UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad Predictions and Best Bets for All Bouts

| March 8, 2021 10:24 am PDT

My predictions for UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad are in, and I’m excited for what promises to be a big night of action at the UFC APEX this Saturday, March 13.

The card is headlined by a very interesting scrap between Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad at 170 pounds. Edwards is the betting favorite in this one, but a return from a lengthy layoff could work against him.

If you are looking to gamble on the card, I have put together my predictions for all fights at UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad to help you make your picks. You can also find the best bets, sleepers, and other betting tips for Edwards vs. Muhammad, below.

Let’s get started with the main event of the evening and work our way through the rest.

Muhammad to Beat Edwards by Decision

A fully-fit and sharp Leon Edwards is a legitimate threat to any fighter in the UFC welterweight division.

But given that Edwards last fought in July 2019, I don’t think it’s fair to expect him to be at his best on Saturday night. Especially against Belal Muhammad, who is a very good fighter with ambitions of jumping up the rankings at 170.

Muhammad has an excellent engine and will be gunning to drag “Rocky” into deep waters.

He knows his best chance of winning this fight is to exploit Edwards’ cage rust, but not in the sense of going after him early and looking for the finish.

Instead, the Palestinian will be looking to amp up the pace and tire Edwards out in the final two rounds.

When making your predictions for Edwards vs. Muhammad, surely you have considered the Brit’s recent illness and his lengthy absence from the cage? If not, I suggest you check out my betting preview for Edwards vs. Muhammad. Once you have read the rest of my predictions, of course.

Given the fight looks nailed on to go the distance, I can’t look past “Remember the Name” here.

Coming in as a plus money underdog, Muhammad’s odds to beat Edwards put him among the best sleepers for this card. But more on that later.

First, let’s move on to the rest of the fights.

Cirkunov to Beat Spann by Submission

Next up in my UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad predictions is Misha Cirkunov vs. Ryan Spann.

This is an interesting matchup that is likely to come down to whoever can impose their will from the get-go. Therefore, it could be a very short fight.

Cirkunov should have the advantages in the grappling department, while Spann will almost certainly be the more comfortable on the feet. As such, I believe the fighter that can force the other into doing things their way will come out of this one with the win.

If you’re betting on Cirkunov vs. Spann, I’d recommend looking at the Latvian to win by submission. If not, the fight to end in Round 1 is up there with the best props for UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad.

Cirkunov’s last six have ended inside the 1st while three of Spann’s six have not gone past the first stanza.

That sounds pretty ominous to me.

Rothwell to Beat Lins by Decision

Ben Rothwell vs. Phillipe Lins won’t be the greatest fight of all time.

As far as my predictions for UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad go, that’s almost a given.

Yes, it’s almost a sure thing that this will be the slowest and least-watchable bout on the card. But if you’re betting on Rothwell vs. Lins, don’t assume this heavyweight contest will be decided early.

If anything, I see this one going the full three rounds. Neither man has significant stoppage power, despite their size, and they are even less equipped in the speed department.

Ben Rothwell’s UFC Stats
Category Stat
Takedown Average 0.63
Takedown Accuracy 33%
Takedown Defense 69%
Significant Strikes LPM 3.55
Striking Accuracy 41%
Significant Strikes APM 4.75
Striking Defense 46%
Submission Average 0.3
  • LPM = Landed Per Minute
  • APM = Absorbed Per Minute

Although once known for being a showstopper, Rothwell has gone to the judges’ scorecards five times from his last six.

Lins lost his first two UFC fights, going down by decision to Andrei Arlovski, before being knocked out by Tanner Boser in June 2020.

I’ll take Rothwell to pick up a win on the cards. It’s not the most out-there of my UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad betting tips, but that’s hardly a bad thing.

Ige to Beat Tucker by Decision

One of the first UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad predictions I made when this card was announced was Dan Ige to beat Gavin Tucker by decision.

Ige makes his first appearance in the Octagon since losing to Calvin Kattar in July 2020. He faces Tucker, who stands in for Ryan Hall.

Although the Hawaiian lost that night, he showed he could live with Kattar’s highly-respected boxing chops and also demonstrated how durable he is against high-level guys.

On the flipside, Tucker looks a real talent and is proudly riding a four-fight win streak into this one.

Still, I’m not sure that the Canadian will be too comfortable standing in the pocket and trading with Ige, who will be more than happy to go to war in the center of the cage.

