TNF Player Prop Bets – Packers vs. 49ers (NFL Week 9, 2020)
This week’s Thursday Night Football game is one of the toughest to bet on in recent memory. Usually we’d just bet on the San Francisco 49ers to coast past the Green Bay Packers.
They’re at home, they’ve slapped the Packers around the last two times they faced them, and Green Bay isn’t at full strength. Neither are the Niners, though, as they have an insane 13 regular starters sidelined with injury.
It’s a weird spot, especially on a short week. If you want to throw caution to the wind and bet on this game, though, maybe you can gain a little extra insight from our week 9 Packers vs. 49ers betting pick.
Personally, I’d prefer to just target the Thursday Night Football player props in this game. Once we know for sure who is actually playing in said contest, of course.
For now, we know that the 49ers will be without their starting quarterback, their top tight end, most of their running backs, and a good chunk of their best defensive players. Green Bay, meanwhile, will be down their top two running backs, and could still be without some other key bodies.
Let’s see how bettors can potentially exploit all of this with a look at my favorite player props for Thursday Night Football in week 9.
Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-208)
I’d prefer a little better value here, but Rodgers has accomplished the feat of tossing multiple scores in every game but one in 2020.
The 49ers are still going to be a tough out on the road, but A-Rod simply is not facing the same stingy defense that gave him problems twice a year ago. Win or lose, I like Rodgers to fire in at least two passing scores in this one.
Throw in the fact that Green Bay’s running back depth chart is just eviscerated at the moment, and this prop feels like a total lock.
Jamycal Hasty Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The 49ers are about as banged up as anyone I’ve seen, kind of ever. San Francisco is down to their fourth-string running back these days, and they’ve lost 13 different starters due to injury.
San Francisco is hurting, but for a run-heavy team like this, they couldn’t be getting a better break on a short week. Keep in mind that the 49ers are still at home, and they face a ghastly Packers run defense.
I mean, it’s so bad that Packers DC Mike Pettine could lose his job.
Not only did the Niners twice completely work Green Bay on the ground last year, but the Packers reminded everyone of their defensive weakness when they got abused by Dalvin Cook in week eight.
Hasty doesn’t need to come close to Cook’s explosion to hand bettors a winning bet, though. The explosive runner needs 68 yards, and I don’t see much logic to suggest he won’t get there.
Davante Adams Over 7.5 Receptions (-110)
This is another bet we should feel pretty good about, for a number of reasons. The first, is that the Niners don’t really have anyone capable of stifling Adams right now.
San Francisco’s defense is just shredded with injuries, and that includes the usually stingy Richard Sherman. Adams has also seen a ton of work in games he’s managed to stay healthy in 2020, too.
Adams has seen 10+ targets in four of five starts, and he’s caught at least seven balls three times. After a somewhat down week in terms of converted volume, I wouldn’t be shocked if his targets and receptions ticked back up on TNF.
Oh, and the Packers are hurting badly in their backfield, likely forcing them to turn to Tyler Ervin and Dexter Williams.
Now that Packers RB Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon are out Thursday night against SF due to COVID protocols, Green Bay’s lone remaining healthy RBs are Dexter Williams and Tyler Ervin.— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 3, 2020
Packers remain unsure if RB Aaron Jones will return from his calf injury vs. 49ers.
All of this points to a big night for Adams.
This is a weird game to bet a lot of money on, just because nobody really knows how to price it.
Green Bay is impacted by COVID-19, the 49ers have so many absent players, and San Francisco was even forced to shut their facility down this week due to their own coronavirus scare.
Will this game even play as scheduled? That’s certainly a concern, but as things stand, you can bet on the winner, and also potentially profit from some players props.
The question is which player props for Thursday Night Football are worth attacking? The Rodgers prop feels like a home run, even if the price isn’t amazing. The Adams bet plays into that, and the Hasty wager has everything to do with Green Bay’s atrocious run defense.
All things considered, there are some fun paths to making some money betting on TNF player prop bets this week. Hopefully the above props treat you well. If you’re looking for a bit more betting action, hit up these week nine NFL betting columns.