MMA DFS Picks and Top Lineup for UFC 269 – December 11, 2021

The big MMA event we’ve been waiting for arrives this Saturday, with UFC 269 offering two intense title fights.

Narratives galore are set to dominate UFC 269. There’s the unbeatable Amanda Nunes looking to successfully defend her Bantamweight title. Then there is Charles Oliveira, who defends his belt for the first time, and will oppose Dustin Poirier, who hopes to finally make good on his undeniable promise.

Nunes, Oliveira, and Poirier are red hot coming into this card, but they are not the only big names to consider when building your MMA DFS lineups.

Last week’s UFC DFS picks were a mixed bag. Three of my picks hit, while my best bets went 2-1. My top play was Rafael Fiziev winning inside the distance at +325, which was a big win for the night.

This is a tough card to finalize MMA DFS picks for, but the upside is endless, and there is loads of value to soak up. I’ll hand out my top three MMA DFS picks for UFC 269, and get to my favorite lineup, as well as this week’s best bets.

Last week I pondered if I was giving in to nostalgia by rostering Jose Aldo. I liked his chances to win the fight and stuck to my guns, and he gutted it out.

This week, there are so many familiar faces that I can’t get caught up in that type of thinking. These matchups are so close to call across the board, too, that I don’t know if it pays to get super technical, either.

That said, here are my three favorite MMA DFS picks for UFC 269.

Sometimes you need to pay for safety. It’s always nice when it is also accompanied by nasty upside. I have no reason to stray from the Lioness, who is looking to defend her title for the sixth straight time.

I don’t see anything out of Julianna Pena that would surprise or overpower Nunes. Her goal is to get this fight to the ground, and I don’t think she has an edge in regards to strength, and she’s in major trouble if the fight stays on the feet.

Nunes first won this title back in 2016, and her game hasn’t slipped since. She’s a massive -900 favorite at the best UFC betting sites, and it’d be a ridiculous shock to see her get upset here. I don’t see it happening, and the safety/upside is baked into her slate-leading salary.

So much of mixed martial arts is about timing, work ethic, and narrative. You have your chance, you miss it, you get it again, and you maximize it.

It’s only fitting that Dustin Poirier’s journey to this title shot comes up against a guy who just lived out a similar path in Charles Oliveira. You couldn’t be happier for how far either guy has come, and it’s impossible to scoff at their dominant runs to this point.

Poirier’s explosiveness and ability to stop anyone dead in their tracks (14 KOs, 21 wins by stoppage) is what takes the cake for me here.

As you can see, Poirier isn’t just deadly on his feet. He can take this thing to the ground, too, and once there, he can create problems.

Sadly, I think Oliveira’s title run will be short-lived. It’s not because he’s not good enough, because he’s probably the more well-rounded fighter in this bout.

However, Poirier is a man on a mission, and he is a lethal striker. We saw Oliveira almost succumb to that type of style against Michael Chandler, and when you look at everything that goes into this matchup, I just can’t turn away from Poirier finally reaching the promised land.

If I am just looking for a third fighter I feel amazing about and will still include in my lineup, it’s Sean O’Malley. However, with my core plays, I like to slide in one sleeper, because you’re always going to need a value pick at some point.

Don’t get me wrong, Cody Garbrandt is a monster. He can strike with the best of them, and it truly only takes one punch for him to end a fight in the first round.

However, “No Love” is an all-or-nothing fighter that has proven he really can only win on his feet consistently, and he often leaves himself open to way too much damage.

Eating three KO losses across 16 fights doesn’t scare me away from the upset at all. BetOnline has Garbrandt coming in as a -135 favorite, but he has one win over his last five bouts.

He isn’t to be trusted, while Kara-France is honestly just as deadly with his fists. He brutally KO’d Rogerio Bontorin in his last fight, and he let everyone know that betting on “No Love” this weekend will be a mistake.

Kai Kara-France warns fans not to bet on Cody Garbrandt at UFC 269 ? #MMA #UFC269https://t.co/4wWNoi24sZ

— bjpenndotcom (@bjpenndotcom) December 7, 2021

Kara-France has not been routinely ending fights early, but he has 10 KO wins to his name, and is the more experienced, more versatile fighter in this matchup.

This bout is going to be a slugfest. Kara-France has the proven ability to win this type of battle, and Garbrandt’s chin has weakened over the years. I’m taking the value all day here and loading up elsewhere.

This is a tough slate just because I really want to roster more than half the card. Starting up top, though, I see zero reason not to click Nunes immediately and never look back.

That’s one spot I’m not worrying about. I really like the value associated with Oliveira, but the narrative leans toward Poirier, who is incredibly talented even beyond the amazing story backing him here.

Kara-France is a risky play, but he’s also an elite value pick. He could easily KO “No Love” here and be the best sleeper pick of the slate.

Neal is a dice roll, to be sure. He’s facing a very skilled fighter in Santiago Ponzinibbio, and he hasn’t been able to get wins in either of his last two fights. He has major KO power, though, and we did see Ponzinibbio get rocked last January.

I don’t mind the risk there when considering the reward, while Minner is a bit of a throw-in to close this up and make it work. While true, he’s also as scrappy as they come. He isn’t a threat on his feet, but he is a handful on the canvas (22 career submissions).

His experience and floor game should give him a chance to edge out Ryan Hall and help complete a pretty appealing tourney squad.

I also like to hand out my favorite MMA bets for a given slate. They don’t always go together, so sometimes it takes a little extra digging to turn a gross moneyline into an advantageous prop.

With that, here are my top bets for UFC 269.

If I am right about France and Minner, it’s almost a lock they win by KO and submission, respectively.

You can go with them as DFS plays, but if you bet on this card, those are two extremely alluring bets. I also love O’Malley to get the finish here. Betting on him to win at -300 isn’t very fun, but the +110 price for a knockout looks great.

I am just one voice ahead of UFC 269, and I am mostly looking at things through a DFS lens. For a detailed betting guide including odds, best bets, and more, check out Adam Haynes’ UFC 269 betting preview below.

UFC 269 Betting Preview with Predictions - Odds for Oliveira vs. Poirier and More

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