Turf Paradise Racing Picks – Thursday, February 25, 2021
Turf Paradise brings us a nine-race card of both quarter horse and thoroughbred races for Thursday, including maiden, allowance, and claiming matches for both breeds. I take a look at the three richest races (all thoroughbred matches) and discover some well-concealed win prospects.
Remember that Turf Paradise is open to a limited number of spectators, so if you attend, you’ll see the races unfold under sunny skies, with highs in the low 70s and winds at a mild eight mph.
Now, read on for my Turf Paradise picks and betting tips for Thursday, February 25, 2021.
Pick for Race 2 at Turf Paradise
This is an allowance optional claiming race for four-year-olds and upward running a distance of 7-1/2 furlongs on turf for a purse of $18,500.
For the win, I like the fifth-favored (5/1) entry in this six-horse race — Buckley Bay, ridden by Alex M. Cruz. This seven-year-old gelding moneyed 14 of his 24 career starts, winning eight of them. Buckley Bay’s obvious ability should overcome any real or imagined disadvantages Cruz may have against the more experienced jockeys in this run.
As far as value show wagers are concerned, the longest odds in this race are 6/1, so no show ticket for us in this race.
- Win: Buckley Bay 5/1
Pick for Race 3 at Turf Paradise
This is a claiming race for four-year-olds and upward running a distance of five furlongs for a purse of $13,500.
I like one of the fifth-favored entries (there are two at 6/1) in this race for the win — Sombra Negra, with Luis A. Fuentes in the irons. This six-year-old gelding finished in the money for 20 of his 28 career starts, winning 13.
For comparison’s sake, the 5/2 morning line favorite, Major Munnings, moneyed 14 of his 25 career starts, winning six.
The longest odds in this seven-horse race are 12/1, but I don’t see that entry as worth the risk, even if the morning line had him at 50/1.
- Win: Sombra Negra 6/1
Picks for Race 9 at Turf Paradise
This is an allowance optional claiming race for four-year-olds and upward running a distance of one mile on turf for a purse of $16,500.
I like the second-favored (4/1) entry in this race — Bull Hollow, with Karlo Lopez aboard. This four-year-old gelding moneyed five of his six career starts, winning one.
In comparison, the 3/1 morning line favorite, the four-year-old gelding Vintage Kitten, moneyed four of his 13 career starts, winning one.
At 12/1, Jacks Outlaw, with Leslie Mawing in the irons, looks good for a value show bet — if not an across-the-board wager. This four-year-old colt moneyed seven of his 11 career starts, winning two. His speed figures compare favorably to any of the other contenders in this field.
- Win: Bull Hollow 4/1
- Show/Across the Board: Jacks Outlaw 12/1
More Picks for Thursday
If you like profitable surprises, be sure to check out the other two tracks I reviewed for Thursday: