TNF Player Prop Bets – Jets vs. Broncos (NFL Week 4, 2020)

| September 30, 2020 10:05 am PDT

If you followed along and used my Thursday Night Football player prop bets last week, you may have been quite pleased.

Gardner Minshew II topped 266 passing yards (-114), and Ryan Fitzpatrick got his two touchdowns (-130), giving us two converted bets. Chris Conley couldn’t turn eight targets into 44+ receiving yards, though, and prevented us from a bigger night.

This week’s TNF clash is all of the disgusting. The New York Jets and Denver Broncos are both 0-3, though, so as bad as this thing looks on paper, something is going to break.

Brett Rypien is under center for Denver, however, while Adam Gase is a good bet to be the first NFL coach fired. It’s a mess no matter which way you look, but the goal is to find a way to profit from it.

To do that, let’s dive into the madness with my favorite player props for Thursday Night Football in week four.

Melvin Gordon to Score a Touchdown (-121)

You can find this wager at a number of online sportsbooks, but this is the best price you’ll find. The wager is simple; will Melvin Gordon score a touchdown on Thursday Night Football?

I see no reason why he can’t. First, he has a big role, as Phillip Lindsay remains out with an injury.

Second, because the Broncos have a woeful quarterback situation, and are pushing Brett Rypien out there as the starter.

If Denver is smart, they check down to Gordon and their other running backs in the passing game, and also run as much as possible.

Gordon should have a ton of touches in this one, and he’ll also see most of the goal-line opportunities. If the Broncos are to have success and score on TNF, Gordon punching in at least one touchdown figures to be part of it. The best part? This prop doesn’t discriminate as far as what type of score Gordon needs.

Melvin Gordon to Catch Over 2.5 Passes (-160)

The value isn’t quite as good, but I think this is still a really nice bet we can hammer with confidence. The return isn’t amazing, but the more you bet, the more it’ll be worth it in the end.

Gordon should be a lock for three or more receptions on Thursday Night Football. He’s recorded 3, 2, and 4 catches through his first three games, and now he has another inexperienced quarterback under center.

Conventional wisdom suggests Gordon should be as busy as ever here, and the matchup also favors him. New York isn’t very good defensively, and they also have had issues tracking running backs as receivers.

The Jets have allowed the 8th most receptions to the position in 2020, as well as the 11th most receiving yards. Necessity, talent, role, and matchup all combine to make this a relatively safe TNF player prop.

Sam Darnold to Top 221.5 Passing Yards (-110)

I’m seeing Darnold’s week four passing yardage wager ranging from this low 221.5 total, up to 226.5. You’re getting the best yardage total and odds here, but be sure to shop around at your favorite NFL betting sites.

Regardless, all of these yardage totals feel pretty low. Yes, the Jets are a total mess, but this is as good of a spot as any for Adam Gase and co. to get things back on track a bit.

New York is among my favorite week four NFL upset picks because of that, and I tend to think they can have some success offensively. Denver is a shell of themselves defensively, as they’re down their top run defender and best pass rusher.

More specifically, the Broncos have given up the 6th most passing yards in the league.

Whether Darnold finally gets things going or is playing from behind all game, this feels like a low total to top.

KJ Hamler to Top 33.5 Receiving Yards (EVEN)

This is another Thursday Night Football player prop bet I like, as injuries have vaulted the speedy rookie into a solid role.

Hamler has the explosive ability to crush this yardage prop on one play. We haven’t seen that pan out just yet, but he has a role after seeing five targets in week three, and seven in week two.

Hamler registered 48 yards in week two, and 30 last week. I think he can make a big play against the Jets, but even if he doesn’t, the volume and game flow support the Over here.

Summary

Betting on TNF player props is always going to take a little guts, but doing so with this specific matchup really should bum you out.

I still think there are paths to success for NFL bettors, as the above Thursday Night Football prop bets should give us a chance at making some money.

You can also bet on the game itself. Just check out our week four Jets vs. Broncos betting pick before placing any wagers.

Noah Davis
Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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