Tuesday’s MLB Predictions and Betting Tips (May 11, 2021)

| May 11, 2021 5:12 am PDT

Monday’s smallish slate offered just a handful of betting opportunities. The game I had circled in Colorado ended up getting rained out. With no action to account for, boy, am I glad that Tuesday has arrived. The entire league is scheduled to play, as is standard procedure on Tuesdays. That means there are plenty of games to talk about.

The segment below showcases MLB predictions, while my top upset picks and best bets of the day follow.

MLB Game Winner Predictions for May 11th

  • Giants to beat the Rangers
  • Indians to beat the Cubs
  • Pirates to beat the Reds
  • Rays to beat the Yankees
  • Phillies to beat the Nationals
  • Orioles to beat the Mets
  • Tigers to beat the Royals
  • Red Sox to beat the Athletics
  • Braves to beat the Blue Jays
  • Brewers to beat the Cardinals
  • Angels to beat the Astros
  • White Sox to beat the Twins
  • Padres to beat the Rockies
  • Marlins to beat the Diamondbacks
  • Dodgers to beat the Mariners

*Stats referenced are through Sunday

Other than the night-capper in Los Angeles featuring Walker Buehler on the bump, there aren’t many games with substantial money-line favorites. You’re laying money on both sides in Pittsburgh; same thing in Arizona. The games being played in Philadelphia and Milwaukee are virtual toss-ups as well.

I made predictions for those matchups but am in no hurry to get money down. At least not on those games. As for the games I was excited to lock in, here’s a look at my top MLB picks on May 11.

Top MLB Upset Picks for May 11th

  • Rays +115 (over the Yankees)
  • Orioles +128 (over the Mets)
  • Angels +126 (over the Astros)

Heading into Tuesday night’s AL East tilt at Tropicana Field, the two clubs on hand are extremely evenly matched. That’s not just hearsay; the numbers tell the same story.

Comparing the Yankees and Rays in 2021
Winning % Batting Average Runs/Game Slugging %
Yankees .529 .222 4.25 .381
Rays .528 .222 4.06 .368

The two starting pitchers (on Tuesday) ERAs are almost identical as well.

The top MLB betting sites installing New York at -115 is an example of the built-in juice applied due to the expectation that the public will bet on the Yankees. Remember – this game will be nationally televised on ESPN.

Zig when the public zags, or in this case, back the Rays to win this one at home.

I had to do a double-take when I saw the odds for the Orioles vs. Mets game. Once I clarified that Baltimore was hanging out at +128, I immediately tabbed this game as one of my best baseball picks for Tuesday.

Marcus Stroman has been good this season, but he’s undoubtedly slowed down after a spectacular start.

Stroman has failed to pitch into the 6th inning in three straight outings and has surrendered 18 hits across his last 14 innings. Hence, New York has lost each of the last three games Stroman was on the hill.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Baltimore has won three in a row with John Means pitching. The 28-year-old southpaw put an emphatic stamp on his dominant start tossing a no-hitter his last time out. I just find it blasphemous that we can grab the O’s at plus-money in this spot.

And not just plus-money – but some serious plus-money at that.

Interested in betting on Shohei Ohtani and the Halos at +126 against Lance McCullers and the ’Stros? I was at first glance, and I was even more intrigued once I dove into the numbers.

Talk about being in rarefied air. You know you’re doing something special when you’re on a two-person list with Babe Ruth.

Leading the league in homers and among the league leaders in RBI, Ohtani limits batters to a .113 clip at the plate and is sporting a nifty 14.5 SO9 (strikeouts per nine innings). Tuesday will be the first time the Houston lineup looks at Shohei in 2021; the Angels bats have already seen (and beaten) Lance McCullers Jr.

Best MLB Bets for Tuesday, May 11th

  • Indians over the Cubs (-163)
  • White Sox over the Twins (-125)

Shane Bieber hasn’t been invincible like he was throughout 2020. However, the Indians’ ace has been pretty doggone good. Shane leads the majors in quality starts (7) and is the only pitcher in baseball who’s thrown a QS in every one of his appearances.

Armed with 68 Ks in 42.1 innings (at least 9 Ks in every start), Bieber’s on his way to posting his second straight season toting video-game-like numbers. Cleveland is 5-3 at home as a favorite and is leaning on the reigning Cy Young champ. For what it’s worth, the Cubbies are just 3-7 on the road as an underdog.

What more does Dylan Cease need to do to start gaining respect from the bookies? The 25-year-old may have been underwhelming early on, but he’s been dynamite in back-to-back starts and is eager for more.

Dylan Cease – By the Numbers in His Last Two Starts
Date Opponent Innings Hits Earned Runs Strikeouts Walks
4/29 Tigers 7.0 3 0 9 0
5/4 Reds 6.0 1 0 11 3

The White Sox won these two games by a combined score of 20-0. While Twins starter Kenta Maeda is heading in the wrong direction in 2021 compared to a season ago, everything about Cease is on a sincere uptick.

Book the Chi Sox here and be happy you’re only laying -125. I could see this line soaring to Chicago -150 by the time the first pitch is thrown.

Michael Wynn
Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for GamblingSites.com on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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