This should be a fun fight that ultimately goes Ige’s way.

I’ll take him by decision.

Hill to Beat Yoder by Decision

The next of my predictions for UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad focuses on a women’s strawweight fight with a little spice to it.

Angela Hill takes on Ashley Yoder in a repeat of their bout on The Ultimate Fighter 25 Finale back in 2017.

Yoder took the win by way of a unanimous decision that night, but I fancy Hill to get her revenge this Saturday.

Hill has come a long way since that loss to Yoder, and I think she is a much better all-rounder. Yoder will feel confident if the fight hits the mat, but Hill’s ground game is much better these days.

I have no qualms about adding a win for Hill to my predictions for Edwards vs. Muhammad this weekend.

Kape to Beat Nicolau by KO/TKO

The last of my UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad predictions for the main card is another interesting one.

First, Manel Kape took a bit of a gamble agreeing to this fight with Matheus Nicolau on short notice. We know that.

Kape is coming off a loss to Alexandre Pantoja in February and will have to hit the ground running to get back to winning ways against Nicolau. He has the power to cause his opponent trouble, especially as Nicolau hasn’t fought since August 2019.

But like my prediction for Edwards vs. Muhammad, the outcome of this fight could swing towards the more active fighter.

Nicolau might be a little stiff coming into the cage after such a layoff, and Kape could take advantage and score the stoppage. As this is the most likely scenario, Kape is one of my top picks for UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad.

I’m predicting a KO/TKO win for the Portuguese flyweight.

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad Prelims Predictions

If you’re gambling on Edwards vs. Muhammad and have yet to make your picks for the UFC this Saturday, you’ll be happy to know that there are some top-quality bouts on the undercard.

You can find my predictions for the prelims at UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad below.

  • Stewart to Beat Anders by Decision
  • Aldrich to Beat Casey by Decision
  • Yahya to Beat Rodriguez by Submission
  • Jourdain to Beat Rojo by Decision
  • Martinez to Beat Grant by KO/TKO
  • De Paula to Beat Frey by Decision
  • Semelsberger to Beat Witt by KO/TKO

Now my predictions for UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad are in, it’s time to look at the top bets for the night.

Best Picks for UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad

  • Hill to Beat Yoder -350
  • Cirkunov to Beat Spann -140
  • Ige to Beat Tucker -125

Below, you will find the best bets for UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad, as well as the top sleepers to get on.

Starting with the top picks for Edwards vs. Muhammad, I like Angela Hill, Misha Cirkunov, and Dan Ige to come through with big wins.

A win for Hill looks to be among the top betting tips for UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad, despite her loss to the same opponent back in 2017.

Top Sleeper Picks

  • Muhammad to Beat Edwards +200
  • Casey to Beat Aldrich +140
  • Anders vs. Stewart to End Inside the Distance +115

In my Edwards vs. Muhammad predictions and pick piece, I explain why Edwards’ odds are vastly overpriced.

Rocky coming off a lengthy layoff against a cardio machine in Muhammad, and this one could get away from him.

Muhammad has registered 16:55 mins from a possible 20 mins of fight time in his last four wins.

Belal Muhammad’s Record From His Last Four
Opponent Event and Date Result
Dhiego Lima UFC 258 – Feb 13, 2021 Decision (Unanimous)
Lyman Good UFC on ESPN 11 – Blaydes vs. Volkov – Jun 20, 2020 Decision (Unanimous)
Takashi Sato UFC 242 – Khabib vs. Poirier – Sep 07, 2019 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Curtis Millender UFC 236 – Holloway vs. Poirier – Apr 13, 2019 Decision (Unanimous)

 Courtney Casey is a nice price to win her fight with J.J. Aldrich, while Anders vs. Stewart to end inside the distance is a no-brainer.

Keep in mind that you can find the odds for these bets on our recommended UFC sportsbooks. So, check them out if you’re not feeling the bets above.

The Wrap Up

You should have a little more information to help you make your betting picks for UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad this Saturday, March 13.

I believe there will be an upset in the main event, and am backing Belal Muhammad to take the win. As I covered above, endurance is the key to this fight. Therefore, it only seems right to back the more active fighter and avoid the one that has endured a lengthy layoff.

Hopefully, my other predictions for Edwards vs. Muhammad serve you well ahead of the fights this weekend. That goes for my top bets and sleeper picks, too.

Remember, you can find more UFC predictions, picks, and betting content via the following sections on our site.

Until next time!

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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