win, and something he’s accomplished in four of his last five fights. I am always down for that type of upside, and he has a good shot at scoring another win by stoppage here.
Silva won’t end the fight via submission (0 career wins via submission), but he’s never been KO’d and he doesn’t let his fights go the distance.
His chief weakness has been defending submissions, too, and Andrew Sanchez arguably isn’t a guy he really needs to fear there (2 submissions in 18 fights).
If I am betting against Silva, it’s due to an elite submission guru, or a really dangerous striker.
This matchup favors Silva, who is the rightful -150 favorite at BetOnline. I think his odds and DK price are both suppressed a bit here, which makes him an obvious core play for me.
Danny Roberts ($7.1k)
This is a classic swing-for-the-fences play. There just isn’t a ton of value I like on this slate, and it’s tough to ignore the slate-breaking potential Roberts brings to the table.
Going off of the best MMA betting sites (+265 underdog), yeah, he’s a terrible pick. However, Roberts provides salary relief, MMA is volatile, and he has KO ability.
Everyone saw that when he took out Zelim Imadaev back in 2019.
The long layoff is a concern, and Ramazan Emeev is a tough matchup, but the latter also hasn’t scored a win by stoppage since 2016.
This is a risky play, but the man known as “Hot Chocolate” can throw, and he also knows how to take care of business on the mat. I’m hunting for a KO here, but this is also about getting the savings to afford the lineup I want, too.
Julian Marquez ($8.8k)
Marquez has dropped two Decision losses in his 11-fight career, but has otherwise ended everyone he’s faced.
He’s been doing it on the ground lately, scoring three submission wins over his last four bouts. He can add a fourth here, but it’s his power that I’m drawn to.
I’m also down on Jordan Wright’s general defense, so I can see Marquez ending this fight either on the feet or on the ground. Marquez is a pretty hefty -260 betting favorite, too, so I’m not crazy here.
My Top UFC Vegas 40 DFS Lineup
- Bruno Silva ($8.3k)
- Danny Roberts ($7.1k)
- Julian Marquez ($8.8k)
- Manon Fiorot ($8.9k)
- Aspen Ladd ($8.4k)
- Ariane Carnelossi ($8.5k)
These are my favorite MMA DFS picks for this weekend. The first three are my core plays, and I’ll also tack on Manon Fiorot, Aspen Ladd, and Ariane Carnelossi.
It’s a great fight card for some impressive ladies, and I think this trio is a fantastic way to wrap things up.
Fiorot is a huge favorite, Ladd comes in with a -133 price, and Carnelossi is at -157. You shouldn’t just roster favorites for the sake of rostering favorites, but I think all three of these ladies are in position to win.
My favorite of this closing trio is Fiorot, as she’s just a savage striker. She dropped a Decision in her pro debut, but she hasn’t lost since, and six of her seven wins have come with her fists.
Ladd could be risky due to her weight-making issues last week, but it’s tough to not like her here due to her elite ground-and-pound skills.
I also love Carnelossi here. She is just 1-1 in the UFC so far, but she reminded everyone of her KO ability against Na Liang.
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont Betting Advice
MMA DFS picks and UFC bets don’t always go together. I love Marquez to win and he’s a good piece to this week’s lineup, but I’m not enamored with his -260 price tag.
I also think Danny Roberts is a fine value to help make this squad work, but he isn’t really an underdog I’m chasing at UFC sportsbooks.
All things considered, these are the bets I like the most for UFC Fight Night on Saturday.
- Aspen Ladd to Win (-133)
- Ariane Carnelossi to Win (-157)
- Bruno Silva by KO/TKO (+145)
- Manon Fiorot by KO/TKO (+180)
Ladd and Carnelossi are nice prices and should win. I also think Silva’s price is fine, but I think he gets a knockout. He and Fiorot should both have a shot at doing that, and their prices for that prop are a little more inviting.
Of course, daily fantasy MMA picks (and even my bets) only tell half the story.
Adam Haynes has you covered with this week’s predictions, and you can learn something by taking a look at this breakdown of the best MMA betting strategies.