Top Betting Picks for the 2021 BMW Championship

| August 24, 2021 1:44 pm PDT

Just 70 men remain in the race for $15 million and the title of 2021 FedEx Cup champion. Of those 70, 69 have made the trip to Baltimore for the second leg of the Playoffs (Patrick Reed WD citing pneumonia).

For the majority of the field, Caves Valley Golf Club represents a brand new test. The PGA hasn’t held an event in Charm City since 1962. However, there are a handful of players who have competed here before.

Georgia won the 2005 NCAA Men’s Golf Championship at this Tom Fazio design – Chris Kirk and Kevin Kiser each tied for 13th, helping the Dawgs capture the crown. Two years later, the United States won the Palmer Cup at this venue – led by the likes of Brian Harman, Dustin Johnson, Webb Simpson, Billy Horschel, and Chris Kirk.

With a little background information out of the way, let’s move into my top BMW Championship picks.

Two Sleeper Picks for the BMW Championship

Considering how tough it is to qualify for this week’s event, golf aficionados won’t find many under-the-radar names on the tee sheet. Having said that, having the “who’s who” in golf on hand means the “lesser names” get shoved down the betting sheet.

Of the golfers priced favorably, a couple of names piqued my interest.

Sam Burns (+5000)

I didn’t nail all of my bold golf predictions that were laid out in January. On the other hand, my premonition of Sam Burns making it to East Lake is coming to fruition. Slotted 12th in the current FedEx Cup standings, Sam’s been on a season-long tear and is showing absolutely no signs of slowing down.

Burns backed up his playoff loss in Memphis with a solid showing at THE NORTHERN TRUST (T21), and the fact that this is a new venue only aids his case.

Sam Burns – By the Numbers This Season
Stat Value PGA Tour Rank
Birdie Average 4.39 4
Par-4 Scoring Average 3.98 11
Par-5 Scoring Average 4.53 9
SG: Putting 0.520 15
SG: Approach 0.597 17

Despite the fact that he’s quickly turning into a household name, there are still 23 names listed ahead of him at MyBookie. At least for now.

Billy Horschel (+10000)

I highlighted the fact that Billy Horschel was part of the winning team at the 2007 Palmer Cup here at Caves Valley. What I failed to mention is that Billy was one of two golfers at that event (Brian Harman) to go undefeated in his matches (4-0).

We know Horschel can get hot in the postseason, and he’s rolling with some good vibes on the heels of shooting 66-69 during the final two days at Liberty National. Perhaps his recent game log isn’t scorching with good results, but just one missed cut in the last five months reminds us of his consistency.

One good swing thought, and a hot putter and Billy should soar into contention.

Two Best Bets for the BMW Championship

Jon Rahm is the overwhelming favorite to be the last man standing Sunday in Baltimore. Xander Schauffele is next in line before the value opens up with golfers priced north of +2000.

From the second tier, here are two names I kept circling back to.

Justin Thomas (+2200)

After taking the advice of a 15-year-old during an early week Q&A, Justin Thomas went back to his old putter at THE NORTHERN TRUST. Somebody should tell that teenager to send JT an invoice.

Thomas gained strokes with his flat stick during all four rounds at Liberty National. He ended the week +4.499 on the greens (11th).

Sauntering into Owing Mills averaging 67.6 over his last nine rounds, Justin’s latest T4 showing hints that more good golf is in store. Those who end up passing on his +2200 price tag available at the top sites to bet on golf, just remember…

You had your chance.

Rory McIlroy (+2800)

For the first time since November of 2009, Rory McIlroy is ranked outside of the top 15 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR). McIlroy’s T43 at THE NORTHERN TRUST dropped the four-time Major winner to #16 in the latest rankings.

While some view that as a negative, I look at it as motivation. Sitting 28th in the FedEx Cup standings, “Rors” can ill afford to spend time sulking and must play well to advance to the TOUR Championship. The good news is he’s making plenty of birdies, and his putter is cooperating.

Case in point, McIlroy carded 20 birdies at Liberty National and ended the week 18th in SG: Putting (+3.366). Once his ball-striking starts clicking – and we all know that’s just a matter of time – he’ll be back on page one of leaderboards like he belongs.

On board with any of these BMW Championship predictions thus far?

Matchup Bet – Kevin Streelman (+110) Over Jason Kokrak

It’s slim pickings this week searching for “plus-money” in the matchup selection. One that does catch my attention is backing Kevin Streelman at +110 over Jason Kokrak. Both are solid players, although one is playing a bit better than the other at the moment.

Kevin’s last three starts came at The Open, the Wyndham Championship, and THE NORTHERN TRUST. He finished 19th, 7th, and 64th, respectively.

Jason played in each of those events as well. He finished 34th at the British Open and MC’d at Sedgefield and Liberty National.

Can Streelman make it four consecutive tournaments beating Kokrak head-to-head? I guess we’ll find out.

Once you lock in these BMW Championship betting picks, don’t forget to bet on the Korn Ferry Tour Playoffs. And remember that the Champions Tour kicks off on Friday.

Michael Wynn
Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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