Tony Ferguson vs. Beneil Dariush – UFC 262

| May 13, 2021 6:55 am PDT

A crucial bout between Tony Ferguson and Beneil Dariush is your co-main event for UFC 262 this Saturday, May 15, in Houston, Texas.

I’ll be making my betting predictions and pick for Ferguson vs. Dariush for you today, hoping that it might help you win money betting on the fight. I’ll be very keen to see if Ferguson can get the job done against a tough opponent and provide my analysis of the bout as we go along.

If it’s Ferguson vs. Dariush betting odds and best bets you’re looking for, I have them for you, too. I’ll be passing judgment on those odds, as well as sharing where you can bet on the Ferguson vs. Dariush fight in this betting preview.

Let’s start with who wins the fight and how. 

Ferguson or Dariush – Who Wins?

  • Tony Ferguson by Decision

If you’re betting on Ferguson vs. Dariush, you probably know that “El Cucuy” is not the fighter he once was.

Having amassed a 12-fight win streak, Ferguson is now winless from his last two. He turned 37 in February, which makes him a little on the “twilight” end of his career. More than that, he took a lot of punishment against Justin Gaethje before being beaten convincingly by Charles Oliveira in December.

But I’m not completely sold on the idea that Ferguson is totally done. And when I explain my prediction for Ferguson to beat Dariush a little later, it might give you a little food for thought.

Let’s see what the bookmakers are saying about this fight before we get into that.

Latest Odds for Ferguson vs. Dariush

Tony Ferguson to Win+150
Beneil Dariush to Win-185

First off, there is no way that I am betting on Dariush to beat Ferguson at these odds.

Although he is an excellent competitor that comes in at five years younger than his man, Dariush is not an elite-level lightweight. At least, he’s not there yet. 

Ferguson’s odds to beat Dariush at UFC 262 are excellent. You can find them over at Bovada.

Now, I can see why many fans are betting on Dariush to get the biggest win of his career, but the value is with Ferguson. At +150, he is a top choice in this fight, especially as it is a three-round affair.

Is there even more money to be made on this bout? I think so. Let’s move on to some top bets and betting tips for Ferguson vs. Dariush before I break this one down.

Top Bets for Ferguson vs. Dariush

Fight to Go the Distance-163
Ferguson to Win+150
Ferguson to Win by Decision+300

I’m sticking with the three best bets for Ferguson vs. Dariush above.

First, the fight looks like it will go the distance. The odds for Ferguson-Dariush to reach the final bell are a good bet, as neither man are explosive knockout artists. Both have good chins, with Ferguson’s, in particular, rock solid.

Of the top bets for Ferguson vs. Dariush online, I like Ferguson by decision. Those odds would have been unthinkable just one year ago, and they could end up making someone a lot of money on Saturday. If Ferguson wins, that is.

Speaking of which, you can get a very nice price on Ferguson to emerge as the victor, regardless of how he gets the job done.

This brings us to my breakdown of Tony Ferguson vs. Beneil Dariush. So, strap in, and I’ll get to it.

Why Ferguson Beats Dariush

I would be lying through my front teeth if I said that I didn’t want to see Tony Ferguson win this fight.

His contribution to the UFC over the past decade has been a major part of its success. The guy did everything within his control to reach the apex of the sport of MMA, but things just seemed to go wrong at the final hurdle. So many times.

Still, I would never allow emotion to get the better of me when betting on Ferguson vs. Dariush. Therefore, I’ve treated this fight just like any other.

And although I have broken this one down objectively, it’s still Ferguson that comes out with the win.

Yes, he’s on the slide. But there is no way that Ferguson’s skillset, heart, and dedication can capitulate as drastically as some believe it has. He was battered by Gaethje and beaten convincingly by Oliveira, but these two guys are monsters. Both fights, funnily enough, were in front of no crowd.

At Houston, Ferguson will walk into that cage riled up and ready to shock everyone that has doubted him. He has been working with legendary boxing coach Freddie Roach for the past few months and knows nothing short of a win will do here.

Dariush is a solid dude with excellent grappling. But he will be forced to hang with Ferguson on the feet for most of the fight. Can he deal with the pressure Ferguson brings? I don’t think so.

I’m not sure he’s going to have the answer to the sheer awkwardness and unpredictability of El Cucuy for a start. If he can’t get him to the ground, we could even see a stoppage in favor of Ferguson.

More UFC 262 Predictions and Picks

That’s pretty much it for my predictions and betting pick for Ferguson vs. Dariush.

I’m going with a decision win for the former interim UFC lightweight champ. And at odds of +150, it’ll be even sweeter to see Ferguson take the win in front of a packed crowd in Texas.

Some of Saturday’s fights are going to be unmissable. The main event, a UFC lightweight title scrap between Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler, being the best of them all.

Make sure to check out the following sections of our site for more odds, bets, picks, and betting content for UFC 262!

Enjoy the fights!

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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