UFC Vegas 37 Predictions With Pick for Smith vs. Spann

| September 15, 2021 5:57 am PDT

A potential fight of the year candidate between Anthony Smith and Ryan Spann headlines UFC Vegas 37 this Saturday, September 18, from Las Vegas.

War is written all over this one. But bettors will be keen to see where the value in the odds for Smith vs. Spann can be found. And that’s where I can help.

I’ll be looking through the markets for the fight before making my predictions for Smith vs. Spann and will also be providing top picks and props you can target on Saturday’s top-of-the-bill clash. 

Before we get to my breakdown and betting tips for UFC Vegas 37’s headliner, let’s go over the odds together. 

Smith vs. Spann Odds Analysis

Anthony Smith to Win-170
Ryan Spann to Win+140

I’ve taken the latest Smith vs. Spann odds for UFC Vegas 37 from MyBookie.

As you can see, Smith’s odds to beat Spann come in at -170. The thought process of the oddsmakers here is likely influenced by the fact that “Lionheart” is a former title challenger who has fought some of the best in the business.

He also sits in the #6 slot in the official UFC light heavyweight rankings, while Spann has yet to break the top ten at #11.

Everything, including past glories, goes out the window when making predictions for Smith vs. Spann. It’s just one fight, after all.

Spann has the style to dominate in the cage this Saturday. He has the speed advantage, his power is a lot scarier than his five KO/TKOs suggest, and if he connects clean on the Texan’s chin, it could be game over.

Smith is the better all-rounder, in my opinion, with more refined grappling giving him clearer pathways to victory. At least, on paper. But I have a feeling that this will be Spann’s night. 

Anthony Smith Tale of the Tape Ryan Spann
33 Age 30
35-16-0 Record 19-6-0
6’4” Height 6’5”
76” Reach 79”

Official Prediction for Smith vs. Spann

  • Winner: Ryan Spann
  • Method of Victory: KO/TKO
  • Round: 2

If you’re asking who wins between Smith vs. Spann, I’m saying Spann by stoppage in the 2nd round.

Having covered every angle of the possibilities since the bout was announced, I feel the probability of this one going the distance is low. Both guys are finishers, but the question is, can Smith handle a rampaging Ryan Spann?

I don’t think so.

But rather than going deep into the detail right now, I’m going to break the fight down in detail after I cover the top bets for Smith vs. Spann. Then, I’ll get to the factors that should influence the flow of this fight.

Top Picks for Smith vs. Spann

Fight to End Under 2.5 Rounds-125
Spann to Win by KO/TKO+470
Spann Wins in Round 2+900

The top of my picks for Smith vs. Spann is the fight to end under the 2.5 round marker. 

As per my prediction above, you’ll know I’m going for Spann inside 2. But should Smith’s fortunes prevail on the night by an early submission, for example, this is a nice insurance policy.

You will have noticed the absence of a certain wager from my best bets for Smith vs. Spann.

I am, of course, talking about Spann to win. Firstly, the odds for Smith vs. Spann are decent if you’re backing the underdog (+140), but I don’t see “Superman” winning by decision or submission. Thus, +470 for Spann to win by KO/TKO is great value. 

Finally, you can get +900 if you bet on Spann to beat Smith in Round 2. The odds are very nice for this one, especially as Smith is both tough and smart enough to escape the first stanza on his feet.

But as I see it, it’s just a matter of time before Spann finds his man’s chin.

Why Bet on Spann to Win by KO/TKO?

Anthony Smith bounced back from two tough losses to Glover Teixeira, and Aleksandr Rakic registered back-to-back wins over Devin Clark and Jimmy Crute. 

But in all fairness, none of those four have the striking nous that Spann takes to the cage. 

Remember, Smith will compete for the 52nd time as a professional this weekend. That’s insane, especially for a guy that has just turned 33. Of his 16 losses, nine have come by way of KO/TKO.

The combination of a questionable chin, as well as all of that mileage, makes UFC Vegas 37 a tough one for Smith. Especially when fighting a fast and powerful guy with the ability to fly out of the traps like Spann.

Although the Texan is a very well-rounded fighter, he doesn’t do well with guys that have the speed, toughness, and power that the Memphis man possesses. Not to mention that he is also very adept on the ground, with 11 submissions from 16 wins. 

Spann’s reach advantage should nullify Smith’s jab, and his speed will help him beat the former title challenger to the punch. I can see a dominant display catapulting Spann up the ladder, where bigger and better things wait. 

Smith has a real chance of proving me wrong, of course. He’s no palooka with a puncher’s chance, as his record shows.

But the value on Spann is just far too good to pass over, given his skill set. I think he has the right style in this matchup and fully expect him to win.

More Predictions and Picks to Consider

My prediction for Spann to beat Smith comes with unpassable odds.

The fight is a great matchup, and I’m excited to see how these two engage once that first bell goes. It’s an unmissable bout, for sure, and one that could lead to a major shakeup in the division.

I have more UFC Vegas 37 picks and predictions for you to look at. You can find them alongside the team’s recommended bets for this weekend and beyond by visiting the following section of our site.

Enjoy the fight!

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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