Predictions for the ToyotaCare 250 – NASCAR Xfinity Series (2022)

| March 30, 2022 7:57 am PDT

Last week couldn’t have worked out much better for my Xfinity Series picks. A.J. Allmendinger and Ross Chastain battled for the win, with Allmendinger pulling it out as my top pick. I’m starting to build some momentum between the three NASCAR series.

Following two chaotic races, we should have more tame results at Richmond Raceway. The 0.75-mile oval will mark the first short track race of 2022.

Let’s see if my momentum will carry over to Richmond. Check out my top picks for the ToyotaCare 250.

John Hunter Nemechek (+550)

John Hunter Nemechek will make his third Xfinity Series start of 2022, but this will come with Joe Gibbs Racing. That’s a significant upgrade from Sam Hunt Racing.

Last year, Nemechek had three starts with Joe Gibbs Racing in the Xfinity Series. He didn’t do much at Talladega, but check out his other two results.

  Finishing Position Laps Led
Texas 1st 92
Phoenix 6th 39

Nemechek overcame a pit road penalty with under 60 laps to go to win the Fall race at Texas. Now those results are great, but what about his Richmond numbers? Well, they look pretty good.

He has a pair of top 10 at the track in the Xfinity Series. That includes a third-place finish in last year’s Fall race with Sam Hunt Racing. Imagine what he can accomplish with Joe Gibbs Racing.

Nemechek went toe to toe with Kyle Busch in last year’s Truck Series race at Richmond. He came from 18th to lead 124 of 250 laps and capture the victory. I’d say Nemechek knows how to get around this track.

Driving for Joe Gibbs Racing gives him the upper hand. He had success with the team last season, and I expect that to continue.

Ty Gibbs (+550)

Ty Gibbs has had a bit of a roller-coaster season. The 19-year-old is the only Xfinity Series driver with multiple wins in 2022. However, he has finished outside the top 10 in three of his six races.

He also hasn’t led many laps, so I can understand if you want to proceed with caution. Still, NASCAR fans know Gibbs is capable of turning it on at any time. That time could be this weekend at Richmond.

Last season’s Richmond race was a bit wild. Various pit strategies and multiple late-race restarts led to misleading results. One of those came at the expense of Gibbs. Check out his numbers.

  • Average Position: 4th (1st)
  • Fastest Laps: 33 (2nd)
  • Laps Led: 67 (1st)
  • Driver Rating: 126.9 (1st)

Those stats tell you that Gibbs had a race-winning car and should’ve finished top three. Well, his great performance resulted in a seventh-place finish. Sometimes, it’s not all about the final result.

Gibbs should show up to Richmond with race-winning speed. This isn’t DFS, so we don’t need to worry about Gibbs not leading laps. All that matters is that he’s there when it matters.

Justin Allgaier (+650) 

We go from two young drivers to one of the veterans of the Xfinity Series. Justin Allgaier opened the season with four top 10 finishes, but he is coming off back-to-back finishes outside the top 30. He’s moving in the wrong direction, but Richmond presents an excellent bounce-back opportunity.

Allgaier struggled early in his career at Richmond. However, he flipped a switch when he joined JR Motorsports in 2016. He came close to winning a few times but always came up short.

He crashed out of the Fall 2018 race, but check out his Richmond numbers since that race.

  Finishing Position Laps Led (of 250)
2019 3rd 86
2019 4th 0
2020 1st 78
2020 1st 135
2021 4th 0

Allgaier finally found victory lane at Richmond in 2020. He battled Justin Haley, passing him with 29 laps to go to score the victory. Allgaier looked even better the following day, leading 135 laps en route to the win.

He was among my top picks to win the 2022 Xfinity Series Championship, but we haven’t seen Allgaier contend for the win. It’s time to change that, and Richmond is the perfect track. I’d watch out for him on Saturday.

Daniel Hemric (+1500)

Daniel Hemric’s Kaulig Racing tenure isn’t off to the best start. The 2021 Xfinity Series Champion has back-to-back finishes of 25th or worse and hasn’t led a lap in four straight races. It’s not looking good for Hemric, but I think he presents tremendous value for Richmond.

The top NASCAR betting sites have six drivers with (+700) odds or better. Surprisingly, Hemric isn’t one of those drivers. After looking at his Richmond numbers, I’m not sure why the sportsbooks aren’t giving him more respect.

  • 5 starts
  • 3 top-five finishes
  • 4 top 10 finishes
  • 102 laps led
  • 9.0 average finish

He had an issue in the Spring 2018 race, but that’s the only time he finished worse than sixth at the track. I will gladly take those numbers for a driver with (+1500) odds.

Kaulig Racing showed a ton of speed at Richmond with Justin Haley. He had a pair of runner-up finishes, including leading 51 laps in the Spring 2020 race. Hopefully, that team success will carry over to Hemric.

Hemric waited a long time to score his first career NASCAR victory. Hopefully, he won’t have to wait much longer for his second.

Who Will Win the 2022 ToyotaCare 250? 

  • Justin Allgaier

The Joe Gibbs Racing cars should be strong at Richmond, but I’m going with the veteran driver in Justin Allgaier. Allgaier has had the dominant car in three of the last five Richmond races. It’s time for him to show he is a true championship contender.

It’s hard to find much value this week, but Daniel Hemric stands out. I wouldn’t blame you for taking a shot on him.

Make sure you don’t miss Saturday’s race at 1:30 p.m. ET on FS1. Feel free to check our motorsports picks for more NASCAR and Formula 1 content.

Nicholas Sterling

Nicholas has been a Sports Writer with since May 2021. He has a rich sports background, writing about NASCAR, NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Golf, etc. Nick is always ready for a new challenge.

He enjoys rooting on D.C. sports teams, including the Commanders, Wizards, and Capitals.

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