Top Matchup Bets for the Tokyo Olympic Golf Tournament

| July 27, 2021 1:21 am PDT

The countdown for the Men’s Olympic Golf Tournament is on. And it’s turned from days into hours.

After previewing the action at Kasumigaseki Country Club from all angles, here’s where I dive into my top matchup picks. Additional betting tips for the Olympic Golf Tournament can be found in the final section; however, this page hones in on uncovering value in the head-to-head selection.

Ultimately, the goal was to generate three plus-money H2H golf picks for the Tokyo Olympics. Here’s what I came up with.

Tommy Fleetwood (+100) Over Si Woo Kim

Tommy Fleetwood loves the Olympics. He’s been vocal about how appreciative and excited he is for this opportunity; his positive outlook gives him the mentality of having “everything to gain and nothing to lose.”

On the flip side, Si Woo Kim has a lot to lose. He’s playing for his livelihood – quite literally.

A podium finish means Kim will be exempt from military service and can continue persevering on the PGA Tour. 4th place or worse means Si Woo must embark on his military duties before his 28th birthday (Kim is currently 26).

And while Fleetwood has connected on five straight cuts (33rd or better in three straight), Kim’s recent game log isn’t exactly inspiring.

Si Woo Kim’s Last Three Starts
Date Tournament Result
7/11 John Deere Classic WD
7/4 Rocket Mortgage Classic T58
6/27 Travelers Championship MC

Just three red numbers among his last 11 completed rounds on Tour, there’s no doubt Si Woo will be fighting an uphill battle in Tokyo. Latch onto Tommy while he’s still available at even money.

Cameron Smith (+106) Over Shane Lowry

Shane Lowry poured a lot of emotion into his title defense at The Open. He’s got one eye on Whistling Straits for the Ryder Cup in September. I’m not saying the Irishman won’t be invigorated to compete for The Emerald Isle at the Summer Games. Still, we do know fellow countryman Rory McIlroy told the media that he’s far from patriotic.

What we don’t have to wonder is how hyped Cameron Smith is to be in Tokyo, as you can see by this tweet.

Nor do we have to hope that his short game will show up – the 27-year-old Aussie clocks in 3rd in one-putt % and 8th in three-putt avoidance. That deadly combination adds up to Smith leading the PGA Tour in putting average (1.702).

This endorsement has nothing to do with being down on Lowry (40th in OWGR); it has everything to do with capturing the value attached to Smith (28th in OWGR).

Mackenzie Hughes (+108) Over Jhonattan Vegas

It appears that a T2 at the 3M has caused a bit of an overreaction at the best places to bet on golf at the Olympics. I won’t knock Vegas for playing this past week or for the fact that he finished T50 out of 60 golfers at the 2016 edition at Rio.

Instead, I’ll simply point out a few figures to help clear the air.

Comparing Mackenzie Hughes and Jhonattan Vegas in Tokyo
OWGR Top-20 Odds DK Salary
Hughes 53 +125 $8,000
Vegas 95 +140 $7,400

There’s no question Vegas’s game has been on the uptick as of late, but so has Mackenzie’s. Hughes played in the final group on Sunday at the US Open (T15) and most recently finished 6th at Royal St George’s. He’ll tee off Thursday at Kasumigaseki CC, looking for his eighth straight round in the 60s.

More Olympic Golf Betting Picks

I began breaking down the field in Tokyo with a look at golf power rankings at the Olympics. News of Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau withdrawing throws a bit of a wrench into that list, and it throws a major wrinkle into my original pick in this Olympic Golf betting preview with predictions.

With Rahm out, pivot to Xander Schauffele or Viktor Hovland to stand at the top of the podium. More support for Schauffele and Hovland can be found in my DFS picks for the tournament.

Michael Wynn
Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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